A lot can change over the course of an election, particularly as the votes are counted and minds become more focused on how the numbers stack up and which promises might actually be possible to deliver. Just ask Micheál Martin.
In Fianna Fáil’s 2020 general election manifesto there were 37 mentions of Fine Gael – and none were particularly positive.
Then, when Leo Varadkar, pictured on the cover of his party’s manifesto with Simon Coveney, floated the idea of a “grand coalition” in a televised debate in late January, Mr Martin was adamant… “Fine Gael need to come out of government, they’ve been there too long, they haven’t delivered on key issues such as housing, health and the impact of cost of living on many people.” One election count and six weeks later… well, you know the rest.
In terms of actual policy, coalition talks on the formulation of a new government that also included the Greens inevitably impacted on what the three parties had promised.
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Covid played its part too, they would point out, along with the war in Ukraine. As just about everyone promises big again this time around, it is perhaps worth reflecting on how the three parties have lived up to what they said they would do during the last campaign.
Housing
This remains a major problem for the Government. The Coalition has, as the two bigger parties said they would, bolstered supports to first-time buyers. The number of new homes being provided, though, has remained a huge issue.
In early 2020, Fine Gael said it would provide between 35,000 and 40,000 homes per year and add 60,000 social houses over five years. Fianna Fáil said it would build 50,000 affordable homes and introduce measures that facilitate the delivery of 200,000 new homes by 2025.
[ General election: Housing battle sharpens as parties clash on rent freezesOpens in new window ]
Overall numbers have fallen well short of those projections, and while 32,695 homes were delivered in 2023, about 3,500 more than in the Housing for All global targets, the figures for both social and affordable homes came in below what was being aimed for. There is general agreement now that that was too low, with record levels of homelessness and greater unaffordability prevailing.
On the rental front, a mix of supports have been provided, but the shortage of supply has ensured rents, like purchase prices, have continued to increase.
Climate
The impact of the Greens has, somewhat predictably, been more obvious here. Their manifesto committed them to pursuing a 7 per cent fall in emissions each year and a minimum target of 50 per cent by 2030. The 7 per cent hasn’t happened yet, but there has been progress, and 2023 was the closest to it yet. The party championed the introduction of carbon budgets – a key mechanism for curbing emissions.
Movement on retrofitting has been significant, with 40,000 homes involved last year, but the party suggested 75,000 homes was its target. It has scored wins on public transport, even if it did not make it free for students or introduce a €365 annual pass.
Education
All three parties promised to reduce class sizes and raise capitation levels, with Fianna Fáil the most specific of the three, saying they would take pupil-teacher ratios from 26:1 in 2020 to 20:1 in 2025. They are currently at 23:1.
Fine Gael said there would be no increase in third-level fees – they have since been cut – and made significant commitments on capital and other funding which have been delivered.
Childcare
They may have been coming from a low base, but this Government has somewhat exceeded the broad thrust of commitments the parties made with regard to the sector five years ago, most obviously on spending and subsidies to parents.
Pensions
The inclination of older people to turn out in numbers on polling day, and disproportionately for the traditional big two, makes them a key demographic, and broadly similar commitments from them to increase the State pension by about €25 were honoured.
Tax
Fine Gael promised to take the point at which workers started to pay the higher rate of tax to €50,000. It is currently €42,000. Like Fianna Fáil, it committed to measures that would cut USC payments, and though the mechanisms adopted may have changed, there have been cuts. Fine Gael’s policy on tipping became law, while Fianna Fáil’s promise of a cut in Capital Gains Tax to 25 per cent did not. Green policies on a proposed wealth tax, flight tax and cuts to tax reliefs on larger pension pots did not happen, with the Government recently agreeing to increase the latter.
Health
Like housing, this is an area that proves a government can spend a lot more money without quite seeing the impact it had hoped for. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil committed to greatly increasing budgets – the Greens too, although the relevant section in their manifesto did not contain a single number – and staff numbers. That is what happened.
Health, of course, has a way of making governments exceed even their own promises. Fine Gael, for instance, promised 5,000 additional nurses, and about 9,000 more have been hired. As a proportion of wider Government spending, however, it has remained largely static.
Other matters
Not every commitment costs big money. In 2020, the Greens said they would explore the elimination of homework in primary schools. Almost five years on, that exploration seems to have gone reasonably well for they are not committing to actually phasing it out.
Other commitments have been quietly shelved with no mention this time around – for instance, Fianna Fáil’s proposed pothole reporting app.
There’s still time to tackle your local candidates on that one.
Promises, promises: How do the parties compare in 2024?
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