Impact of war in Ukraine set to have enduring impact, says Coveney

The world is “effectively” entering “a new Cold War” the effects of which will last for some time to come, Simon Coveney has said.

Addressing the six-month-old Russian invasion of Ukraine and its global consequences at an event on Thursday, the Minister for Foreign Affairs predicted sustained high food prices, and disruption to energy security and supply chains that look set to linger on.

“Geopolitical tensions which will result in prolonged application of significant sanctions that I think will create for a sustained period of time – this is not going to end soon – significant disruption in terms of how supply chains operate,” he said.

He was addressing the annual conference of the Agriculture Science Association (ASA) in Kilkenny which was focused on how innovation could help Irish farmers drive down emissions.

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In a broad, half-hour long address, he also spoke of the need for the new British administration to settle issues around the Northern Ireland protocol.

On food and supply security, he spoke initially on how the conflict in eastern Europe would continue to cause disruption.

“The impact of effectively taking Russia and Ukraine partially out of global markets in terms of supply chains has been enormous,” he said. “Between Russia and Ukraine, they make up 24 per cent of global wheat exports.”

Added to that they account for almost 60 per cent of sunflower seed and 14 per cent of corn exports and so the conflict was driving price disruption.

Mr Coveney’s remarks came as escalating financial pressures mount on ordinary consumers with rising energy costs, inflation and new European interest rate hikes all adding to household spending.

In acknowledgment of his audience, he said rising costs had already had an impact on family farm management in recent months and noted the particular issues of fuel and fertiliser costs.

As the incoming British prime minister Liz Truss settled into office on Thursday, Mr Coveney sent strong signals on the Northern Ireland protocol, an issue that could have significant effects for the agri-food sector.

“If the British government proceed to pass their protocol legislation through Westminster and make it law they will effectively collapse the protocol,” he said.

“And if that happens it creates enormous uncertainty in terms of how an all-Ireland economy functions in that context.”

Noting a potential for ongoing problems with regard to Northern Ireland, Mr Coveney said it was time the UK and Irish governments turned away from the stand-offs and tensions of recent times.

He described his initial conversation with Chris Heaton-Harris, the new British secretary of state for Northern Ireland, as “very positive”.

“He is a strong supporter of Brexit, and all that comes with that, but he is also a pragmatist in my experience.”

However, for many, the issue of the day was how Ireland’s agricultural sector could meet its controversial target of a 25 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions.

Describing the pursuit as a moral obligation, Mr Coveney said “no one gets a free ride” and that the sector’s target was achievable. He referenced the need to invest in technologies to facilitate those efforts, one of the conference’s main areas of focus.

While there was a “lot of criticism in the general media” aimed at farming and its role in climate change, Mr Coveney said he rejected it.

“Farming is in percentage terms a big contributor to emissions in Ireland, that’s true. Because we have a very large sector as part of the Irish economy,” he said.

“But it’s also the solution. If you’re responsible for nearly 40 per cent of the emissions – if you can reduce those emissions significantly, you can also be a big part of the solution.”