The political season grinds back into gear in the coming days with the first autumn Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, budget negotiations set to ramp up and whispers of an imminent general election.
Upon first glance, the summer was quiet. But the empty halls of Leinster House tell their own story. Under this calm surface, a fundamental change to the face of Irish politics has been gathering pace as frantic election preparations continue. What started as a trickle of veteran TDs announcing their retirement has become a flood. If we include those who are heading to Europe, 33 politicians who were elected in 2020 will not be running next time around.
Some 27 of those are retiring TDs, many of whom are well-known political fixtures and household names. Combined, the group has a staggering 600 years of Dáil experience. Their departures will usher in a sea of new faces to Leinster House. Some of the new candidates are related to the retiring TDs; many are not. Not only will the next Dáil look very different, it will be bigger too: the number of TDs will rise from 160 to 174 following a recommendation from the Electoral Commission in response to a larger population.
New gender rules also come into play. If a party wants to keep its State funding, then at least 40 per cent of their general election candidates will have to be women.
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On Friday, another well-known political face announced their retirement. Independent TD for Louth Peter Fitzpatrick confirmed he would not run in the next general election. He was first elected for Fine Gael in 2011, but left the party after stating that he felt isolated after he took a stance opposing the repeal of the Eighth Amendment.
The level of change is (so far) most pronounced for Fine Gael with 15 current TDs departing politics. This week Fine Gael TD for Clare Joe Carey became the latest TD to announce he was leaving. He announced on Monday that he was resigning as a public representative on medical advice.
Between his father and himself, former minister for justice and Laois-Offaly TD Charlie Flanagan counts 80 years of public service and 23 general elections.
“Renewal is crucial and Fine Gael is no different,” said Flanagan, adding the time is right for him to pass the baton.
“Around the country, new, young, ambitious and many experienced candidates are emerging who will bring fresh thinking and new ideas to politics. This is the essence of renewal and is wholly good for political life.”
While there is certainly opportunity for renewal for Fine Gael, the fact remains that losing key players – not to mention nearly half of your parliamentary party – is a significant headwind.
Between them, retiring senior party figures Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Richard Bruton have more than 80 years of Dáil experience. In Varadkar’s constituency of Dublin West, which will go from four to five seats at the next election, a selection convention will likely be held in mid-September, just before Fine Gael’s deadline of September 22nd. This is the date by which all general election candidates have to be chosen (further fuelling election speculation). In the mix are Fine Gael senator Emer Currie and Cllr Ted Leddy. Where Fine Gael might have targeted a second seat last time around, the focus in the constituency may be on simply getting one of them elected.
In Coveney’s constituency of Cork South Central, which is also going from four to five seats, it’s a similar situation. With Coveney’s personal vote gone, the idea of securing a second seat is very much up in the air. Councillors Shane O’Callaghan and Una McCarthy have been chosen to run. In Dublin Bay North, where Richard Bruton has held a seat at every general election since February 1982, Fine Gael has selected councillors Naoise Ó Muirí and Aoibhinn Tormey. There is certainly one Fine Gael seat in the constituency, but anything beyond that will very much depend on whether the shot of adrenaline administered by Simon Harris lingers.
In Fianna Fáil, the party will miss established vote-getters such as former Offaly TD Barry Cowen who secured an MEP seat in Midlands North West and veteran politician Éamon Ó Cuív, who will depart the stage after holding his Galway West seat in every general election since 1992.
With the Fianna Fáil selection conventions also due to wrap up by the end of September, it seems part of the strategy is to embrace celebrity candidates. Broadcaster Gráinne Seoige is poised to contest in Galway West, while another broadcaster and journalist, Alison Comyn, will stand in Louth.
The loss of experienced TDs to Europe is also being felt in the Labour Party, with the election of Aodhán Ó Ríordáin as an MEP for Dublin. He was once touted as a possible leadership contender. Brendan Howlin, who led the party from 2016 to 2020, served in three Cabinets and will soon hang up his boots on a 42-year Dáil career. He said he was less concerned about the impact of retiring veterans on individual parties and more worried about the impact of that loss of institutional experience on the workings of the Dáil.
“There are moments in time when there’s a significant shift. There is a natural sequence of change, and the next Dáil will be a very different creature,” he said.
Howlin has been working on a succession plan in his constituency of Wexford “for a long time” to ensure his replacement – Cllr George Lawlor – has the best chance of retaining that once-guaranteed seat for Labour.
It’s a trickier situation in Cork East where Sean Sherlock is retiring. The Electoral Commission recommended that 14,400 people in Mallow and its surrounds, which were in the Cork East constituency, be added to the Cork North Central. The change splintered Sherlock’s base and ultimately tipped him towards stepping away from politics. Here, there was no time for a lengthy succession plan such as the one designed by Howlin in Wexford.
One of the big questions to be answered by the forthcoming general election is: will the departure of these veteran faces have a sizeable impact on votes?
The answer will probably be: it depends on the constituency. Similar to Labour, other smaller parties are grappling with this same issue. In the Social Democrats, the two co-founders, Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall, will step down. Some locals who were loyal to Shortall and Murphy in both constituencies privately admit that they are unsure if they will transfer their vote to the replacement candidates. The party has selected housing campaigner Rory Hearne in Shortall’s constituency of Dublin North West and Cllr Aidan Farrell in Murphy’s constituency of Kildare North.
In the Green Party, the former party leader Eamon Ryan will step down, with councillor and former lord mayor Hazel Chu due to run in his place in Dublin Bay North.
In People Before Profit, Bríd Smith will also leave. She had been assiduously preparing the stage in Dublin South Central for her replacement, Cllr Hazel De Nortúin.
And then, of course, there is Sinn Féin.
Here, the problem is less about retiring TDs and more about strategy, although they will miss Louth TD Imelda Munster after she secured a sizeable 24 per cent first-preference vote in 2020. A criticism of Sinn Féin in the recent local and European elections was that the party ran too many candidates, many of them new faces, at a time when the Sinn Féin vote had almost inexplicably cratered.
Party sources say that in most constituencies, at least two candidates will be run. Just how much they pare back their three-candidate ambitions remains to be seen. In constituencies such as Donegal it will still make sense to run a third candidate alongside Pearse Doherty and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn.
This week, Sinn Féin selected Nicole Ryan to run in Cork North West. Ryan, who runs a drug education social enterprise, will be hoping to take advantage of Fine Gael’s moment of weakness in the constituency with the imminent departure of Michael Creed. In this constituency, housing is a major issue, which Sinn Féin will play to. Here, Fine Gael have chosen Cllr John Paul O’Shea and Cllr Michael Creed, cousin of Michael. Ryan will also have to contend with Fianna Fáil’s incumbency advantage, with Aindrias Moynihan and Michael Moynihan (no relation) both expected to run again.
Sinn Féin is still strategising in many constituencies, including in Carlow Kilkenny, where Kathleen Funchion topped the poll in 2020 but is not running for the next Dáil after she secured an MEP seat for Ireland South in June.
In Louth, where Imelda Munster will retire, sitting TD Ruairí Ó Murchú will run again, covering off the Dundalk vote. He will be joined by Cllr Joanna Byrne in Drogheda, who comfortably retained her seat in Drogheda Urban in June’s local elections at a time when her three female running mates failed to make it across the line.
Byrne has been vocal about the housing crisis, proving that for Sinn Féin, the forthcoming election will likely be about getting back to basics.
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