The surprise decision by Charles Michel to step down early as European Council president has set tongues wagging across Europe, and has led to speculation that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Micheál Martin are in the running for the top job.
Last weekend, Mr Michel announced that he will run as a candidate in the European Parliament elections in June and if he succeeds – as he is widely expected to – he would take up his seat in July.
The job as head of the European Council is an important one: Mr Michel is the convener of the EU’s most powerful body and his role involves mediating between member states and brokering agreements on big global issues. He also represents the bloc on the international stage.
EU leaders want to agree a successor by the summer. In this context, the appearance of Varadkar and Martin’s names as potential candidates was not surprising, especially as both have served as taoiseach.
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The Taoiseach summarily dismissed speculation that his name could be put forward by saying: ‘I don’t think I’d be even on the shortlist, even if I wanted to be’
But the departure of either party leader from domestic politics would be a hugely significant development that would trigger a potentially divisive leadership campaign in either party.
It didn’t take either long to talk down such a prospect.
The Taoiseach summarily dismissed speculation that his name could be put forward by saying: “I don’t think I’d be even on the shortlist, even if I wanted to be.” The Tánaiste said: “I’ve made it very clear my ambition and commitment is to lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election.”
The comments seemed to put the matter to bed – but sources close to both leaders do not believe the situation to be as black and white.
One well-placed source, speaking to The Irish Times, said that if the role was a real possibility for either man, they would genuinely “have to consider” it.
While neither has given it any significant degree of thought yet, this could change if they were actually approached in any meaningful way, the source said. As with all top European jobs, there are a number of moving parts that all need to fall into place before the final picture emerges.
Firstly, Irish Government sources believe that the European Commission presidency will remain with the European People’s Party, and that Ursula von der Leyen will seek a second term at the helm, which could tilt the European Council job in favour of a socialist or liberal candidate.
There is a growing sense within the Coalition that the route to the European Council presidency is clearer for Micheál Martin than it is for Leo Varadkar.
Among Mr Martin’s liberal Renew group in Europe, his potential rivals could include Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, and Belgium’s prime minister Alexander De Croo, who did not rule himself out when recently asked about the role.
There may also be a push for a candidate from southern or eastern Europe, which could further dent Mr Martin’s chances. The convoluted processes and behind-the-scenes wheeling and dealing make this path to Europe a difficult one to chart. Although the Fianna Fáil leader is increasingly viewed in Government as the Irish candidate with the clearest run, it still appears, for now, an unlikely prospect.
There is one certainty in the race for the EU top jobs, however, and that will be the appointment of a European commissioner for the 2024-29 term, after the summer elections.
One name believed to be in strong contention for the EU commissioner role is Minister for Finance Michael McGrath, who has been coy when asked if he would take the job if it offered it
A few names have been bandied about on the international stage, including Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe and current EU Commissioner for Financial Services Mairead McGuinness, who has publicly expressed her willingness to stay on in Brussels for a second term.
The Republic’s next European commissioner will be a Fianna Fáil nominee when the Government makes its selection this year, according to an unwritten agreement reached between the Coalition parties in 2020 when they formed the Government.
One name believed to be in strong contention for the commissioner role is Minister for Finance Michael McGrath, who has been coy when asked if he would take the job if it offered it. In an interview with The Irish Times after Christmas, Mr McGrath said: “Who knows what the future holds?”
Any such move could take him off the pitch as a potential future Fianna Fáil leader, and his is a name that often comes up in such conversations.
The speculation about the myriad Irish candidates vying for top EU and international jobs doesn’t end there either.
Late last year, Bloomberg reported that Paschal Donohoe’s name was being mentioned as a successor to IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, should she not continue into a second term in the role. Sources close to Leo Varadkar believe the Taoiseach is very cool on this prospect, and believe that the wider Fine Gael family thinks Donohoe shouldn’t entertain any such move especially given his stature in the party and the proximity to a general election.
As is the case for Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin, should either of these job offers come the way of Michael McGrath or Paschal Donohoe, they would have to seriously consider them, and would likely find it hard to wrestle themselves away from a huge opportunity abroad when the tide looks to be turning for Sinn Féin at home.
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