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Ukraine war poses profound strategic questions for Ireland and Europe

Inside Politics: Russian invasion is permanently changing face of European security

Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto speaks during a joint press conference with British prime minister Boris Johnson at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, on Wednesday. Photograph: Mauri Ratilainen/ EPA

Jack Horgan-Jones's face
Jack Horgan-Jones
Thu May 12 2022 - 07:53

Good morning,

The war in Ukraine, and its associated impact on Ireland, may have slipped from the top of the news bulletins in recent weeks. However, the profound long-term strategic questions it poses for Europe, and for Ireland, have not gone away. Today's front page carries a report from Derek Scally in Stockholm, where Finland and Sweden signed an agreement with the UK stipulating that it would provide military assistance if either Nordic country were attacked – seen as a placeholder for the article 5 mutual assistance principle that governs Nato membership, providing the currently neutral States with protection as they work their way towards Nato membership. Just three short months after the Russian invasion, it is already permanently changing the face of European security. Should Sweden and Finland apply to join Nato, it would leave just Ireland, Malta, Austria and Cyprus* neutral states within the EU.

Ireland’s version of neutrality has always been an Irish solution to an Irish problem – somewhat shapeless and flexible, more consistently expressed as a value than articulated as a precise doctrine. It has allowed US troop flights through Shannon, and does not exclude significantly increased military spending – remember that at the time neutrality was most important, during the second World War, Irish spending on defence was extremely high by comparative standards. Derek’s companion piece to his dispatch from Sweden, on Austrian neutrality, shows that Ireland is not alone in the EU in having neutrality as a projection of a complex mish-mash of strategy, values, identity and its local, regional and global political role. Neither is it alone in identifying increased European security co-operation as a halfway house that will continue to accommodate neutrality while reacting to the post-invasion reality.

Conversations about the future of Irish neutrality will involve potentially uncomfortable examination of the principles and aims underlying it – even precisely articulating what it hopes to achieve and preserve could be tricky. The Government is not eager to have these discussions – but even as the war temporarily slips off the front pages, developments elsewhere show that its hand may be yet be forced.

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Derek's report from Sweden is here, and his Austrian companion piece is here.

Our lead today details how CAO points are likely to reach last year's record high. Carl O'Brien has a Q&A to go with his story here.

The post-election fallout in Northern Ireland continues to rumble on.

As does the rental crisis, which completes our front page line-up.

Best reads

Jennifer Bray continues her reporting on the National Maternity Hospital (NMH) saga here, accompanied by the latest in her epic series of Q&As on the topic.

Miriam Lord on the same topic, or what brings together Elvis Presley and Stephen Donnelly's human flak jacket.

Naomi O'Leary parses how the Stormont election results will feed into negotiations over the protocol.

Elsewhere, if you plan to travel this summer, this guide to masks on planes is useful.

Playbook

The main draw of the day will be the discussion on the NMH, with arch-critic Dr Peter Boylan in before the health committee, along with other critics of the proposed move. That’s at 4.30pm. Earlier in the day the committee on gender equality meets to consider outputs of the Citizens’ Assembly on the same topic. That’s at 9.30am, as is the surrogacy committee, which is hearing from Children’s Ombudsman Dr Niall Muldoon and Prof Conor O’Mahony, the Government Special Rapporteur on Child Protection. Taoiseach Micheál Martin is up alongside newly-minted Secretary to the Government John Callinan to discuss “matters of public policy” with the Working Group of Committee Cathaoirligh. The housing committee meets with Darragh O’Brien at 1pm.

A round of oral questions opens proceedings at 9am in the Dáil, with Simon Coveney up first, followed by Norma Foley. Leaders' Questions follows at midday from Sinn Féin, Labour, the Regional Group and the Independent Group. The row over the location of the NMH takes up the first Government business slot at 1.44pm, followed by statements on agriculture, fisheries and food security at 4pm. Topical issues and a Private Members' Bill follow in the evening, before the Dáil adjourns for the week.

In the Seanad commencement matters are at 10.30am, and there are statements on governance in local authorities following a recent RTÉ programme.

*This article was amended on May 12th, 2022