Electoral Commission review: 14 extra TDs and four new constituencies announced

Main points:

• The Electoral Commission has published its highly anticipated constituency review
• The Electoral Commission’s report recommends an increase of 14 TDs to 174 deputies in the next Dáil
• The number of constituencies would increase by four from 39 to 43
• Dublin gains four extra seats, with one new constituency
• If approved by the Dáil, the report would see Wicklow and Wexford reduced to four-seaters and the creation of a three seat Wicklow-Wexford constituency. Here’s Harry McGee on the strange case of Wicklow and Wexford
• It proposes that the constituencies of Tipperary and Laois-Offaly split in two
• See the map of the newly recommended Dáil constituencies and a map of the Dublin constituencies
• What happens next? The review now needs to be approved by the Dáil before coming into force via regulations

Key reads:

• Pat Leahy’s analysis: Eighty-eight is the magic number
• What electoral constituency changes have been announced today? Read Cormac McQuinn’s news wrap
• Which constituencies are changing? Here’s our table
• Inside Politics: ‘Constituency redraws can be career-making or career-breaking’

Our Electoral Commission review liveblog has now ended but you can read back on all today’s news on the changes in the posts below.

Wicklow TD Simon Harris has been responding to changes to the Wicklow constituency, writes Rory Fleming.

“Forget politicians for a moment. I think anytime a constituency is split or there is any change there will be mixed feelings. I’m from Co Wicklow myself and have lived there all my life, so I know that county identity is so important to people.

“From an electoral point of view, I’ve looked at the map and I’ve looked at the numbers and I’m happy enough with the lines on the map ahead of the next election and being able to have that clarity. You work extremely hard and never take your friends’, neighbours’ and constituents’ support for granted, so I’m very much looking forward to that.

“I do think that the recognition by the boundary commission that the population has increased so significantly in Wicklow and therefore that it deserves increased representation in Dáil Éireann is borne out. So even though the names are a bit confusing, between the Wicklow constituency and the Wicklow/ Wexford constituency, there will be four and three seats, so seven seats [in] total instead of previously five. So, that is a recognition that my neighbours, friends and constituents have a constitutional right to increased representation in the Dáil,” he said.

The Minister for Higher Education said Ireland needed to have “an informed debate” about the number of legislators required. “Are we really going to live in a country where we just increase the number of TDs ad nauseam, or are we going to have a conversation? The numbers can just continue to grow and grow so we owe it to the Irish people to have an informed discussion on how many national legislators Ireland needs. If that brings us to the point that requires putting a question to the people, and giving people a say, because this is all about the people and that’s what democracy is, then we should be open to doing that,” he said.

Galway West

5 seats (no change)

There is not change to Galway West’s status as a five-seater. Almost 6,000 people from parts of Co Mayo that had been included in the constituency in the last election are on their way back to their home county. Sinn Féin will be seeking at least two seats with the party likely to give sitting TD Mairéad Farrell a running mate this time around. This could leave left-wing Independent TD Catherine Connolly vulnerable. Fianna Fáil’s Éamon Ó Cuív, Fine Gael Minister of State Hildegarde Naughton and Independent Noel Grealish are the other sitting TDs. While they may suffer to varying degrees from the loss of rural areas of Co Mayo, the three are unlikely to be too perturbed by the outcome of the review.

Meath West

3 seats (no change)

A chunk of Westmeath with a population of almost 9,500 which was included in the Meath West constituency in the last election will be returning to Longford-Westmeath. The constituency will therefore remain a three-seater. The sitting TDs are Johnny Guirke of Sinn Féin, Peadar Tóibín of Aontú and Fine Gael’s Damien English. Guirke and Tóibín will probably fancy their chances while the third seat could well be a scrap between English and Fianna Fáil Senator Shane Cassells.

Dublin North-West

3 seats (no change)

Redrawn maps sees Dublin North-West lose Santry and parts of Finglas – just over 15,000 people – to the new Dublin Fingal West constituency and just under 2,300 more to Dublin West. Some 12,674 from Beaumont – which had been in Dublin Bay North – will make up for some of that population loss. Near to Social Democrats TD Róisín Shortall’s base on the east of the constituency, she will have reason to be pleased by this outcome. Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellis is unassailable in his Finglas heartland and the only question now is whether he can bring in a running mate. Sitting Fianna Fáil TD Paul McAuliffe will be hoping he can’t. The chances of former Fine Gael TD Noel Rock – a victim of the last boundary review – returning to the fray are not increased by the latest redraw. Fine Gael will struggle in the constituency.

Dublin Fingal West

3 seats

Previously part of the five-seat Dublin Fingal constituency the new three-seater includes the coastal towns of Balbriggan, Skerries and Rush as well as rural areas in the west like Naul and Garristown. Santry is added from its current home in Dublin North-West. Dublin Airport is also included, the transport hub and major employer unexpectedly being cut off from Swords, the nearest big town – which will now be in Dublin Fingal East.

Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly – based in the north of the county will likely be the poll topper at the next election though she may well be under pressure to bring in a running mate. Skerries-based Green Party Minister of State Joe O’Brien will miss out on the support of some who voted for him last time around in the south of the county and could have a battle on his hands. Fine Gael Senator Regina Doherty – who moved constituency from Meath East is set to chase a seat in Dublin Fingal West. Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee, on the border of the two new Fingal constituencies, will face a decision on where she will run. Her party colleague, Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien, has his power base in Malahide and will certainly run in Dublin Fingal East. Cllr Robert O’Donoghue has been tipped as the Labour candidate now that incumbent TD Duncan Smith will be running in the other Fingal constituency.

Dublin Fingal East

3 seats

Swords is the main population centre in the new constituency which also includes Malahide, Portmarnock, Donabate and Portrane. Among the sitting TDs are Fianna Fáil Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien and Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell – both drawing support from Malahide and Portmarnock. They are likely to be pleased with the outcome of the constituency review. Duncan Smith of Labour – the other TD in the area – has perhaps the greatest battle to retain his seat in the face of a challenge from an, as yet, unselected Sinn Féin candidate, though incumbency should help him. Sinn Féin has just one councillor in the area, Swords-based Ann Graves. She is surely the front-runner to be selected for Sinn Féin now that sitting TD, Louise O’Reilly, will be running in Dublin Fingal West. Likewise the Greens will be on the hunt for a candidate with sitting TD, Minister of State Joe O’Brien, based in the north of the current Dublin Fingal constituency. Ian Carey, a Swords-based councillor is well-positioned to get the nod. Paul Mulville, a councillor based in the Donabate constituency is the likely candidate for the Social Democrats.

Constituency Profile: Cavan-Monaghan

5 seats (no change)

There’s little change in this five-seat constituency, which sees a small area of Co Meath which had been part of the constituency returning to Meath East. Its five TDs are divided between Sinn Féin (2), Fianna Fáil (2) and Fine Gael, and it’s hard to see any likely changes at the next election. Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy will bring in running mate Pauline Tully but three out of five is unlikely, especially with strong Fianna Fáil runners in Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth, and the Fine Gael big beast Heather Humphreys around. Fine Gael ran Fianna Fáil close for the final seat – but not all that close. Aontú will put in a big push, but a seat seems a long way off.

Dublin Rathdown

Four seats (+1)

Salvation for the ministers. Previously a three-seat constituency where the three incumbents – Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond and Josepha Madigan, and Green Catherine Martin – are all members of the Government parties and all ministers to boot. This was due to be the group of death. It’ll still be tight, but the addition of an extra-seat will ease the pressure. The addition of Foxrock, Leopardstown and Glencullen, all largely affluent suburbs, will be especially welcomed by the Fine Gael ministers. While the constituency is hardly natural territory for Sinn Féin, the party will expect a seat in every constituency, including here. Previously a Fianna Fáil stronghold, those days are long gone.

Limerick City

Four seats (no change)

Little change again here, with the constituency remaining as a four-seater, while three Co Tipperary electoral districts, previously part of the Limerick constituency, return to Tipperary, to the new three seater in the north of the county. The suggested addition or part of Co Clare to make this a five-seater did not materialise in the face of vocal local opposition in the areas concerned. Fianna Fáil vote getter Willie O’Dea will retain his seat if he runs again, and Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan is safe. In a five-seater, he might have been expected to bring in a running mate; that is a bigger ask now. Kieran O’Donnell should hold the Fine Gael seat. That leaves the Green Party’s Brian Leddin holding the third Government seat. Like many of his Green colleagues, he will be under pressure.

Limerick County

There is no change to this three-seat constituency.

Tipperary North

Tipperary is one of the five-seaters that have been split in two, reviving the division of the county in place until the 2016 general election. There are two strong independents here – Michael Lowry and Mattie McGrath. Lowry’s old base is in the North and he will be the dominant figure here, with a mighty scrap between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Labour for the remaining two seats. Fianna Fáil TD Jackie Cahill is based in middle of the county in Holycross – and advantage in the old five-seater, but not in the new three-seater where he is at the very southern edge of the Northern half of the county. With Martin Browne running in the South, Sinn Féin will need a candidate in the North, an area which has had its organisational problems. Former Labour leader Alan Kelly, based at the North end of the county has a fighting chance of retaining his seat – if he stands, that is, and doesn’t go to the European Parliament.

Tipperary South

With Lowry likely to return to the North, many of his votes will be available to other candidates. McGrath is based in the South and will fancy his chances of pulling many of them in, but Fine Gael – which has no seat at all in the county – will hope that some of the Lowry votes will return to their former home in that party. Its candidate, Senator Garrett Ahearne, is well-placed, but it’s a very long time since those Lowry votes were Fine Gael votes. Fianna Fáil needs a candidate that can take votes in the largest town, Clonmel. Browne – a late and perhaps unlikely candidate the last time – will almost certainly hold the Sinn Féin seat, assuming he runs.

Clare

No change in this four-seater.

Cork East

Remains a four-seater but sees significant change with the transfer of Mallow to Cork North-Central and five other electoral districts to Cork North-West. This poses a conundrum especially for Labour TD Sean Sherlock, who is based in the town and is now expected to move to North Central. Fine Gael needs a new candidate with David Stanton retiring but both it and Fianna Fáil, for which James O’Connor won a first-time seat in 2020, should retain seats here. Assuming Sherlock moves, Sinn Féin will push for two; Fianna Fáil is its most likely competitor.

Cork South-West

No change for this three-seater, which is likely to see Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns in a dogfight to keep her seat.

Dublin South-West

Remains a five-seater, with the addition of three areas of Dublin South-Central and the loss of Fettercairn in the west of the constituency to Dunlin Mid-West. The changes won’t massively impact the constituency, which will be a prime target for a Sinn Féin gain at the expense of Paul Murphy of People before Profit or Francis Noel Duffy of the Greens.

Dún Laoghaire

Four seats (no change)

Stays as a four-seater, though it loses a couple of affluent areas in Foxrock, Leopardstown and Glencullen to Dublin Rathdown. The loss will be felt most keenly by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, though like many of his colleagues, Ossian Smyth of the Greens could be the most vulnerable to a Sinn Féin gain here.

Kerry

Remains unchanged as a five-seater

Waterford

Remains unchanged as a four-seater

Sherlock considering constituency change after “seismic shift” to main support base

Cormac McQuinn writes

Labour TD Seán Sherlock is considering changing constituency for the next election after the Electoral Commission’s review of boundaries shifted his main support base in Mallow.

Some 14,400 people in Mallow and its surrounds – which are currently in the Cork East constituency – are set to be added to Cork North-Central.

Mr Sherlock – who was first elected to the Dáil in 2007 for Cork East and has been returned at each election since – is mulling over a constituency move in the wake of the review.

He told The Irish Times: “I’m still assessing what is a seismic shift in the political landscape” adding that “It’s too early to make any detailed comment on the future” and saying:

“I need some time to analyse this.”

However, he said: “Mallow is my home town so one way or another Mallow is where I’m staying.”

Cork North Central is to go from four to five seats.

The sitting TDs there are Thomas Gould of Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil’s Pádraig O’Sullivan, Colm Burke of Fine Gael and Solidarity TD Mick Barry.

Constituency Profile: Dublin West

5 seats (+1)

The constituency of the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has gained a seat and there will be pressure on him to deliver two seats for Fine Gael here (Senator Eimear Currie is likely to be the candidate). An enlarged constituency will favour the other incumbents: Jack Chambers (FF); Paul Donnelly (SF) and Roderic O’Gorman (GP), although it will still be a battle for the Greens. Coming out of Government they will face the same challenges in all constituencies they contest.

A population of about 2,284 has shifted from Dublin North West, mostly from the Ward and Abbotstown. The variance of TD-per-population is well below the norm here, though, at minus 7.17 per cent.

Sinn Féin will seek a second seat and it’s likely that one of the smaller socialist parties (Solidarity’s Ruth Coppinger is a likely candidate) will fancy their chances of taking a seat in a multicultural constituency which has seen big population increases in recent years.

Constituency Profile: Roscommon-Galway

3 seats (no change)

Roscommon has always been a bit of a vagrant. It has been hitched with Longford, Galway and Leitrim in the past. In no case did it prove ideal and in nearly all cases it proved to be controversial and challenging. The difficulty for the county is despite population growth it has a sufficiently high population for only two seats but not quite enough for three.

Since 2016, it has been part of an amalgam constituency Roscommon-Galway taking in large parts of East Galway (a whopping 48 electoral districts). Anomalously, some of North Roscommon around Boyle was hived off to ensure that Sligo-Leitrim remained a four-seater.

Roscommon has seen a decent population growth since 2016. It has allowed the Commission to move 32 electoral divisions back to Galway East (including Dunmore, Caltra, Mountbellew, Glenamaddy, Ballymacward, Kilconnell and Aughrim). However, 16 districts around Ballinasloe have remained in Roscommon-Galway.

Sensibly, the districts in North Roscommon around Boyle have been brought back into the constituency.

So what does that mean? Claire Kerrane of Sinn Féin will be safe. That’s a certainty. Independent Michael Fitzmaurice lives in Glynsk so his home village will now be in Galway East but it’s unlikely he will shift constituency. He should also be safe. Denis Naughten’s retirement will open up an opportunity for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to seek the third seat, but don’t rule out the possibility of another independent candidate emerging. The addition of Boyle should help Strokestown-based Senator Eugene Murphy in his efforts to regain the seat he lost in 2020.

Constituency Profile: Sligo-Leitrim

4 seats (no change)

This constituency was named Sligo-Leitrim but it should have been named Sligo-Leitrim-Roscommon-Donegal, as bits of all four counties were used to make it into a four-seater. In the past the constituency has had to borrow from west Cavan to make up the numbers.

That made it an outlier with seemingly more unhappiness about the 9,300 population from Bundoran and Ballyshannon being included, rather than the 8,500 around Boyle. It was expected that Donegal would see those nine electoral districts in the south of the county returned to it, making it into two three-seaters. But that did not happen. Instead south Donegal remains in this constituency but the north Roscommon districts have shifted to the Roscommon-Galway constituency.

That leaves Fine Gael TD Frankie Feighan in an odd position. He represent Sligo-Leitrim but is based in Boyle, which is no longer in the constituency. Still, he tweeted this morning that he will remain here, despite losing a lot of votes around his home base. Elsewhere the status quo will prevail. The only uncertainties are around Marian Harkin deciding if she will stand again, and Marc MacSharry running as an Independent or returning to the Fianna Fáil fold. Could Sinn Féin take a second? It will be a long shot although incumbent Martin Kenny will poll strongly.

Constituency Profile: Dublin Mid-West

5 seats (+1)

This is a mixed constituency with large rural areas, well-to-do suburbs and some of the biggest local authority estates in the capital. It has moved to the left in recent years with Sinn Féin (two) and People Before Profit (PBP) taking three of the four seats in 2020.

If Sinn Féin wishes to be a Government party with a strong mandate, it needs to be in the hunt for a third seat, after an extra seat has been added. Its lead TD, Eoin Ó Broin, is one of the party’s star performers. The addition of two areas – Clondalkin-Monastery and Tallaght-Fettercairn – will certainly ease that task. However, with a sizeable middle-class vote, if Sinn Féin were to take a third it might be at the expense of Gino Kenny (PBP). Fine Gael should be safe and Fianna Fáil would have ambitions of regaining a seat in a constituency where it once held two.

Constituency Profile: Kildare North

5 seats (+1)

Sarah Burns looks at the runners and riders in this expanded constituency

The constituency will go from four to five seats, gaining parts of Kildare South. The Electoral Commission noted that Kildare North was the second fastest growing constituency nationally according to Census 2022 data, rising by 12.8 per cent since 2016.

Social Democrats TD Catherine Murphy topped the poll in 2020 and despite stepping down as co-leader of the party, she said she plans to stand in the next general election.

Sinn Féin will likely run a second candidate with Réada Cronin, who secured 17 per cent of first preference votes three years ago. Fianna Fáil are expected to do likewise, with Frank O’Rourke narrowly losing out last time. His running mate, James Lawless, secured the third seat in the constituency, followed by Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan. While Durkan has not yet said publicly whether he intends to run in the next general election, the long-standing TD will turn 79 next March.

Constituency Profile: Cork South-Central

5 seats (+1)

Sarah Burns looks at the south side of the River Lee at the other Cork constituency to have benefited from a seat addition.

Cork South-Central has gained an extra seat, making it a five-seater in the next general election. The Electoral Commission said areas which are south of the River Lee, which currently come under Cork North-Central, such as Bishopstown, should be transferred to Cork South-Central.

Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire topped the poll in 2020, while a second candidate could secure an extra seat for the party in a constituency that has consistently returned two Fianna Fáil representatives.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Minister for Finance Michael McGrath would be seen as nailed-on to retain their seats, as well as Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney, the current Minister for Enterprise and Trade.

However, there have been question marks over whether Martin will run again or may instead be eyeing up a job at the EU Commission.

In a recent interview, Coveney said a move to Europe, which had also been speculated, was off the agenda for the moment. The likelihood is that if all four incumbents stand, they will easily retain their seat, with Sinn Féin in pole position to win the final seat.

Constituency Profile: Cork North-Central

5 seats (+1)

Sarah Burns looks at the implications of an extra seat for this large Cork constituency.

Cork North-Central has been allocated an additional seat as the large suburb of Cork city, Ballincollig, with a population of 20,497, moves over from the Cork North-West constituency.

In addition, three electoral divisions in the Mallow area, with a population of 14,408, will transfer over from Cork-East. Parts of Cork North-Central will move to the Cork South-Central constituency and the River Lee is now the border between the two constituencies, with the exception of the electoral division of Ballincollig.

Sinn Féin’s only candidate in Cork North-Central, Thomas Gould, topped the poll in 2020 with 26.67 per cent of first preference votes and the party would be seen as favourite to gain a second come the next general election.

Fianna Fáil’s Padraig O’Sullivan and Fine Gael’s Colm Burke should be relatively confident of retaining their seats while Solidarity’s Mick Barry (who relied on Sinn Féin transfers in 2020) may be nervous, although the addition of a seat might prove to be a boon for his hopes of reelection. Independent councillor Kenneth O’Flynn narrowly lost out to Barry last time, by a margin of less than 900 votes.

Constituency Profile: Meath East

4 seats (+1)

Cormac McQuinn analyses how the extra seat will play in an expanded constituency

The return of almost 15,700 people living in parts of Meath hived off in previous constituency reviews means it gains a TD to become a four-seater. The local Fianna Fáil organisation sought the return of these areas in its submission to the Electoral Commission’s review so Minister of State Thomas Byrne should be reasonably happy.

The expanded voter base will also be seen as giving a boon to Minister for Justice Helen McEntee who previously shared the constituency with Regina Doherty, who is now a senator. Doherty is now to seek election over the border in Dublin Fingal West. If Fine Gael do have two on the ticket Cllr Sharon Tolan is a likely contender given that much of her home-base, Bettystown, is now back in Meath East – albeit part of the town remains in Louth which has caused some dissatisfaction there.

Sinn Féin’s current popularity in the polls means sitting TD Darren O’Rourke is in a strong position to keep his seat. The addition of a TD to Meath East could see him bring in a running mate and he stated today that that is his ambition.

Constituency Profile: Louth

5 seats (no change)

Cormac McQuinn casts his eyes over territory changes in this key constituency

There is no change to the number of seats in Louth – it stays at five – but it loses some 11,500 voters from parts of Co Meath like Julianstown and Laytown that were included in the constituency in the last general election. Bettystown meanwhile has been split between Louth and Meath constituencies.

The arrangement ensures that the southern outskirts of Drogheda which are in Co Meath remain in the one Dáil electoral area in Louth. Given Sinn Féin’s poll numbers in recent times TDs Ruairi Ó Murchú and Imelda Munster remain in a strong position to keep their seats and the party may even be in the hunt for a third. Independent Peter Fitzpatrick should be relatively unaffected by the loss of the voters in eastern Meath as he is based at the opposite end of the county. Drogheda-based sitting TDs Fergus O’Dowd of Fine Gael and Labour’s Ged Nash will lose some voters from the Meath parts of the constituency but will take heart that a chunk of the town’s hinterland will remain in the Louth constituency.

Constituency Profile: Dublin Mid-West

Five seats (+1)

This is a mixed constituency with large rural areas, well-to-do suburbs and some of the biggest local authority estates in the capital. It has moved to the left in recent years with it taking three of the four seats in 2020 (two for Sinn Féin and one for Gino Kenny of People Before Profit).

If Sinn Féin wishes to be a Government party with a strong mandate, it needs to be in the hunt for a third seat, after an extra seat has been added. Its lead TD, Eoin Ó Broin, is one of the party’s star performers. The addition of two areas – Clondalkin-Monastery and Tallaght-Fettercairn – will certainly ease that task. However, with a sizeable middle-class vote, if Sinn Féin were to take a third it might be at the expense of Kenny. Fine Gael should be safe and Fianna Fáil will be ambitious to regain a seat in a constituency where it once held two.

Mayo TD Alan Dillon was quick off the mark welcoming back all the areas of south Mayo which had been lost to Galway West back after a decade or more. There will be no quibbles about the review in Mayo which has also gained a seat.

Constituency profile: Wicklow

Four seats (-1)

This change has not gone down well in Co Wicklow with Sinn Féin TD John Brady describing it as a “hatchet job”. Some 35,000 votes in the rural south of the country, including the districts around Rathdrum, Tinahely and Arklow have migrated into a new constituency Wicklow-Wexford. What remains of Wicklow is the west of the county, including Blessington and Dunlavin, Wicklow town, the sparsely populated mountain regions, as well as the big population centres to the north including Bray and Greystones, the two towns where the five sitting TDs are all based.

I cannot see any of the moving to the new constituency even though Brady took some 4,000 votes from that region in the 2020 election. Of the four others, it looks like Stephen Matthews of the Greens is most vulnerable with Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats), Simon Harris (Fine Gael) and Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil) all looking a tad more solid.

Clear unhappiness among some TDs in Wicklow about the changes in the constituency with Sinn Féin TD John Brady describing it as a “hatchet job”.

Constituency profile: Wexford

Four seats (-1)

Wow. Few saw that coming. People knew there were changes afoot in Wexford but most saw it being split into two three-seat constituencies. What has happened is sub-optimum for the incumbents as, like Wicklow, all five TDs live in the rump of the constituency that has been left.

The truncated constituency runs from Enniscorthy South and, as of now, it’s hard to see any of the five incumbents fancying their chances in the new amalgam between Wexford and Wicklow. Fianna Fáil’s James Browne and Labour’s Brendan Howlin (if he stands) will stay put. So will Verona Murphy who is based in the south of the county. Depending on how Sinn Féin approach candidate selection, Johnny Mythen may move and Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe will certainly consider it but his political inclination will be to stay put. However, if somebody does not shift, there will have to be a loser.

Cork North-West

3 seats (no change)

Cormac McQuinn’s snap analysis of the review of this rural Co Cork constituency

The number of seats in Cork North-West remains at three. The big change is the move of more than 20,000 people in Ballincollig to the Cork North-Central constituency. Cork North-West gains some territory from Cork East – including the town of Buttevant – and a small part of Cork North-Central. When the Cork city suburb of Ballincollig first moved to Cork North-West almost 20 years ago, then Fianna Fáil TD Batt O’Keeffe changed constituency to stay with his base and managed to retain a seat.

There was already something of an opening up of the constituency with former Fine Gael minister Michael Creed’s announcement that he will not contest the next election. It is not yet known who will run for Fine Gael or Sinn Féin for that matter. The two sitting TDs are Michael Moynihan and Aindrias Moynihan of Fianna Fáil. Ballincollig would not be seen as a heartland for either. Fianna Fáil will be studying the new map as it seeks to assess the impact of the loss of such a large population area on their incumbent TDs’ chances.

Constituency profile: Longford-Westmeath

Five seats (+1)

Cormac McQuinn’s assessment of this five-seat constituency

The return of almost 9,500 Westmeath people from the Meath West constituency (mostly from Co Westmeath, though a few electoral districts from Meath are included) means an extra seat can be added and all of Longford and Westmeath will be contained in the same constituency. With twice the population of Longford the change will likely benefit candidates from Westmeath. Currently just one sitting TD – Fianna Fáil’s Joe Flaherty – is from Longford. His party colleague Robert Troy is Westmeath-based.

A good vote strategy could perhaps see Longford-based Fine Gael Senator Micheál Carrigy returned along with party colleague Minister of State Peter Burke but it would be a tough ask. Sinn Féin’s Sorca Clarke will almost certainly have a running mate and the party will very much be on the hunt for two seats. But is there also an opportunity for former Independent TD Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran? He lost his seat in 2020 but has told local media outlets that he intends to run again.

Constituency profile: Mayo

Five Seats (+1)

This was one of the surprises of the review. Electoral districts around Ballinrobe including Shrule, Cong and the Neale in the south of the county had previously been transferred to Galway West as part of earlier reviews. The reversion of these territories to Mayo will be welcomed by the likes of Michael Ring, who has ran a long-running campaign to have the constituency align with the county boundaries.

So now Mayo has returned to a five-seater, which spells good news for the four incumbents, should they run. Along with Westport-based Ring, the other Fine Gael TD is Alan Dillon from Ballintubber. Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary is based in Ballina while Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh lives in Belmullet.

So how will the extra seat come into play? It could provide a way back for Senator Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil, who lost out to Conway-Walsh in 2020. However, she has already committed to running for Europe so there is a question mark as to her returning to contest a general election. Chambers has previously been talked about as a possible leadership contender in Fianna Fáil but that would necessitate a return to the Dáil for her to be included in any conversation. Sinn Féin could certainly have a shot at a second seat, though, based on current numbers.

The no-change constituencies

Sarah Burns looks thorough some of the constituencies where the seat count remained unchanged

Dublin Bay North (five seats)

The constituency will remain a five-seater and will gain the Balgriffin electoral division, with a population of 5,544, from Dublin Fingal and transfer out of parts of Beaumont into Dublin North-West.

Kildare South (four seats)

Kildare South remains a four-seater with a number of transfers, including Carragh, Donore and Ladytown to Kildare North, Portarlington-South, Ballybrittas, Kilmullen and Jamestown to the new Laois constituency and Portarlington-North to the new Offaly constituency.

Dublin Central (four seats)

The constituency, which is currently represented by Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, the Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan and the Social Democrats’ Garry Gannon, remains a four seater with no transfers in or out despite experiencing a population growth of 11.9 per cent. There will be pressure on McDonald to deliver a second seat for Sinn Féin, which looks a possibility despite her task being made more difficult by the decision of the Commission to stay with the status quo ante.

Dublin South-Central (four seats)

Dublin South-Central, currently the most left-wing constituency in the country with no Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael candidates elected in 2020, will remain a four-seater.

However, the Electoral Commission has recommended the transfer of part of the Kimmage electoral division, currently in the Dublin Bay South constituency and with a population of 3,738, to Dublin South-Central.

Some of the electoral divisions west of the constituency will move to Dublin Southwest and Dublin Mid-West.

Sinn Féin’s Aengus Ó Snodaigh secured 39.3 per cent of first preference votes in the last general election and the numbers suggest the party will win a second seat easily in the next election. Bríd Smith is retiring but Patrick Costello (GP) and Joan Collins (Ind) will still be under threat. Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour and the Social Democrats are all expected to field strong candidates in the hope of winning a seat here.

Carlow-Kilkenny (five seats)

Despite the belief locally that it would be divided into two three-seaters, Carlow-Kilkenny remains a five-seater. However, 13 electoral divisions, with a population of 6,431 from the western part of Co Kilkenny, including Urlingford and Tullaroan, will be transferred to the newly formed Tipperary North constituency.

While the Commission noted that submissions had called for the county of Carlow to form the basis of a new constituency with transfers from other counties, it decided the county’s population of 61,968 was insufficient to support a stand-alone constituency.

As it stands, four of the five TDs elected three years ago are originally from Co Kilkenny, with Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor the exception.

Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion, the party’s only candidate in the constituency, topped the poll in 2020 and it is expected they will run two candidates next time round.

Constituency profile: Wicklow-Wexford

Three Seats (new)

This will prove to be the most controversial decision of the Electoral Commission but is one that was widely predicted. The new constituency takes in more population from Wexford (some 50,000 people) with 35,000 coming from Wicklow. It is predominantly rural but it includes towns such as Gorey, Courtown, Kilmuckridge, Bunclody, Arklow, Tinahely and Rathdrum.

The extraordinary thing about it is that there is not a single TD living in the constituency at present, with Senator Malcolm Byrne the only Oireachtas member based there. Another Fianna Fáil senator Pat Casey lives in Glendalough but he would have relied on this area of Wicklow for votes, so he has a big decision to make. It’s unlikely that any of the five sitting TDs in Wicklow will move south as they each have their strongest support bases in the north of the county.

You would expect Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin to be in prime position to take seats. Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe is based in Enniscorthy as is Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen. It’s hard to see them being inclined to move north. On a county-by-county basis, it’s more likely that two of the TDs will be Wexford-based.

Constituency profile: Galway East

Four seats (+1)

A decision by a previous review to reduce Galway East to three seats and transfer a massive 48 electoral areas to the new constituency of Galway-Roscommon caused consternation. This Commission has repaired its hand somewhat. Some 32 electoral divisions return to Galway East, but 16 remain with Roscommon, including the large town of Ballinasloe. There were transfers expected from east of Galway City but they did not materialise. The increase in one seat is good news for the incumbents: Ciaran Cannon (FG); Anne Rabbitte (FF) and Seán Canney (Ind). Louis O’Hara of Sinn Féin came within a hair’s breadth of winning a seat last time around and should be a racing certainty in the next general election. There could be room for a new candidate based in the north-eastern part of the constituency.

Pat Leahy’s analysis: Eighty-eight is the magic number

Eighty-eight. That’s the new magic number. The next Dáil will increase from 160 TDs to 174; half plus one is 88. So that’s the number of seats that a party – or more realistically, a Coalition of parties – must assemble if they are to form a Government.

The first rule of politics, the former British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne was fond of saying, is that you have to have to be able to count. Well, that’s the number that matters now.

Over the coming days and weeks, TDs, their parties and potential candidates will pore over the boundary changes and constituency redraws to judge where the votes are, where they’re going and who it suits. Plenty of time for that. Their deliberations will impact directly on the candidate strategy adopted.

The headline findings are plentiful: more TDs, elected in more constituencies (up from 39 to 43), more of which – controversially – will return three TDs. The Commission acknowledged this morning that the general desire among submissions to it was for more 5 seat constituencies and fewer three seaters. Three seaters are generally reckoned to be unfriendly to smaller parties, requiring as they do a larger share of the vote to reach the quota, and while individual strong candidates (most notably among independents) might seem to contradict this, the rule generally holds. So more three seaters is bad news in many places for the Greens, for Labour, for the Social Democrats.

Commission official Tim Carey told this morning’s media briefing that the increase in three-seaters was “inevitable ... but not as many as there could have been”. Officials said afterwards that going to 178 seats would have meant an additional eight three-seaters, with the total number of constituencies rising to 51. That would have been a complete redraw of the electoral map of the country.

Instead, the commission has sought to maintain the existing shape of the constituency map insofar as it can. There are four more constituencies, formed by the division of existing five-seaters and the creation of a new inter-county constituency of Wexford-Wicklow, comprising the northern end of Wexford and the southern part of Wicklow.

There are two fewer four-seaters (15, down from 17) and two more five seaters, with additional seats for Mayo and Dublin Mid-West, Cork North Central and South Central, Dublin West, Longford-Westmeath and Kildare. The old five-seaters of Fingal, Tipperary, Laois-Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow are gone, down a seat or divided, but a few big rural constituencies remain – Donegal, Kerry, Cavan-Monaghan and the urban-rural mix of Galway West.

Swings and roundabouts, so. The changes are probably as limited as they could have been – a fact facilitated by the commission’s decision to increase the permissible variance from the national average. Each TD represents just under 30,000 people – but some represent more and some less, depending on the constituency. The variance from this number, up or down, has increased from 5 per cent in the last revisions to 8 per cent today. If this is less satisfactory from a democratic or equality perspective, it is the price of a much more disruptive redraw of the boundaries.

Which constituencies are changing?

Here’s a table by Paul Scott

What is happening in Dublin?

Here’s a map of the constituency changes.

What has been announced today?

Cormac McQuinn has filed a news wrap following the Electoral Commission’s briefing.

There are set to be 14 more TDs in the Dáil following the Electoral Commission’s highly anticipated constituency review with more than half of the new deputies to represent Dublin and nearby commuter counties.

The current Dublin Fingal five-seat constituency is to become two new three seaters Dublin Fingal East and Dublin Fingal West.

Dublin West will go from four seats to five while the same will happen in Dublin Mid-West.

Dublin Rathdown is also set to gain a seat with the help of some territory from the adjoining Dún Laoghaire constituency.

There will be a major shake-up in the southeast with five-seaters Wicklow and Wexford being reduced to four seats and a new three, cross border Wicklow-Wexford three seat constituency being created in the middle.

Meath East is to gain a seat to become a four-seater with the return of parts of the county that were in the Louth and Cavan-Monaghan constituencies.

Parts of the immediate outskirts of Drogheda that are in Co Meath will remain in the Louth constituency which stays at five seats.

Kildare-North will gain a seat to become a five-seater and the current five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency is to be split along county lines to make two new three seaters.

Longford-Westmeath is to go from a four-seat constituency to a five seater with some territory from Meath West which stays at three seats.

There are to be two more seats for Cork with both city constituencies becoming five seaters, one additional TD in Galway East and another new seat in Mayo.

Similarly there will be an extra seat in Tipperary with the current five-seater split into two three-seaters.

The 14 new TDs will bring Dáil numbers to 174 and increase the number of constituencies increases from 39 to 43.

The review was carried out to reflect Ireland’s growing population which stood at more than 5.1 million in Census 2022.

The new number will mean that there will be one TD for every 29,593 people on average.

Some 17 constituencies will have more than 30,000 TDs per person – the higher end of the range set out in the Constitution.

This is the same number of constituencies that go above 30,000 as the last review in 2017.

The Commission said that recommending a higher number of TDs would have resulted in significant numbers of county boundary breaches and high levels of discontinuity.

Roscommon-Galway changes again but not so much this time

Few counties have experienced constituency chopping and changing as much as Roscommon over the past 40 years. It has been attached to Longford (in Leinster!); to Galway and to Leitrim. The county’s population has increased but not quite enough to justify it being a three-seater. In 2016, it was given swatches of Galway East and North East, while ceding the area around Boyle in Co Roscommon to Sligo-Leitrim.

At least this time around there is a bit more consistency. It has been given back the electoral areas of North Roscommon with 32 of the 48 electoral areas in Galway going back to Galway East. Sixteen electoral areas in Galway remain in the constituency but it will generate less controversy this time.

The strange case of the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency

The Wicklow-Wexford three-seat constituency is unique in that at present not a single TD lives in the constituency.

All of the five TDs in Wicklow live in the north of the county, clustered around Bray and Greystones. It is the same in Wexford where all five live in the southern side of the county from Enniscorthy south.

The constituency comprises rural south Wicklow including Rathdrum, Carnew and the port town of Arklow. The areas of north Wexford around Gorey and Court-town also move in.

The sole Oireachtas representative in that part of Wexford is Senator Malcolm Byrne while the Fianna Fáil senator Pat Casey would be close enough to the new constituency in his Glendalough base.

Reaction from the TDs has been decidedly muted so far on social media. No major reaction on Twitter save for a few comments on territory being gained or ceded, as we see in this case from Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill.

The 43 constituencies proposed in the 2023 review

• Carlow-Kilkenny: 5
• Cavan-Monaghan: 5
• Clare: 4
• Cork East: 4
• Cork North-Central: 5 (+1)
• Cork North-West: 3
• Cork South-Central: 5 (+1)
• Cork South-West: 3
• Donegal: 5
• Dublin Bay North: 5
• Dublin Bay South: 4
• Dublin Central: 4
• Dublin Fingal East: 3 (new)
• Dublin Fingal West: 3 (new)
• Dublin Mid-West: 5 (+1)
• Dublin North-West: 3
• Dublin Rathdown: 4 (+1)
• Dublin South-Central: 4
• Dublin South-West: 5
• Dublin West: 5 (+1)
• Dún Laoghaire: 4
• Galway East: 4 (+1)
• Galway West: 5
• Kerry: 5
• Kildare North: 5 (+1)
• Kildare South: 4
• Laois: 3 (new)
• Limerick City: 4
• Limerick County: 3
• Longford-Westmeath: 5 (+1)
• Louth: 5
• Mayo: 5 (+1)
• Meath East: 4 (+1)
• Meath West: 3
• Offaly: 3 (New)
• Roscommon-Galway: 3
• Sligo-Leitrim: 4
• Tipperary North: 3 (New)
• Tipperary South: 3 (New)
• Waterford: 4
• Wexford: 4 (-1)
• Wicklow: 4 (-1)
• Wicklow-Wexford: 3 (New)

Constituency review map

Below is a map of the recommended Dáil constituencies released by the Electoral Commission

Commission defends review on grounds of trying not to breach county boundaries

The commission has set out its reasoning for going with such a conservative review.

It has defended the lower number on a number of grounds, mainly because a higher number would have resulted in more breaches of country boundaries.

It states: “Initially, the commission believed that choosing a number at the higher end of the range could provide it with more options and greater flexibility. The commission was aware, through both submissions received and general public and media commentary, that a number at the higher end of the 171-181 range was perceived as a means of ‘future-proofing’, so that changes at the next review might be minimised. However, future-proofing is not one of the terms of reference.

“During the course of its deliberations the commission concluded that a number at the higher end of the available range would not result in more coherent constituencies. With a higher number of seats the Commission would not have been able to recommend the removal of a number of existing county boundary breaches.”

It continues: “It would also have had to recommend a number of new breaches of county boundaries. There would have been very low levels of continuity with changes having to be recommended in almost every constituency, if not every constituency. There would also have been a marked reduction in the number of five-seat constituencies and an increase in the number of three-seat constituencies

Also, like previous commissions it has gone with an even number rather than an odd number.

This is its reasoning: “One of the first considerations for the Commission was whether the number would be an even number or odd number. The decision of the Commission to recommend an even number is consistent with previous constituency reviews, all of which have recommended even numbers.

“Taking into account the fact that one of the members will be appointed as Ceann Comhairle of the Dáil with a casting vote, an uneven number of elected members could result in many tied votes in the Dáil.”

Controversial decisions

The commission has made the most conservative choice possible. It could have gone up to 181 TDs but opted for a number right at the bottom of the scale. Under this review there will be one TD for every 29,593 people, just below the maximum limit of one per 30,000 provided in the Constitution.

It means that there will need to be an increase in the next review in five years as it is certain that the population will continue to increase.

So in summary, there are 174 TDs and the final Census figures shows a population of 5,149,139. Each TD would therefore represent an average of 29,593 people, down from the current 32,182.

Also, there is a perennial debate on which number of seats each constituency has. The number of three-seat constituencies has actually increased, to 13 from nine. The number of four-seat constituencies has fallen to 15 from 17 and the number of five-seat constituencies has increased from 13 to 15.

That won’t be too popular with the smaller parties that favour larger constituencies which they argue give a better democratic representation.

There does seem to be more respect for county boundaries. Two breaches have been repaired and the variance of representation for constituencies is 16 per cent (in other words a 16 per cent difference between the constituency with the least population per TD and the one with the most population per TD). That respects county boundaries.

Dramatic changes in Tipperary, Wicklow, Galway, Wicklow and Laois

There are dramatic changes elsewhere also.

Besides the creation of the two Tipperary constituencies, there are big changes in Wexford and Wicklow.

Wexford is reduced to a four-seater.

Wicklow is also reduced to a four-seater.

In between, there is a new three-seat Wicklow-Wexford constituency, taking territory from the south and north of the respective counties.

Galway East gains an extra seat taking territory from the Roscommon-Galway constituency. It now has four.

Mayo (surprisingly) also gains a seat taking south Mayo electoral districts around Ballinrobe that had been ceded to Galway West last time around. Galway West remains a five-seater.

Roscommon-Galway is taking territory from Sligo-Leitrim to remain a three-seater.

Elsewhere Laois-Offaly is to become two constituencies, each with three seats as was the situation until 2016.

Meath East is also gaining a seat and will become a four-seat constituency.

Dublin changes

Big changes afoot all over the place. Dublin Fingal gains one seat and becomes two three-seat constituencies of Dublin Fingal East and Dublin Fingal West.

Dublin Mid West gains one seat to become a five seater.

Dublin West also becomes a five-seat constituency.

Dublin Rathdown becomes a four seater, up from three.

That is four extra seats for the capital.

You can see Sinn Féin gains in most of those changes, on the lie of the political land as it is now.

Other big changes

Cork North Central becomes a five-seat constituency.

Cork South Central also becomes a five-seat constituency.

So the first new constituencies are in Tipperary, Tipperary North and Tipperary South, each with three seats.

That is an increase of one seat from the old Tipperary constituency.

It means the five-seater Carlow-Kilkenny has ceded territory to the new constituencies.

Increase in seats

So the review has been published.

It proposes that there will be 174 seats in the next Dáil.

It proposes an additional 14 seats from the last Dáil which had 160.

It also calls for the number of constituencies to increase from 39 to 43, an increase of four.

Under the plan the number of three-seat constituencies would increase to 13 from nine, the number of four-seat constituencies would fall to 15 from 17 and the number of five-seat constituencies would rise to 15 from 13.

Good morning, I’m Harry McGee and I will be leading our live coverage of the Electoral Commission’s review of the constituency boundaries.

It is the biggest change to constituencies in a generation, due to a surge in the population over the past five years.

The Commission has the power to add between 10 and 21 seats to the Dáil, brining the total number of TDs from 160, to between 170 and 181. The consensus is it will opt for a number higher in the range.

We also expect to see at least one new constituency being established in Dublin, and one or two in the rest of the State. We will find out in a few minutes.