Common GroundAnalysis

Farage’s long shadow crosses the Irish Sea to influence how unionists might vote

The TUV is contesting 14 of the North’s 18 constituencies. It will not win any of them but it could cause serious damage to the DUP, its leader Gavin Robinson and more widely to unionism

The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice Jim Allister. He says 'the TUV are not the dividers of unionism'. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA Wire
The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice Jim Allister. He says 'the TUV are not the dividers of unionism'. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA Wire
Gerry Moriarty's picture
Gerry Moriarty
Mon Jul 01 2024 - 02:00

Jim Allister and his Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party appear intent on doing to the Democratic Unionist Party what Nigel Farage hopes to inflict on the Tories in the upcoming UK general election, which is a considerable degree of political devastation.

As far as the polls say Farage, as leader of the Reform UK party, looks to be on course to add to the current misery of Rishi Sunak by sweeping up tens of thousands of badly-needed votes that might otherwise go to the Conservatives in their attempts to limit the damage Labour seems destined to wreak come voting day.

Farage casts a long political shadow and it has crossed the Irish Sea to influence, in a curious and almost comical way, how unionists might vote on Thursday.

Allister and Farage, two political mavericks, come across as natural bedfellows, particularly due to their zealous Brexitphilia and their ability to swing political wrecking balls.

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It made perfect sense, therefore, that before Farage became its leader that the Reform UK party, then under Richard Tice, should form an alliance with the TUV. And even when Farage decided that rather than stay in the background he should take over Reform and run for election, the Reform-TUV axis appeared a well-forged partnership.

But then Farage did what mavericks do: go his own way. “As far as the Northern Ireland thing is concerned,” he said, “I want to make it clear that whilst there have been negotiations going on in previous times I will personally be endorsing Ian Paisley and Sammy Wilson.”

Farage’s almost dismissive description of “the Northern Ireland thing” grated with the TUV leader but his support for Wilson in East Antrim and more especially for Paisley in North Antrim, which Allister also is contesting, was heavily ladling the injury on to the insult.

Reform’s co-deputy leader Ben Habib, striving for damage limitation, tweeted that his party “stands shoulder to shoulder” with the TUV “and supports all its candidates in Northern Ireland. ALL of them!!”

Regardless of the double exclamation marks and capital letters that didn’t make sense as Allister was forced to concede when he told BBC Radio Ulster’s Talkback programme that the situation was “rather incongruous”.

There also was reference to Mark Paul’s interview with Farage in The Irish Times in September where he said that “one day there will be a united Ireland”. Allister’s droll response was that Farage’s contribution to the Brexit debate was “unparalleled” but he had “some idiosyncrasies that come to the surface from time to time”.

Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley lapped it all up, with Paisley quick to get Farage’s endorsement on to his election leaflets.

But while mildly entertaining this is a sideshow to what is the main issue of the election campaign in Northern Ireland, and that is who will have the last laugh. The TUV is contesting 14 of the North’s 18 constituencies. It won’t win any of them but it could cause serious damage to the DUP and its leader Gavin Robinson, and more widely to unionism.

The current breakdown of House of Commons seats from the 2019 general election is eight seats for the DUP, seven for Sinn Féin, two for the SDLP and one for Alliance.

The three constituencies where the DUP is most vulnerable are East Belfast, Lagan Valley and South Antrim.

The biggest tussle is in East Belfast where Gavin Robinson is seeking to hold off the challenge from Alliance leader Naomi Long. In 2019 he had a majority over Long of just over 1,800 votes. The TUV did not contest the 2019 general election but in the Assembly election in 2022, John Ross – who is running in this election – won 3,087 votes. Ross did not win an Assembly seat but if he polls similarly this time he could lose Robinson his seat. And that would be the headline of the election in the North.

In 2019 the DUP’s Paul Girvan won South Antrim with a majority of 2,689 votes from his nearest challenger, the Ulster Unionist Danny Kinahan. This time the UUP is fielding Robin Swann, who made a positive impression as health minister during Covid.

In the Assembly election the TUV’s current candidate Mel Lucas did not take a seat but won a creditable 4,371 votes which, if he reprises that vote or close to it, could assist in dislodging Girvan and handing the seat to Swann. The DUP also is putting it about that unionist splitting of the vote could open the door for Sinn Féin’s Declan Kearney. While just about possible that seems highly unlikely.

Lorna Smyth is running for the TUV in Lagan Valley where DUP Assembly member Jonathan Buckley is hoping to hold on to the seat vacated by Jeffrey Donaldson. In 2019 Donaldson held a majority of 6,499 votes over Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood, who again is seeking to capture the constituency.

In the Assembly election two years ago Smyth won 3,488 votes, 3,000 votes short of Donaldson, but a different dynamic is applying this time and again the TUV could split the unionist vote to the advantage of Alliance.

It is clear, therefore, there is a lot at stake both for the DUP and for unionism in general. As far as Allister is concerned he is taking a principled stand, to quote TUV election literature, in saying “no to EU and Sinn Féin rule”.

And while the TUV kept out of the last Westminster election, thus assisting the DUP, Allister is unapologetic about entering the fray this time. His justification is his claim that the DUP “irretrievably forfeited” the trust of voters with its “deception” over the Windsor Framework deal which Donaldson and his then chief lieutenant Gavin Robinson accepted to restore the powersharing administration at Stormont.

“The TUV are not the dividers of unionism,” Allister has contended.

The DUP is resisting, with Robinson saying that more modifications are needed to the Irish Sea border deal while warning about “those who can’t win and who don’t care if they splinter the pro-union vote and reduce the number of pro-union MPs representing Northern Ireland in parliament”.

Simply put, that is where the story lies. But will sufficient numbers of unionists heed that warning? That will hinge on whether most unionists remain as exercised as Allister is about the troublesome consequences of Brexit or whether they can live with Robinson’s pragmatic position.

Were the DUP to lose one, two or three seats and Sinn Féin end up on equal terms or holding the most House of Commons seats – as it now does in the Assembly – then the blame game will spark quickly into action. It would be another political seminal moment in that it would bolster Sinn Féin and the campaigning Ireland’s Future group’s push for a Border poll on a united Ireland.

There also would be the question over whether powersharing could be sustained with the possibility of a weakened and deeply divided DUP turning in on itself.

If that is the outcome it appears Allister would have no qualms about doing a number on the DUP just as Farage has no misgivings about sticking it into the Conservatives.

Asked on BBC last week specifically about the TUV splitting East Belfast in favour of Naomi Long, Allister replied, “I will not carry the guilt of the DUP if they have lost the confidence of their unionist voters”.