Outgoing TDs: Vacant (Aodhán Ó Ríordáin elected MEP), Cian O’Callaghan (SD), Denise Mitchell (SF), Seán Haughey (FF-retiring), Richard Bruton (FG-retiring)
Who are the candidates running in the Dublin Bay North constituency?
- Tom Brabazon (FF)
- Michael Burke (IND)
- Kevin Coyle (IND)
- Stephen Doyle (IND)
- Paul Christopher Fitzsimons (IFP)
- Shane Folan (LAB)
- Brian Garrigan (IND)
- David Healy (GP)
- Barry Heneghan (IND)
- Deirdre Heney (FF)
- John Lyons (IND)
- Michael Mac Donncha (SF)
- Jamie McGlue (IND)
- Denise Mitchell (SF)
- James Morris (AON)
- Bernard Mulvany (PBPS)
- Cian O’Callaghan (SD)
- Diarmaid Ó Conoráin (IND)
- Naoise Ó Muirí (FG)
- Aoibhinn Tormey (FG)
- Source Dublin Bay North returning officer
A five-seater with only two incumbent candidates, the personal votes of Seán Haughey, Richard Bruton and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin will scatter to an extent, introducing an element of randomness to the contest. There will probably be Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil seats, with Naoise Ó Muiri and Tom Brabazon favoured for those parties respectively, ahead of their running mates. But if there’s only one seat each for the two Civil War parties, Deirdre Heney or Aoibhinn Tormey in particular could pull off a surprise – and don’t rule out a second Fine Gael seat.
Denise Mitchell won the highest first-preference vote of any candidate in the country in 2020, but Sinn Féin’s candidates gathered a combined fourth-highest total in last year’s local election. Logic would suggest she has enough of a buffer to keep her seat, but much will come down to how the vote holds up in what would traditionally be Sinn Féin’s working-class heartlands, including Coolock, site of anti-migration protests.
If her running mate, Mícheál Mac Donncha, acts as an effective sweeper, it will boost her chances, but of the Sinn Féin 2020 poll-toppers, she is seen as a potential surprise loss. After a good local election, it looks like Cian O’Callaghan should hold and escape the battle for the last seat, which could end up going to an Independent in the form of John Lyons or Barry Heneghan, who steps into the old Finian McGrath vote. Don’t rule out a second Fine Gael seat either. Labour’s Shane Folan may struggle to hold the former Aodhán Ó Ríordáin seat.
Dublin Bay North has lost territory to Dublin North-West and gained Balgriffin from the old Dublin Fingal constituency. A sprawling constituency, it takes in an expanse of comfortable middle-class coastal areas stretching from Clontarf to Howth, mixed neighbourhoods inland such as Donaghmede, Beaumont and Artane, with lower-income pockets in Edenmore, Darndale and Coolock.
Possible outcome: Fine Gael (1), Fianna Fáil (1), Social Democrats (1), Sinn Féin (1), Independent (1)