Who gets to call the election?
It’s not as straightforward a question as you might think. While saying he wants to reach agreement with his partners, Taoiseach Simon Harris has suggested that it is his constitutional prerogative to set the date for the election, but that’s not quite true.
It is up to Harris to effectively call an election by advising President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dáil. But it is up to the Minister for Local Government — Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien — to name the polling date. Electoral law gives him the power to decide when the polling day is and whether it’s a three- or four-week campaign.
Can it be called anytime?
Yes and no. Harris can seek a dissolution whenever he wants. The President signs the declaration and the 33rd Dáil is no more — it no longer exists and there will not be another Dáil until TDs take their seats after the general election. But there are political realities. Many of the measures in the budget will be given effect by the Finance Bill. If the Dáil is dissolved, that Bill can’t be passed and, unless a new Dáil meets before the end of the year and passes it, the budget measures would be void.
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The same applies to many of the social welfare measures — for them to be implemented, the social welfare Bill must be passed. And the energy credit needs another short piece of legislation to be passed.
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Could the Taoiseach do it anyway?
Legally, yes. But on a political level, dissolving the Dáil before passing the Finance Bill would likely be seen as politically and constitutionally reckless. It would be directly at odds with Harris’s determination to “finish the work” of the Government before an election. And this means — unless he wants to go on a dangerous solo run — Harris will need the agreement of his Coalition partners, first on the principle of an early election, to prepare the ground for it.
When will we see the signs of that?
You can already see some signs. Normally the Finance Bill comes some weeks after the budget. This year, it is going to Cabinet next week and will be in the Dáil the following week. The Bill is scheduled to go through committee stage in early November. If there’s going to be a November election, that schedule will have to be accelerated, with the Bill completing all stages in both houses by the end of October. The social welfare Bill is also being fast-tracked for next week (though it may be the week after) and should be finished in both houses by the end of this month.
Is there anything else that has to be passed by the Dáil before it ends?
Yes. All money spent by the Government must be authorised by the Dáil. Every year, in late November or December, the Dáil passes supplementary estimates — essentially top-ups to the spending authorised by the previous year’s budget. This year, officials are preparing to have several supplementary estimates approved by the Cabinet and presented to the Dáil in the week ending Friday, October 18th.
Anything else?
The Government has said that it wants to complete its mammoth planning Bill by mid-October. There is also legislation on gambling, defamation, mental health, maternity cover for women with illnesses and hate crime that the Government wants to get through. These are regarded as desirable; the planning Bill is considered essential. Either way, officials and politicians expect that the guillotine — a parliamentary device that ends debate and calls an immediate vote on the legislation — will be used extensively in the coming weeks.
So where does that leave us?
Everyone expects an early election. If that’s to happen, there will be parliamentary signals soon enough.
