Majorities of voters in both Northern Ireland and the Republic think that it is important to plan for the possibility of Irish unity, according to the latest polls for a major research project in both jurisdictions.
Almost two-thirds of voters in the South think that it is somewhat or extremely important to plan for a possible united Ireland – with more than a third (36 per cent) saying it is extremely important.
In the North, 60 per cent of all voters say that it is somewhat or extremely important to plan for the possibility of unity, while 36 per cent say that it is extremely important.
Unionist voters in the North are able to distinguish between a desire for unity and what they see as the advisability of preparing for the possibility.
Few unionists want to see Irish unity come about. However, almost four in 10 (38 per cent) voters in the North from a Protestant background said that it was important that there is preparation for the possibility of a united Ireland.
Even among voters from a Catholic background in the North, there is a difference between those who see achieving Irish unity as extremely important (30 per cent), and those who say the planning for the possibility is extremely important (53 per cent).
Previous research for the North and South series suggested that voters found the experience of Brexit – where the vote to leave the EU was taken before anyone really knew what it meant – instructive and are keen to avoid such pitfalls in the event of a unity vote in Ireland.
This year’s findings also suggest that there are two attitudes among the pro-unity lobby in both Northern Ireland and the Republic. A group, described by academic researchers as “gung-ho” for unity, who want to see a referendum as soon as possible and are less concerned about planning, and a group who are more cautious about the prospect of unity and want to spend time preparing for a later referendum.
The findings are part of the North and South research project for which two simultaneous opinion polls were conducted each year for the past three years. Each poll was conducted by Ipsos – Ipsos Northern Ireland in the North and Ipsos B&A in the South – and surveyed more than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions.
In addition, two deliberative forums were held this year, one in each jurisdiction, to allow selected participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. The surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.
The North and South project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and the Arins Project. Arins – Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South – is itself a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The Arins/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.
Last week, The Irish Times reported the first findings of this year’s surveys which found that while Northern Ireland would vote decisively against a united Ireland, the margin between the pro-unity and pro-UK sides has declined sharply in the last three years.
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