Constitutional change may be needed to stop TD numbers growing indefinitely, says Ahern

Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern has suggested the Constitution may have to be changed in relation to the number of TDs per capita as it won’t be feasible to keep adding to the number of Dáil seats every time the population grows.

Mr Ahern said that he had not analysed the figures closely enough to be able to say what the optimum number of people per TD is, but the current provision under Article 16 of the Constitution that there should be a TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 people no longer looks feasible.

“Ultimately, the Constitution will have to be looked at because you can’t go adding another ten Dáil seats every five years or 25 years – you can’t continue on like that because, based on the projected population growth, we’d be growing 10-15 seats or more every five years – that’s not necessary.”

Mr Ahern said that while he didn’t believe in the British first past the post system where the winner takes all, it was worth noting that in the UK, they had a greater ratio when it came to public representation with some 650 MPs serving a population of 67 million.

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Mr Ahern said that he believed there was merit in the defeated 1968 referendum proposal by then Taoiseach, Jack Lynch to introduce single seat constituencies as he believed single seat constituencies would allow TDs to strike a good balance between constituency work and Dáil representation.

“I think six and seven seat constituencies are not a good idea – they are far too big, I’ve represented threes (seaters), fours and fives in my time. I got three out of five on two occasions but any bigger than that in my view is not representative,” he said.

“I’m on the Jack Lynch line – I think if you wanted to really do something, you go back to ones or twos . ... you would have far smaller constituencies. TDs would have plenty of time to do to constituency work and plenty of time to do Dáil work but six doesn’t make any sense to me.”

Asked if he would have concerns that smaller one- and two-seat constituencies would result in smaller political parties being squeezed out by the larger political entities, Mr Ahern said he didn’t think such a move would lead to difficulties for smaller parties and independents.

“I don’t get that argument. If you see some of the independents, they head the poll, they get huge votes. In the old days, when the two attempts were made by Fianna Fáil to introduce one-seaters, that was when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would have got all the seats but that doesn’t apply any more

“Independents get huge votes and based on the last election, Sinn Féin would have cleaned up because they headed the poll everywhere.

Asked if he thought any of the recent Electoral Commission proposals looked skewed, Mr Ahern said: “Well, I can tell you, the greatest skewed one that ever was when they revised mine and me being a Northsider, they gave me half my constituency on the southside – there’s none as bad as that!”

Mr Ahern said he believed Dáil Éireann should now go ahead and pass the Electoral Commission proposals as has happened with every proposal from the Electoral Commission since it was set up by Jack Lynch in 1977 following the so-called “Tullymander” by 1973 the Fine Gael-Labour coalition.

Speaking Fermoy in North Cork where he delivered the oration at the General Liam Lynch Commemoration to mark the 100th anniversary of the death of the Anti-Treaty IRA leader, Mr Ahern said he thought it was likely the current coalition Government would go to the country in late 2024.

“It’s from the date of the election ... It’s not the date that the new Dáil forms – so therefore it’s a no-brainer, it would have to be a 2024 election because you wouldn’t want to go into 2025 because you’re only going five or six weeks into 2025. Maybe Christmas Eve or a good day like that,” he quipped.