Good morning.
The days when the entire political class woke up on the morning after budget day with a hangover are long gone; Leinster House is a more abstemious and less ribald place nowadays, which is both a good and a bad thing.
But the two budget Ministers, Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe, could be forgiven a moan when they see some of the reviews of their great budget extravaganza this morning.
Our front page leads with the criticism by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac), which said Budget 2025 “repeats Ireland’s past mistakes of pumping billions into the economy when it is at full employment”.
Budget 2025 main points: Energy credits, bonus welfare payments, higher minimum wage and tax changes
Budget 2025 calculator: How this year’s budget will affect your income
Costing the election manifestos: Making sense of the billions being thrown out by parties to win your vote
VAT cuts for restaurants were a bad idea last month. Why are they a good idea now?
“Ireland needs a more serious vision that delivers on the economy’s needs without repeating the boom-to-bust pattern of its past,” Ifac warned in a “flash” response.
It said the large spending increases would drive inflation, adding an estimated €1,000 to the cost of a typical household’s yearly outgoings.
“Large budget packages in recent years have put money back in people’s pockets,” the council said. “But they have taken it away by pushing up prices.”
The council was also critical of the one-off benefits that have now been repeated for the third year. “The same supports could have been provided to those most in need at a much lower cost,” it said. Ouch.
Even worse, Irish Times economics guru Cliff Taylor warned that the “splurge of once-off cash is not a good use of public money ... much of the benefit goes to those who don’t need it. Households who do require support are left relying on once-off cash for much of this.”
“Temporary measures,” he said, in a tone that suggested more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger, “don’t solve permanent problems”.
Over in the Indo – page one headline: €10 billion voter bribe kicks off election race – that was not the tone struck by Fionnan Sheehan. “Morally bankrupt, fiscally amnesiac and nakedly political,” was his verdict. “Budget 2025 ignores the memories, abandons the economics and abdicates the responsibility.”
Our editorial describes the budget as “incoherent and short-termist”.
The problem with a budget that’s been so heavily trailed in the media beforehand is that people immediately start looking beyond it. So many people around Leinster House just shrugged at yesterday’s massive giveaway, and wondered: “Meh, what’s next?”
When you think of how fortunate – and unusual – is the Irish fiscal position, which enables all this largesse, perhaps you’d wonder if taking it all for granted is really wise. But as Jennifer Bray notes, all eyes are now on the election.
Taoiseach Simon Harris will be out this morning with a gaggle of Fine Gael candidates – a move hardly expected to shush the fevered election chatter.
All our budget coverage is here.
Main points at a glance here.
What’s the politics of all this? Giving away a pile of money to voters a few weeks or months before an election is obviously better than doing the opposite. It won’t guarantee anything. But it surely doesn’t do any harm.
Political analysis is here.
Other news of significance in Ireland:
Pfizer announced it would cut more than 200 jobs at its Irish plants. A reminder of how much Ireland depends on multinationals, not just for employment but for those corporation tax receipts that fuel not just the budget giveaways but also the surpluses that enable the Government to claim prudence while dishing out money.
Keeping the multinationals happy – and attracting new investment – remains one of the essential tasks of any Irish government.
Dominic Coyle’s report is here.
Other things of significance happening in the world: Iran launched a massive missile barrage against Israel. The slide towards war continues.
Best reads
Miriam Lord’s take on budget day
Keith Duggan on last night’s US vice-presidential debate
Michael McDowell on another row that’s brewing
Conor Gallagher on the Irish troops in the eye of the storm in Lebanon
Playbook
Simon Harris starts the day with that canvass with Fine Gael election candidates on St Stephen’s Green at 9am. The traditional budget phone-in with the two budget Ministers is on Claire Byrne at 10am. There’ll be a series of budget press conferences by Ministers and responses by stakeholder groups throughout the day.
The Dáil starts at 10.30am with oral questions to Minister for Integration Roderic O’Gorman, followed by Leaders’ Questions at noon. The rest of the day is taken up by debate on the budget.
The Seanad has a day of debating legislation – the Motor Insurance Insolvency Bill, the Family Courts Bill and the Gambling Regulation Bill.
At the committees, the nurses’ union and Siptu are in to discuss staffing levels at the health committee – it’s just a hunch, but they might find staffing levels to be inadequate. Details of other meetings can be found here.
Meanwhile, today sees the beginning of a State visit by the president of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Tô Lâm, and his wife Madame Ngô Phương Ly.
The visit will begin with a ceremonial welcome at Áras an Uachtaráin on Wednesday, says the Áras, followed by a bilateral meeting between the two heads of State. That evening, the President and Sabina Higgins will host a State dinner in honour of President Lâm and Madame Ly. Exciting. There is much to discuss.
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