PoliticsAnalysis

Fifteen of 35 Fine Gael TDs who won in 2020 will not run again. What does this mean for the party?

Party could use departures as opportunity to put forward more women candidates

Simon Harris and Heather Humphries with Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar, both of whom have announced they will not seek re-election. Photograph Nick Bradshaw for The Irish Times
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Cormac McQuinn
Fri Aug 02 2024 - 11:30

The decision by experienced Fine Gael TDs not to contest the next general election has left gaping holes in the party’s election tickets.

Fifteen of the 35 Fine Gael TDs who won seats in 2020 have confirmed they will not run in an election expected as early as the autumn.

One or two more may announce departures before then.

The impending exodus can be seen as a headache for the new leader, Taoiseach Simon Harris, and the party, even if Fine Gael sources reject suggestions it is a crisis.

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So what are the downsides to losing so many well-known names and are there any opportunities?

David Farrell, a UCD politics professor, said the advantage offered by incumbency in elections is important “so losing big names could hurt Fine Gael”, but he adds: “It could be argued that a sea of fresh faces led by a fresh leader could be a strong sell.”

Fourteen of the 15 politicians not contesting the election are men, so there is an opportunity for Fine Gael to select women who could replace some of them, which might help the party reach the 40 per cent gender quota threshold in place at the next election, Farrell says.

So far, just four of the 14 candidates selected across seven constituencies are women, so the party has some work to do, though more female candidates are expected to be nominated in the coming weeks.

[ State not doing enough to encourage more women to enter politics, human rights watchdog warns ]

Former senior minister Richard Bruton, one of the departing TDs, said of the incumbency dilemma: “It’s easy to overstate the personal vote that any one candidate has. When the tide goes out for a party, you see how very big names fall by the wayside.” He said this happened to Fine Gael in 2002.

On the flipside, he said: “If the wind is in your sail I think there are huge opportunities for new candidates and they can often best catch that bounce.”

Bruton believes Harris as leader has “brought a fresh impetus” for Fine Gael and there is “a sense that the party is in good shape.”

He described the results of the June 7th local election, where Fine Gael lost 10 seats but did better than expected, as “exceptionally good for us”.

Bruton said a lot of those elected “are now prospective candidates that have a strong base in their local constituencies”.

So who is running – or might run – in the place of the departing TDs and how is the party likely to fare in its bid to retain the seats?

In Bruton’s old bailiwick, Dublin Bay North, he is “confident” but “not complacent” about Fine Gael retaining the seat.

Two other incumbents – Fianna Fáil’s Seán Haughey and newly elected Dublin MEP Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour – are not contesting the election, which opens up the constituency somewhat.

Experienced Dublin city councillors Naoise Ó Muirí and Aoibhinn Tormey are running for Fine Gael in the five-seater.

Across the Liffey current Lord Mayor James Geoghegan has been selected in Dublin Bay South. He failed to get elected in the 2021 byelection caused by former minister for housing Eoghan Murphy leaving politics, coming second to now-Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik.

Traditionally seen as a Fine Gael heartland, the constituency produced two seats for the party before high-profile former TD Kate O’Connell lost hers in 2020.

It is considered likely a name will be added to the ticket, with much speculation focused on O’Connell – despite the strained relationship she had with the party locally. Councillor Emma Blain is also mentioned as a possible candidate.

Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s replacement on the Dublin West ticket will not be selected until September. Senator Emer Currie is in pole position for a place on the ticket, though others such as Fingal councillors Ted Leddy and Siobhán Shovlin could put their names forward.

Expect Varadkar to put in great efforts to ensure this seat is not lost come election day, a task that may be easier given the addition of a seat in Dublin West in last year’s constituency review.

Dublin Rathdown was the only constituency where Fine Gael returned two TDs in 2020. One of them, former minister Josepha Madigan, is not contesting the next election.

Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown councillor Maeve O’Connell has been tipped to run alongside sitting TD and junior finance minister Neale Richmond. Dublin-Rathdown also had an extra seat added in the constituency review. Fine Gael could plausibly retain two seats.

Former tánaiste Simon Coveney is the most high-profile departure in Cork. The party has selected two candidates in his former constituency Cork South Central – city councillor Shane O’Callaghan and Carrgaline-based county councillor Úna McCarthy.

The constituency has an extra seat in the next election and the possibility of another Fine Gael candidate being added has not been ruled out. Unsuccessful European election candidate John Mullins or Seanad Cathaoirleach Jerry Buttimer are options.

Mark Stanton, the son of departing TD David Stanton, has been selected to run in Cork East along with councillor Noel McCarthy.

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In Cork North-West former agriculture minister Michael Creed has been replaced on the ticket by his cousin, a councillor also named Michael Creed. Cllr John Paul O’Shea has also been selected there.

Cllr Tommy Griffin, the cousin of departing TD Brendan Griffin, has been tipped to run in Kerry. Cllr Mike Kennelly and first time-councillor Angie Baily are possible candidates.

Former minister for justice Charlie Flanagan’s departure leaves a vacancy in the newly created three-seat Laois constituency. Councillor Conor Bergin is seeking the party’s nomination while experienced councillor Willie Aird may also fancy running.

The other two sitting TDs Fianna Fáil’s Seán Fleming and Brian Stanley of Sinn Féin are strong incumbents and, although Fine Gael would be expected to take a seat, the result is unpredictable with Flanagan leaving the electoral arena.

In Wexford, now down to a four seats due to a boundary change, the party has selected councillors Bridín Murphy and Cathal Byrne to run in a bid to keep departing TD Paul Kehoe’s seat.

Three candidates have been selected to run in Carlow-Kilkenny, where John Paul Phelan is not seeking re-election. They are Kilkenny-based councillors David Fitzgerald and Michael Doyle, and Catherine Callaghan who missed out on a Carlow County Council seat by just one vote in June.

With sitting TD Fergus O’Dowd departing, the Fine Gael ticket in Louth is wide open. There is uncertainty over whether his 2020 running mate, Senator John McGahon, will seek nomination.

In a High Court case last month McGahon was ordered to pay a man €39,000 over a late-night assault outside a pub in 2018. McGahon denied the claims in the civil case and said he was assaulted and acted in self-defence. He was found not guilty in a previous criminal trial arising from the incident.

McGahon did not respond to attempts to contact him about whether he will seek to get on the Fine Gael ticket in Louth.

New councillors Ejiro O’Hare Stratton and Anne-Marie Ford could provide Drogheda-based options for the ticket while former MEP Colm Markey has been mentioned as a potential candidate.

There has been speculation that high-profile Fine Gael politician Mairead McGuinness, Ireland’s current European Commissioner, could run in the constituency, with her term in Brussels coming to an end in October. She told the Business Post in recent days she said she wants to see out her time as commissioner while not ruling out the possibility of a return to Irish politics.

West of the Shannon, veteran Mayo TD Michael Ring is the latest TD to confirm he will not contest the election, announcing on Tuesday that he would not stand. Castlebar-based junior housing minister Alan Dillon is expected to contest the election while Ballyhaunis councillor Alma Gallagher is seen as an option to join him on the ticket.

Galway East, where Ciarán Cannon is stepping down, will have an extra seat at the next election and Fine Gael may pursue a two-candidate strategy Councillors Andrew Reddington and PJ Murphy – both of whom got strong votes in the local election – are possible contenders.

Donegal is a tricky constituency for the party, with former minister Joe McHugh parting ways with Fine Gael over the issue of mica-damaged homes. He is not seeking re-election.

The Taoiseach last month appointed disability rights campaigner Nikki Bradley to the Seanad and the Donegal native has not ruled out a future Dáil run for Fine Gael. Councillor Manus Boyle, who is close to the fishing industry, is another possibility.

Fine Gael sources would not offer predictions on the number of these seats it will retain.

One source insisted TDs are not bowing out because Fine Gael is “in the doldrums”, saying some stepped back for personal reasons and others have “served in the public eye for a very long time”.

“Politicians are human beings and it is a tough business,” a source said. “It’s neither crisis nor opportunity [for Fine Gael]. It’s just life.”