PoliticsAnalysis

King’s speech is evidence of how far Northern Ireland has fallen down UK’s to-do list

Window for DUP to re-enter North’s power-sharing arrangement is rapidly closing

King Charles III and Queen Camilla attend the state opening of Parliament at the Houses of Parliament in London on Tuesday. Photograph: Arthur Edwards - WPA Pool/Getty Images
King Charles III and Queen Camilla attend the state opening of Parliament at the Houses of Parliament in London on Tuesday. Photograph: Arthur Edwards - WPA Pool/Getty Images
Freya McClements's picture
Freya McClements
Wed Nov 08 2023 - 10:22

In the entire speech, it came to 17 words.

As King Charles set out his government’s legislative programme at the state opening of Parliament in London on Tuesday, the only nod towards the political impasse in Northern Ireland was his affirmation that “my government will promote the integrity of the Union and strengthen the social fabric of the UK”.

Never mind that one would hardly expect him to say anything else; this stating of the obvious will be scant reassurance for unionists, and if anything is further evidence of just how far the ongoing crisis at Stormont has slipped down the UK government’s to-do list.

It certainly was not the fig-leaf of legislation reaffirming Northern Ireland’s place in the union which, so the narrative goes, should have been the next step in the choreography that would, coupled with a financial package, bring the DUP back in.

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DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson had made clear in advance that the king’s speech was not going to deliver the long-anticipated breakthrough, telling BBC Radio Ulster on Monday that talks with the UK government were continuing.

“We’re not there yet,” he said. “There are still gaps to be closed but we are working on these.”

This was reiterated on Tuesday in a statement responding to the speech, in which he said discussions would continue but it was important the UK government’s stated commitment to the union was “demonstrated with concrete actions.”

[ Conservatives draw election battle lines in king’s speech with focus on crime ]

Conversations are continuing; the problem for the DUP is that, if it is to re-enter the power-sharing institutions, the window in which to do so is rapidly closing.

For Downing Street, the called-for “concrete action” was the Windsor Framework, agreed between the UK and the EU in response to unionist concerns over its predecessor, the Northern Ireland protocol.

It has made clear those negotiations will not be reopened – and nor indeed would the EU reopen them – and it is equally clear that, from its point of view, the conversation will not continue indefinitely.

London has other priorities, not least the looming prospect of a general election; in Dublin, the frustration was evident in Tánaiste Micheál Martin’s comments on Sunday, when he told RTÉ the momentum towards restoring power-sharing appears to have “ebbed” and negotiations between the DUP and the UK government had “more or less come to a conclusion”.

Dublin has made clear that, in the absence of a restored Stormont, there will have to be “alternative arrangements” for the North within the scope of the role laid out in the Belfast Agreement. Sinn Féin has called for joint authority, the SDLP for “shared stewardship.”

[ Donaldson rejects suggestion that talks to restore Stormont have ended without breakthrough ]

After more than 18 months of political stasis, patience is almost exhausted; if Stormont is not restored soon, the consequence for the people of Northern Ireland could be a year or more of stalemate, with the institutions in limbo until the far side of the UK general election.

Throw into the mix the latest LucidTalk polling on the state of the Northern parties, in Monday’s Belfast Telegraph, which was encouraging reading for the DUP.

With party support two points up to 28 per cent of the first preference vote, among DUP voters almost three-quarters backed its Stormont boycott, saying they did not want a return to the institutions until the Windsor Framework was removed.

A cautious politician by nature, will Donaldson want to risk alienating some of that 72 per cent ahead of an election? Or, given the challenges the DUP will face in East Belfast and Lagan Valley, would staying out be the greater risk?

That the DUP has not paid a price, electoral or otherwise, for stalling the institutions makes it all too easy to let the limbo continue.

A return to Stormont was always going to require courage from Donaldson. Now it will require even more.