Italy goes to the polls next weekend in a general election which could bring Silvio Berlusconi's five year premiership to an end. His governing coalition is trailing by a consistent four points in the polls against the centre-left alliance led by Romano Prodi. It has been a dirty, personalised campaign, driven in good part by Mr Berlusconi's fear that out of office he will lose the impunity that has shielded him from persistent accusations of corruption and media manipulation.
The fact that his right-wing coalition has lasted so long in office is one of its major achievements. For most of the post-war period governments lasted little more than a year on average, creating an unhealthy reliance on unaccountable technocrats and fragmenting the political system. Economic buoyancy compensated for these shortcomings in political structure most of that time. But a close result risks Italian politics becoming unstable once again at a time when a stagnant economy is more than ever in need of firm governing.
Mr Berlusconi promised substantial economic reforms and growing prosperity for Italians when he came to power. Although he has campaigned on a carefully selective series of positive achievements, including reduced taxation, less regulation, improved pensions and reduced unemployment, he has not delivered major change and completes his term presiding over a weaker economy than he inherited. Many indicators bear out the picture, including a loss of competitiveness, reduced exports, low rates of foreign direct investment, sluggish growth and growing budget deficits. Major structural problems face an economy which has relied for its dynamism on an extensive small and medium business sector which now faces formidable competition from China and India in textiles, shoes, white goods and furniture.
In the last stages of the campaign Mr Berlusconi has tried to divert attention from these economic weaknesses by rubbishing his critics as left-wing stooges and by warning that Mr Prodi would preside over increased taxation to fund his programme. Some of this could stick, since the opposition plans are short on such detail. Much may depend on tonight's final television confrontation between the two men.
Mr Prodi has fought a stolid and rather unadverturous campaign, in an effort to hold his coalition bloc together. The 47.2 million Italian electorate is pretty evenly divided between those who despise Mr Berlusconi and those who hate communism. The outcome will depend on which bloc makes the better case to protect living standards.