Election 2024Analysis

A race for the magic number across 43 constituencies to rule the largest Dáil in history

Election 2024: The number of seats has risen from 160 to 174, and the only certainty is that there will be plenty of skirmishes and subplots in the electoral battle

Election 2024: The number of Dáil seats has increased by 14, from 160 to 174. In line with this, the number of constituencies increases from 39 to 43. File photograph: Paul Faith/AFP
Election 2024: The number of Dáil seats has increased by 14, from 160 to 174. In line with this, the number of constituencies increases from 39 to 43. File photograph: Paul Faith/AFP
Jennifer Bray's picture
Jennifer Bray Political Correspondent
Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12:42

The 34th Dáil will be the largest in the history of the State. Following recommendations from the Electoral Commission, the number of Dáil seats has increased by 14, from 160 to 174. In line with this, the number of constituencies increases from 39 to 43, with each constituency having between three and five seats.

Those four new constituencies have been formed by the division of existing five-seaters and the creation of a new inter-county constituency of Wexford-Wicklow, comprising the northern end of Wexford and the southern part of Wicklow.

[ Constituency Profiles: We assess the possible outcome of all 43 constituencies ]

There will be a lot of talk from parties in the coming weeks about their candidates being “sure bets”, but at this stage the only guaranteed seat in the next Dáil belongs to outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl, who will be returned automatically. For everyone else, the electoral battles have now begun.

In each constituency profile, we have detailed what change can be expected in terms of seat numbers, geography and candidates.

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A list of newly declared candidates is provided along with the list of outgoing TDs. Many parties supplied lists of their candidates, while Dr Adrian Kavanagh has also assiduously kept track of new announcements throughout recent months on his frequently updated blog. The list will be updated here as more candidates announce, and some may drop out.

Every constituency will have its own individual battle, with internal party strategies resulting in plenty of skirmishes and subplots.

For Sinn Féin, the stakes have never been higher. The party was criticised for running too few candidates in the 2020 general election and too many in the 2024 local and European elections. The pressure is on embattled leader Mary Lou McDonald to get the strategy right this time.

There are constituencies where, this time last year, Sinn Féin would have considered running a three-candidate strategy. This includes Donegal and Dublin Midwest, where it now looks as though two candidates will be put forward in each.

Fine Gael finds itself in a unique and curious position. On one hand, the personal approval ratings of Taoiseach Simon Harris soared over the summer by 17 points to 55 per cent. On the other hand, some 18 TDs (including many party veterans) are retiring, and a slew of new and untested candidates are now on the pitch. Can the leader’s popularity see them through?

In Fianna Fáil, the party leadership had hoped for a later election. Polling has put Fianna Fáil consistently around the 20 per cent mark, but leader Micheál Martin has long argued that Fianna Fáil is underestimated by pollsters. They are fishing in the same pool as their Coalition partner Fine Gael for votes, so expect to see plenty of Fine Gael versus Fianna Fáil battles play out around the country. Despite this, healthy transfers are expected between both parties.

Interesting constituencies to watch out for include the three-seat Offaly constituency, where the ticket will be without a Cowen name for the first time since 1965, following the election of Barry Cowen as MEP. Fianna Fáil is running two candidates here: Cllr Tony McCormack and Cllr Claire Murray. And what fate will befall Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow, who will run unopposed after the decks were cleared amid anxiety about his seat?

It’s a mixed bag for the smaller parties. The Green Party has emerged from more than four years of government a little battered and bruised, but with notable achievements in each budget and in the area of climate change legislation.

Labour leader Ivana Bacik will be hoping to capitalise on better-than-expected local and European elections, while the Social Democrats were also buoyed this summer when they won an extra 16 seats to return 35 councillors. One to watch will be the constituency of party leader Holly Cairns in Cork South West. Conventional wisdom has her in a dogfight for her seat.

A gain of even a few TDs would represent a win for Aontú and People Before Profit.

And then there are the Independents. Many Independent candidates swept the boards in this summer’s local elections, and they’ll be hoping to replicate that success in the general election.

Finally, when the votes are cast and counted, and politicians turn their mind to government formation, they’ll have one magic number in their mind: 88. That’s the number of seats that a party – or more realistically, a coalition of parties – must assemble if they are to form a Government.