Simple arithmetic suggests defeat for President Slobodan Milosevic in Sunday's Yugoslav presidential election. His opponent Mr Vojislav Kostunica is at least ten points ahead in the opinion polls with just four days to go.
Mr Milosevic, however, does not operate within straightforward parameters, such as respect for the will of the people. He and his supporters have rigged elections in the past and there is little reason to suspect that they will not do so again.
In 1996 and 1997, after the local election results had been falsified, massive demonstrations, particularly in Belgrade and the southern city of Nis, appeared to threaten Mr Milosevic's political tenure.
First of all he appeared to make concessions. Then he outsmarted the opposition and proceeded successfully to drive wedges between its component parts, causing almost irreparable divisions.
He retained power despite massive opposition at home and remained at the helm despite the NATO bombing campaign last year. It seems unlikely, therefore, that something so trivial to someone of his mind-set as the votes of the people might be of sufficient importance to force him to step down.
There are enough opportunities to allow him change the mathematics of the situation. Yugoslavia's junior partner, the republic of Montenegro, has defiantly refused to organise the elections on its territory. This stance, initially a courageous one, may now rebound on Montenegro's president Mr Milo Djukanovic as it gives the Milosevic regime an opportunity to falsify results.
Similarly the decision to hold the elections in Kosovo, where most ethnic Albanians are expected to abstain, presents a further opportunity for personation. Reports are also coming through of false polling stations in southern Serbia.
The European Union, in order to encourage voters to register their disapproval of the regime, has offered to end sanctions should Mr Kostunica win. In doing so it may, ironically, be encouraging participation in a rigged election. But its options are extremely limited.
It would certainly not surprise anyone should Mr Milosevic declare victory on Sunday night. What would happen after that is a matter of conjecture. There would certainly be protests. But Serbia's population, disillusioned by Mr Milosevic's previous trickery and its stamina sorely tested by the NATO bombing campaign, might be found lacking in resolve.
A Milosevic "victory" could be followed by an attempt to oust Mr Djukanovic in Montenegro, a move against which the west might be unable to respond to effectively. Only hopelessly committed optimists expect Mr Milosevic to accept defeat in a democratic manner. He is not, after all, a democrat.