Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris has already secured the public backing of almost half of Fine Gael TDs and Senators for his bid to become the next taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael.
Within three hours of announcing his candidacy, the Wicklow TD had been publicly endorsed by 24 of the 54 members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party. Nine TDs, 13 Senators and three MEPs have said they will support Mr Harris, who has been considered the front-runner since Leo Varadkar’s surprise announcement on Wednesday that he was resigning as party leader with immediate effect.
The strong showing of support so early may dissuade other potential candidates from declaring. Two senior ministers, Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee, separately confirmed on Thursday morning that they would not be standing. The focus has now turned to the Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe, and also to the Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys.
Both are understood to be weighing up their options and gauging support for their leadership within the party. Mr Donohoe was due to give a live interview on Six-One News last night but pulled out several hours beforehand, fuelling speculation he was considering a run. Likewise Ms Humphreys has not made any public appearances since shortly after Mr Varadkar’s announcement.
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Both would be considered as serious contenders. Notably, no senior Minister has publicly backed Mr Harris yet. However, more TDs and Senators are expected to announce they are backing him at lunchtime, pushing him close to having secured the endorsements of half (or 27 members) of the parliamentary party.
Given the weightings of the electoral chapel used by Fine Gael to elect its leaders, where the parliamentary party vote is worth 65 per cent of the overall total, a rival would need overwhelming support from councillors (10 per cent) and the party’s grassroots members (25 per cent) to overcome Mr Harris’ advantage among TDs, Senators and MEPs.
One party TD, speaking to The Irish Times this morning, said privately the momentum behind Mr Harris is beginning to appear “like a juggernaut”.
On LMFM on Thursday morning, Ms McEntee said she would not be putting her name forward for the leadership race, saying it was “not the right time”. Likewise, Mr Coveney announced on Wednesday evening he would not be putting his name forward. He contested the leadership contest against Mr Varadkar in 2017.
Minister of State for Business Neale Richmond became the first TD to publicly back Harris on Thursday morning, and his announcement came at the same time as a number of councillors and senators also gave the Minister for Higher Education their backing.
“If Simon Harris does declare, I’ll absolutely be backing him to lead our party and be the next Taoiseach,” Mr Richmond said on RTÉ's Morning Ireland.
“I feel now is the opportunity for a step change for the party and for the Government. Simon is something different, something new. Now is an opportunity for the party to move forward. I would welcome a contest. It would be a good thing, but ultimately I will support Simon. I do think Simon Harris is the best person for the job,” Richmond said.
Since then two other junior Ministers – Minister of State for European Affairs, Peter Burke, and Minister of State for the Office of Public Works and the Gaeltacht, Patrick O’Donovan – have also publicly backed Mr Harris.
Three of the five MEPs have also backed him. They are: Frances Fitzgerald, Maria Walsh and Seán Kelly.
Besides Mr Richmond, Mr Burke and Mr O’Donovan, Dáil deputies who have pledged public support for him include: Colm Burke; Colm Brophy; Frankie Feighan; Alan Farrell; Brendan Griffin and Emer Higgins.
Senators who support him include: Barry Ward; John McGahon; Martin Conway; Michael Carrigy; Tim Lombard; Mary Seery Kearney; Regina Doherty; John Cummins; Garret Ahearn; Paddy Burke; Emer Currie; and Seán Kyne.
Nominations for leader of Fine Gael will open today and close on Monday. A nominee will need at least 10 per cent backing, a minimum of six party members. There will then be regional hustings on March 26th, 27th and 28th, with voting among party councillors on April 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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