United States domestic support for Ukraine is still strong but there has been “some slippage”, especially among Republican supporters, a leading Irish-American congressman has said.
Brendan Boyle, a Democratic Member of the US House of Representatives for Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, told the MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal, on Thursday that the longer the war drags on, the harder it becomes to keep domestic attention on it in the US.
“You still see strong US domestic support for Ukraine but is it as strong as it was 18 months ago? No. There has been some slippage, especially among Republicans, and that is concerning,” he told the gathering, where he was delivering the 23rd annual Hume lecture.
He warned that waning enthusiasm among voters in Europe and the US was an asset for Russian president Vladimir Putin.
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“Putin is counting on that. He is hoping that eventually the transatlantic alliance tires of support for Ukraine,” he said.
Mr Boyle predicted a victory for incumbent US president Joe Biden in next year’s election but said it would be a close race against the presumptive Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump.
“My prediction is Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee and I believe it will be a relatively close presidential election in 2024 with my side prevailing but not by a landslide.” He pointed out that almost all presidential elections were won by comfortable margins in the latter contests of the 20th century but have been much more tightly fought since the year 2000.
“The reality is, structurally, anyone who is the Republican or Democratic presidential nominee is starting off with a floor of about 45 per cent (of voters) and that makes the true swing voters of the United States incredibly valuable individuals,” he said.
Mr Trump, he said, seems to be rightly confident of winning the contest for the Republican ticket but Mr Boyle suggested the businessman-turned-politician, who is facing four separate federal indictments, would polarise voters in a national contest. “He is literally their weakest possible presidential candidate.”
He said Mr Biden, if successful, would likely focus more on foreign policy in his second term, following a pattern seen in the presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama.
