Ministers have been privately warned that an extra 120,000 homes will likely be needed by 2030, as the Government finalises a fresh plan which could see eight to ten new large housing developments in Dublin and surrounding counties.
The Cabinet Committee on Housing met on Monday, where Ministers were given projections of how anticipated population growth could impact on housing targets, which are due to be revised upwards amid criticism from the Opposition that they are not high enough to meet existing demand.
It is understood Ministers were told at the meeting that previous estimates which showed the population reaching 5.7 million people by 2040 may now materialise 10 years sooner than expected.
They were told the ESRI was now projecting in excess of 300,000 more people in 2030 than previously anticipated, and that this could equate to a requirement for about 120,000 new homes to 2030 alone.
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Sources say they were also informed that when various factors were put together, including housing demand and migration, it was likely revised demand would be about 50,000 new homes every year until at least 2030.
Under current Housing for All targets, the government would build 33,000 houses a year up to 2030.
In the coming weeks, the Government will consider a new plan which could deliver an extra 80,000 new homes in Dublin and surrounding counties, it is understood.
A new draft of the National Planning Framework will detail an accelerated plan for the area which would see eight-10 new large developments mapped out which would be matched with places where public transport is planned. These developments could deliver 8,000-10,000 new homes apiece, and they could potentially be ready by the early 2030s.
Sources say Ministers were given examples of the type of areas that could be targeted, which include lands adjoining Drogheda and the railway line south, or Dart+ coastal north; the Metrolink line to Swords; the railway line to Dunboyne or Dart+ west; the railway line to Maynooth and west or Dart+ west; the railway line to Hazelhatch or Dart+ southwest; and the city edge lands on the Luas red line.
The meeting heard delivery at scale and at an accelerated pace should happen in at least eight-10 such areas in the Dublin Metropolitan Region and the areas adjoining it.
Meanwhile, the meeting was also told of planned changes to the tenant in situ scheme which was introduced after the eviction ban was lifted last spring, allowing the State to step in and buy these properties for those at risk of homelessness but who were not eligible for social welfare supports.
Applicant tenant households had to have net annual income of below €66,000 per annum for Dublin and €59,000 for everywhere else in the country.
Ministers were told that to date, 100 homes have had bids accepted worth more than €25 million across 28 local authorities. The average monthly rent paid by tenants is about €900. Tenants who are part of the scheme paid the Housing Agency the same rent as they paid their private landlords before the sale, and were told they would eventually be moved to a cost rental model. However, a source said Ministers were told the move to cost rental would mean higher rents for the majority of tenants.
The Housing Agency has now reached its budget for the scheme and told Government €5 million would be needed every month to continue it. Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien is believed to now favour a revised tenant in situ scheme which would be led by approved housing bodies.
A crucial change, however, would be that the subsidy for each tenant arrangement would be tailored so that the person’s new rent under the cost rental system would be linked with rent pressure rules. Those rules limit hikes to no more than 2 per cent a year. This could see some tenants given a higher subsidy than might be available to other tenants applying for new costal arrangements in new units, it is understood.
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