The clear consensus among TDs and Senators is that the general election will be held in November, notwithstanding statements from Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin holding out the possibility of a February poll.
All but two of more than 30 parliamentarians contacted by The Irish Times believed a November election is the most likely outcome.
Those contacted included Ministers, Ministers of State, former ministers, and backbenchers. There was some divergence about the actual date during the month.
It was also noted by a senior Minister that the three Coalition leaders have yet to meet to fix an election date.
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Speaking on Wednesday, Mr Harris refused to be drawn on the date. “It’s my constitutional prerogative to call the election, but I have been very clear in relation to wanting to do this in a respectful way at the right time. I think this Government operates very well, and I have great respect for the two Coalition parties that I serve with, and I won’t be providing them with running commentaries or surprises ... I want the Government to finish its work.”
Mr Martin said the Coalition still had considerable legislation to get through the Oireachtas. “My view is that the ideal time is February, that is still my view,” he said.
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Despite Mr Harris and Mr Martin downplaying the prospect of an imminent election, former minister Michael Ring said he believed the election would take place in November. But the Fine Gael TD for Mayo said that Mr Martin’s comments referring to February being ideal raised a degree of doubt in his mind.
Labour Party TD Seán Sherlock also said he believed the election would take place next month.
Fianna Fáil chairwoman of the Oireachtas committee on media Niamh Smyth TD said her assumption was the end of November and expressed a hope for clarity. “I believe it will be November 21st; there has been so much speculation and uncertainty,” she said.
Her party colleague Pat Casey said Mr Harris would call an election once he returned from his visit next week to meet US president Joe Biden in Washington DC during events to mark 100 years of US-Irish diplomatic relations.
“If he calls it, my view is he will go for a short campaign of 18 days, with the election being held on November 15th,” said Mr Casey, a Senator from Wicklow.
The Oireachtas committee on agriculture chairman, Tipperary TD Jackie Cahill, said everything was pointing to a November election, with a poll early in the month more likely.
Clare Fine Gael Senator Martin Conway said he believed the election would not be held until February but conceded that his view was one very much in the minority. Conversely, Senator Dermot Wilson (Fianna Fáil) said the Taoiseach could call an election next week with polling possible by the end of October.
Sinn Féin, Green Party and Independent TDs contacted by The Irish Times all said a November poll. Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald has said on the record she was working on that premise.
Green Party TD Marc Ó Cathasiagh said: “I think the election will be held in November even though, personally, I would prefer it to happen in February.”
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