Word is out about Kenny - in both Irish and English

Drapier: Earwigging on the plinth is unacceptable behaviour, of course, but even Drapier could not resist eavesdropping on an…

Drapier: Earwigging on the plinth is unacceptable behaviour, of course, but even Drapier could not resist eavesdropping on an intriguing tête-à-tête between Enda Kenny and Gerry Adams in the grounds of Leinster House during the week.

Unfortunately, as one of those who has gained no discernible benefit from being force-fed Irish in school, I hadn't a clue what they were talking about.

Yet at least this vignette illustrated Kenny's bona fides on the issue of compulsory Irish, which are clearly greater than those hardline Gaelgeoirs who are keener on defending their lucrative piece of turf than promoting a living language.

Meanwhile, the leaders of all the Northern parties are getting interested in Kenny as FG fortunes rise. Indeed, just yesterday he met DUP and Ulsterl Unionist leaders Ian Paisley and Sir Reg Empey in Belfast for the first time. I'm not sure he's on the Christmas card lists of every world leader, but even this is a significant gauge of Kenny's rising credibility on the back of his rapid improvement into a genuinely polished media performer, and his ability to beat in time with the national pulse on issues such as safe streets, rip-off Ireland and the waste of public money.

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Consequently, the leader - he was initially seen not merely as the weakest link for FG but the reason they had no chance of winning the next election - is now one of their real strengths.

And if they are to gain power, he has to be, because Bertie remains FF's best selling point. He's still the undisputed champ, but to retire undefeated he has to emerge from an election which is shaping up to be a genuine battle.

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Having said that, the ability of the Shinners to run rings around Bertie isn't just confined to the peace process. They're even calling the shots on the Taoiseach's home patch in Dublin Central. The latest debacle over the secret deal in relation to the on-the-runs shows the full extent of Adams's supremacy at the negotiating table. But even more exasperating is how SF appears to have outflanked the most cunning of them all by dictating who will run with him at the general election.

The emergence of Shinner siren Mary Lou MacDonald as the party's election candidate is likely to force The Bert to ditch his heir apparent, Cyprian Brady, and put a female candidate up against her. Having bombed in local polls on the best running mate for the Taoiseach, Cyprian will hardly be in a position to argue.

Of course, it was his hapless brother who topped the same polls, but the truth is there's about as much chance of a resurgent Royston making a political comeback hand in hand with Bertie as Willie O'Dea has of becoming the next James Bond.

It has long been rumoured that Ahern craftily made certain of Royston's departure from his Praetorian Guard through the apparently benign act of making him lord mayor and then putting him on the FF ticket for Europe.

The theory was that if he won he'd be off to Brussels and out of Bertie's hair; if he lost his political career would be over and he'd be out of Bertie's hair. Fanciful as this may be, the truth is he's out of Bertie's hair now, and that's exactly where he will remain.

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Drapier's spies in Drumcondra reckon the most likely running mate for Bertie will be either Mary Fitzpatrick, daughter of outgoing TD Dermot who is retiring, or Deirdre Heney, who has been seen off the premises in Dublin North Central despite being FF's biggest vote-winner in the last local elections.

Heney has been messed around too often by northside FF to expect any favours now. Her one comfort is that this will be Bertie's last election and she'll be around for a long time to come.

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Drapier has little knowledge of Mary Harney's academic background, but has a strong suspicion that maths was a far stronger suit for her than philosophy.

Having twigged that the likely FF loss of 15-20 seats in the general election will put the kibosh on any hope of resuming in government with them, she is again trying to cuddle up to Enda, saying she would welcome coalition with FG.

Clearly she can do her sums. But for the leader of a so-called independent and policy-orientated party to be flirting with the main opposition after nine years in government - surely that demonstrates a need for her to brush up on her philosophy.

All eyes and calculators are focused on Brian Cowen's second Budget next week, the final leg of FF's three-pronged winter-recovery strategy. The first leg, the ardfheis, was overshadowed by the untimely death of Liam Lawlor, while the second, Transport 21, was greeted with derision by the public.

FF are lucky that they've a big man to deliver big time in the shape of Cowen, who is head and shoulders above the rest of the Cabinet in terms of strategic nous. If it was anyone else you suspect the Government might be left, quite literally, without a leg to stand on.

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That phrase oft heard on the playing fields of Dublin, "Watch your house", is a personal motto of Drapier, and I've been keeping a close eye on speculation about the date of the next election. My gut tells me that next summer will be the time due to a combination of factors: interest rates being on the rise, SF becoming more palatable to the electorate here after their accession into government in the North, and the fact that the positive effect of the SSIAs with a fickle public will be shortlived. If I had to choose, the proverbial tenner would go on June 2nd, a week before the World Cup which the Taoiseach would surely want to attend.

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Drapier has a great regard for Ivor Callely, who is certainly not the first minister to suffer from staff-retention problems.

By way of comfort at this difficult time I would remind him of the words of a ministerial aide from a past administration on his premature departure from office: "You've heard of the rat leaving the sinking ship. I'm the sinking ship leaving the rat."