Election 2024

Housing and homelessness biggest issue for voters, exit poll shows

Election 2024: Economic stability (9%), climate change (4%), crime (2%), local transport and roads (2%) and childcare (2%) all played lesser roles

Election 2024: Ballot papers are counted at the RDS in Dublin. The exit poll shows the housing issue was more prominent among younger voters, with 42 per cent of those under 34 nominating it as the most important issue. Photograph: Ben Stansall/Getty Images
Election 2024: Ballot papers are counted at the RDS in Dublin. The exit poll shows the housing issue was more prominent among younger voters, with 42 per cent of those under 34 nominating it as the most important issue. Photograph: Ben Stansall/Getty Images
Colin Gleeson
Sat Nov 30 2024 - 19:06

The most important issue for voters in Friday’s general election was housing and homelessness, according to the Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll.

The issue was the clear leader on 28 per cent, followed by the cost of living on 19 per cent and health on 17 per cent.

Economic stability (9 per cent), climate change (4 per cent), crime (2 per cent), local transport and roads (2 per cent) and childcare (2 per cent), all played lesser roles.

Immigration – which had been prominent in the list of issues of public concern for much of the year – played a minor role, nominated by just 6 per cent.

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The housing issue was more prominent among younger voters, with 42 per cent of those under 34 nominating it as the most important issue.

More than half (52 per cent) of voters said their standard of living has stayed the same over the past 12 months, while 35 per cent said it has worsened and 13 per cent said it has improved.

Those who voted for Sinn Féin (49 per cent), People Before Profit (49 per cent) and Aontú (41 per cent) were much more likely to say their standard of living had worsened.

The poll also asked respondents about their second preferences on the ballot paper. The results suggest that expectations of a strong transfer between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be borne out – a factor that should help the two parties boost their seat numbers.

[ Almost half of voters favour a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael led coalition, according to exit poll ]

Supporters of both parties transferred at higher rates to running mates from the same party. For Fine Gael voters, it was at a rate of 37 per cent to other Fine Gael candidates. Fianna Fáil candidates were the second preference choice of 39 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters.

Among Fine Gael voters, 32 per cent said their second preference votes went to Fianna Fáil, while 30 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters said they transferred to Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin voters transferred at a rate of 48 per cent to second candidates from the same party. The next highest second preference votes from Sinn Féin supporters was to Independents.

The highest second preference transfer rates between arch-rivals Labour and the Social Democrats were to each other. According to the exit poll some 22 per cent of second preferences from Labour voters went to the Social Democrats.

Second preferences from Social Democrats supporters went to Labour at a rate of 23 per cent.

Almost half of voters in Friday’s general election said they favour a coalition government based on the combination of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Nearly a third of voters (31 per cent) said they would prefer a coalition of just Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil; a further 9 per cent preferred a government of those two parties plus Independents; while a further 9 per cent said they would like to see a government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and one or more smaller parties.

Combined, this is a total of 49 per cent of voters in the exit poll who want to see a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-led government.

[ Majority of Independent voters would have backed candidate even if they were in a political party - exit poll ]

The next most popular choice was a government led by Sinn Féin without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, which was chosen by 22 per cent. Another 7 per cent said they wanted to see a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition (including just 9 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters), while 21 per cent said they wanted to see “something else”.

The most popular choice for taoiseach was Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, who was the preferred choice of 35 per cent. He pipped Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who was on 34 per cent, while Fine Gael leader Simon Harris was on 27 per cent. Just 5 per cent gave no response.

On climate change, a slim majority of voters said the current Government did not go far enough in tackling the issue – significantly more than those who believe it has gone too far.

Just under a third of Irish voters – 29 per cent – said the Coalition’s actions were “about right”, while 20 per cent said it had gone too far.

The poll, which is a joint project of The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4 and the Political Science Department of Trinity College Dublin, was conducted by Ipsos B&A among 5,018 voters as they left 253 polling stations across all 43 constituencies on Friday.

Colin Gleeson

Colin Gleeson

Colin Gleeson is an Irish Times reporter