PoliticsAnalysis

Coalition reeling after reversal on both referendums

Hate speech legislation, stalled in the Seanad, now considered another potential electoral hazard, in addition to review of speed limits

A jubilant Independent Senator Michael McDowell with Independent Wexford TD Verona Murphy and Independent Galway West TD Noel Grealish (right) celebrate the result at the Dublin Castle count centre. Photograph: Tom Honan
A jubilant Independent Senator Michael McDowell with Independent Wexford TD Verona Murphy and Independent Galway West TD Noel Grealish (right) celebrate the result at the Dublin Castle count centre. Photograph: Tom Honan
Jack Horgan-Jones's picture
Jack Horgan-Jones
Mon Mar 11 2024 - 06:00

There is no hiding the scale of the loss for the Coalition in the two referendums. The postmortem within Government is frank, with several figures from the different parties comparing the result to kicks from the electorate to various parts of the anatomy.

“There was no burning reason for this referendum,” confided one Fianna Fáil source. The list of complaints is long — from the timing of the vote in the electoral cycle, the ramming through of the legislation enabling it, the short campaign period, polling being held on International Womens’ Day and Ministers being uninspiring (or absent) when it came to campaigning.

The Government was yesterday trying to wrap its collective head around what the result means. On the one hand, it is unlikely to be a Coalition-threatening event in and of itself, and projecting directly from the outcome to the local and European elections, or the general election beyond that, is problematic.

Irish Times political correspondent Jennifer Bray reports from Dublin Castle count centre on a day when two referendums were rejected by the country.

There is indeed no perfect correlation between referendum losses and how a government fares in the next election — and the exceptionally broad coalition of No voters will not re-emerge as a single force in a party political election.

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However, the result — particularly the scale of the loss — has sent shock waves through the Coalition. The fear is less about the direct political consequences of the outcome, and more that it may reveal an underlying mood in the electorate which is disgruntled with the Government and with a political system which it feels does not have its best interests at heart.

Independent TD for Wexford Verona Murphy, who celebrated with prominent No campaigners in Dublin Castle on Saturday, diagnosed it as a wider disenchantment with party politics.

“[Voters] are not happy with the fact that parties are not serving the people, that they are only interested in government from Dublin.”

‘Two wallops’ for Government as No-No vote emerges strong

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One Fianna Fáil Minister said: “What it demonstrates for me is the absolute volatility of the electorate”. The Minister added: “There’s a frustration and impatience within the electorate and that volatility could spew itself in any direction.”

This fear — that there is a new underlying instability in Irish politics — is encouraging some to seek the safety of core issues for their base. One Fine Gael source said on Sunday that now “in terms of political priorities, it’s tax, jobs and police”.

There is also a nervousness about what the next landmine issue could be. One Fine Gael source expressed concerns about a review of speed limits. The hate speech legislation stalled in the Seanad is seen as another potential hazard.

Former Fine Gael minister for justice Charlie Flanagan has raised concerns with party colleagues about a range of issues coming down the line which may prompt a backlash from the electorate or Fine Gael voters in particular. These include euthanasia, the abortion review and extended opening hours for pubs. Over the weekend, Flanagan wrote to Fine Gael parliamentary party chairman Alan Dillon seeking an early meeting to discuss the referendum outcomes.

It is a big, or “seismic” as one source put it, shock to the system, giving rise to significant concerns about the proximity between this and the local and European elections.

“The protest and discontent thing could be hard to contain,” said a Government source.

The chance of holding any more referendums (beyond the patent court vote in June) sketched out in the programme for government had been very slim, but now polls on a right to housing or public ownership of water are, privately, being ruled out entirely.

Peadar Tóibín, TD leader of Aontú, says the government's referendum messaging was confusing and that a no vote indicates a lack of trust by the general public.

Those within the Coalition who favour going the distance and not holding a general election until the end of the Government’s term believe their case has been strengthened, with voters now seen to be extremely alert to anything opportunistic.

“The public are in a cynical mood and anything that feeds the cynicism will spectacularly backfire,” predicted one Fianna Fáil source. An early budget and a warp-speed Finance Bill followed by a late autumn election would fall squarely into that category, argues this person.

The effect on internal cohesion is also clear. There is no shortage of criticism for the leaders and Ministers tasked with helming the campaign Minister of State for Older People Mary Butler took aim at Coalition colleagues for not getting behind the referendum campaign.

The Government is entering a vital period having just suffered a big blow to its confidence and morale — building momentum amid growing uncertainty will be a big challenge.