More than a quarter of voters from a Protestant background in Northern Ireland would absolutely “hate it” if a referendum on Irish unity was passed, according to the latest poll examining attitudes to the issue.
Asked what would be their emotional response to a referendum which voted for unity, 27 per cent of Protestant voters in the North said they would hate it “extremely” or very much.
A further 27 per cent say they would hate it a little or somewhat.
Almost as many (24 per cent) say they would also feel very or extremely “resentful” and “fearful”, while 21 per cent say that they would feel very or extremely angry if the result went against them.
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The results underline the difficulty that many voters from a Protestant or unionist background may have in accepting a pro-unity result in any future referendum – though the polls show a significant, if declining, majority for preserving the union at present.
While the poll shows that “losers’ consent” among unionists – the willingness to accept a result that they do not like – has increased since the first survey in this series in 2022, today’s findings make clear the extremely negative emotional reaction that many from a Protestant background would have to a united Ireland vote.
Many Catholics in Northern Ireland and voters in the Republic, by contrast, expect to feel pride, delight and relief if the referendums resulted in a vote for a united Ireland.
More than four-in-10 of all voters (43 per cent) in the Republic say they would feel very or extremely proud if a unity referendum were to be passed, with 40 per cent saying they would be extremely or very delighted.
Among people from a Catholic background in Northern Ireland, 48 per cent would be very or extremely proud and 45 per cent would be very or extremely delighted.
The findings are part of the North and South research project for which two simultaneous opinion polls have been conducted each year for the past three years.
Each poll was conducted by Ipsos – Ipsos Northern Ireland in the North and Ipsos B&A in the South – and surveyed over 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions.
In addition this year, two deliberative forums have been held, one in each jurisdiction, in order to allow selected participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. The surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.
The North and South project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and the Arins Project. Arins – Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South – is itself a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The Arins/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.
Last week, The Irish Times reported the first findings of this year’s surveys which found that while Northern Ireland would vote decisively against joining a united Ireland, the margin between the pro-unity and pro-UK sides has declined sharply in the last three years.
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