Despite the Government insisting there won’t be a general election this side of Christmas, political parties are ramping up their selection of candidates in preparation.
A total of 148 candidates have been selected or declared for the next Dáil election, the latest data compiled by Maynooth University lecturer Dr Adrian Kavanagh shows.
Selections have gradually been increasing over recent weeks and are likely to accelerate with most parties setting a deadline for the end of September. Dr Kavanagh notes the pattern of candidate selection has been “very different” to the last general election in February 2020.
“Last time, a lot of constituencies had selections done over a year before[the election],” he said. “In January 2019 there were 307 candidates [out of a total of 516] that I knew of, had already been selected or declared. That was 13 months before the general election.”
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The different pace this time is likely due to a number of factors, Dr Kavanagh says: assessing the success of candidates at the local and European elections in June; the higher gender quota; and getting to grips with changes to electoral boundaries that were announced at the end of last summer.
The Electoral Commission recommended that the next Dáil would see 174 TDs representing 43 constituencies, up from the current 160 elected representatives in 39 constituencies.
The gender quota for political parties running candidates for election will increase from 30 to 40 per cent. The penalty if parties don’t reach quotas of 40 per cent women (and 40 per cent men) candidates is that they lose 50 per cent of State funding.
This week, Monica Oikeh, a GP who moved to Ireland 20 years ago from Nigeria, was selected as a candidate for the Green Party in Cork South Central. Minister for Education Norma Foley was chosen as Fianna Fáil’s candidate for Kerry.
Fine Gael will hold selection conventions for Donegal on August 26th and Offaly on August 29th.
Fifteen of the 35 Fine Gael TDs who won seats four years ago have confirmed they will not run for the next Dáil, including former taoiseach Leo Varadkar and former ministers Simon Coveney, Josepha Madigan, Michael Creed, Charlie Flanagan, Ciarán Cannon and Michael Ring.
The party will face a significant challenge as it tries to find candidates to replace the 15.
When Taoiseach Simon Harris comes to consider the timing of the election, one of the big quandaries he will face is whether or not his new candidates, who are predominantly councillors, are sufficiently known outside their own areas.
To date, the party has completed 17 selection conventions, with 26 still to be held, including for Varadkar’s constituency of Dublin West, Mayo (Ring) and Galway East (Cannon).
No candidate has come forward in Mayo and Mr Ring’s daughter Suzanne has ruled herself out as has Mayo-based MEP Maria Walsh.
“The Fine Gael executive council has requested that all Fine Gael Dáil selection conventions take place by September 22nd and the party is on target to meet this request,” a spokeswoman for the party said this week.
“This is to ensure that all new candidates have ample opportunity to prepare, build profile and meet constituents in advance of the general election which is due on or before March 22nd, 2025.”
Fine Gael councillor and Lord Mayor of Dublin James Geoghegan was the first general election candidate to be selected by the party in January and will be running in Dublin Bay South.
Geoghegan ran unsuccessfully in the 2021 byelection and was chosen over fellow local representatives Emma Blain, Punam Rane and Danny Byrne. There has been speculation over recent months whether a second name will be added to the ticket; namely former TD and pharmacist Kate O’Connell.
She did not put her name forward for the byelection – held to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of former minister for housing Eoghan Murphy – nor was she a candidate for selection at the beginning of this year, however she is seen as a close ally of the Taoiseach.
Speaking at the Fine Gael Ardfheis in April, O’Connell said it would be up to the new Taoiseach to decide if he wanted her to run in any future elections and it is understood she has yet to make up her mind about running again.
Geoghegan has previously warned that the party risks splitting its vote and losing if it runs two candidates in the constituency, which covers Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Portobello, Ranelagh, Rathmines, Ringsend, Sandymount and Terenure.
“For Fine Gael in Dublin Bay South, we currently have no TDs and previously where it was the case Fine Gael had no TDs in Dublin Bay South, the strategy was to run one candidate,” Geoghegan said this week.
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“There will be a lot of factors that will go into this. Ultimately that will be a decision for the party leader and the national executive of Fine Gael. I’m just focused on ensuring that I win the seat back for Fine Gael whenever the next general election happens ... whatever happens, whatever the party leader and the national executive decide, I will absolutely live with.”
Elsewhere, Fianna Fáil’s outgoing TD for Galway West Éamon Ó Cuív confirmed TV presenter Grainne Seoige has expressed interest in standing for the party in the constituency at the next general election.
From the Gaeltacht village of An Spidéal , Seoige is believed to be well placed to secure the nomination. Ó Cuív said he would not be backing any candidate.
The selection convention for the constituency, which takes in Galway city, Clifden and part of south Co Mayo, is expected to happen in early September.
It is understood neither of the party’s two sitting councillors in Connemara, Máirtín Lee or Gerry King, will be putting their names forward. The leading candidates in the east of the constituency are Senator Ollie Crowe and city councillors John Connolly and Eddie Cheevers.
Fianna Fáil has so far selected 22 candidates from 19 constituencies.
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A spokeswoman for the party said selection conventions will be taking place throughout August and September and the expectation is they will be completed before the budget on October 1st.
The Green Party is leading the way in terms of candidates selected, with 24 officially declared while it intends to contest in every constituency.
The Labour Party has selected 15 candidates and said it plans to get the rest of its conventions completed “as soon as possible” and will also run candidates in all 43 constituencies.
Its newly elected MEP Aodhán Ó Ríordáin has said he will not be running in the next general election with the party yet to decide who will be on the ticket in his outgoing constituency of Dublin Bay North.
The Social Democrats have completed 13 conventions with six more planned for the coming week. The party said it is not planning to run a candidate in every constituency but is “continuing to build the party with a view to doing that in any subsequent election”.
People Before Profit said they have 10 candidates selected; six men and four women. “Our aspiration will be to hit 50:50 in terms of gender breakdown and intend on running in all Dáil constituencies,” a spokesman for the party said. “Most of the remaining selections will take place in late August and early September.”
Aontú said it has 21 candidates ratifiedand plans to run candidates in every constituency.
Independent Ireland said its selection process is ongoing and they will start to announce general election candidates from early September.
“We aim to run candidates in as many constituencies as possible although no final figure has been decided as yet,” a spokesman for the party said.
Sinn Féin said it was working its way through conventions and intended to have them completed by its ardfheis at the end of September.
Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward were selected as the party’s candidates for Dublin Mid West on Wednesday night, while the decision to run a third person on the ticket has not been ruled out.
The constituency, which encompasses Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown, Rathcoole and Saggart, will go from a four to a five-seater at the next election, gaining the electoral division of Tallaght-Fettercairn.
“We’re leaving ourselves the option to select a third candidate if we feel there’s a need and a chance of getting that third candidate elected,” said Ward. “It will be down to our local members. We had a couple of meetings in relation to the selection convention, the members agreed that myself and Eoin will be contesting the next general election and they’ve also agreed that we would come back and have further discussions if needed in relation to a third candidate.”
While Ó Broin and Ward comfortably took the first two seats in Dublin Mid West last time, a third candidate would undoubtedly be a woman, with newly elected South Dublin county councillor Niamh Fennell seen as a possibility.
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