Yeltsin and Kiriyenko

In the topsy-turvy world of Russian politics, defeat can quite easily be portrayed as victory

In the topsy-turvy world of Russian politics, defeat can quite easily be portrayed as victory. President Yeltsin's candidate for the prime ministership, Mr Sergei Kiriyenko, has failed to have his nomination approved by the State Duma but the margin by which he lost was narrower than predicted. This means that Mr Yeltsin and his associates may now have a slight edge in the intense negotiations which began immediately after the Duma vote.

The communists and nationalists, who fiercely oppose Mr Kiriyenko, will argue that the votes of the neo-fascist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his so-called Liberal Democratic Party inflated Mr Kiriyenko's true support in the Duma. Mr Zhirinovsky has consistently been accused by democrats and communists of selling his party's votes to the highest bidder, usually Mr Yeltsin.

In yesterday's line up in the Duma, not only was Mr Kiriyenko opposed by the communist-led opposition but a large number of democratic deputies who favour a free market in Russia pointedly abstained. A campaign to sully Mr Kiriyenko's reputation has also begun. His Jewish origins have not been an advantage in a country with a deep underlying layer of anti-semitism and accusations, not based on any evidence, that he is connected to the Church of Scientology have done nothing to boost his popularity.

On the other hand, the oligarchs who control much of Russia's economy - and almost all of its media - have already begun to court his favours, indicating that they believe his chances of approval remain high. But yesterday's vote is an indication that the Duma will exact the highest price possible from Mr Yeltsin for approving his neophyte premier.

READ MORE

The selection of Mr Kiriyenko, who came to prominence and wealth in Russia's business community, is a sign to the West that there will be no return to the command economy but his enthusiasm for the market may be dampened somewhat if the Duma insists on a say in the appointment of key cabinet members as part of a deal to ensure his nomination.

Should Mr Kiriyenko be rejected three times, Mr Yeltsin has the right to dissolve the Duma and call fresh elections. This threat of dissolution is his major weapon in forcing their acquiescence, but with new elections likely to return a Duma of similar make-up to the current one, his influence in the matter is by no means decisive.

Against this background therefore, the president's decision to fire his entire cabinet and his prime minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, three weeks ago, has served only to destabilise Russia at a time when progress, however slow, was being made. It is common knowledge in Moscow political circles that Mr Chernomyrdin was fired because Mr Yeltsin saw him as a political threat rather than for any of the official reasons given for his dismissal. It would be in Russia's interest if Mr Kiriyenko - should he be eventually approved - does not incur the president's wrath for some considerable time.