PoliticsAnalysis

When it comes to personal feelings about unification, who are the Protestant ‘ultras’?

Most identify as British and would find Irish unity ‘almost impossible to accept’

The war memorial and Union Flag in Banbridge, Co Down. Photograph: Bryan O’Brien
The war memorial and Union Flag in Banbridge, Co Down. Photograph: Bryan O’Brien
John Garry
Brendan O'Leary
Jamie Pow
Dawn Walsh
Fri Feb 14 2025 - 06:00

How do Northern Protestants expect to react emotionally in the event of Irish unification?

A clear majority do not expect to feel strong negative emotions. Just over three-fifths of them (61 per cent) do not expect to feel very or extremely strongly any of the five negative emotions – resentment, hatred, fear, anger or outrage – as offered in the Arins/Irish Times surveys.

Twenty-one per cent expect to feel very or extremely strongly one, two or three of these five negative emotions.

And just under a fifth (18 per cent) of Northern Protestants may be characterised as emotional “ultras”, to use the expression coined by Professor Richard Rose when reporting the first social science survey of Northern opinion in the late 1960s. They expect to feel very or extremely strongly all five negative emotions or four of the five.

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Who are these “ultras”?

They are disproportionately male: two-thirds of them.

Four-fifths of them are working class. They are unlikely to have a college degree and are more likely to have no educational qualifications.

They have an extremely strong sense of British identity: 85 per cent rated themselves at 10 on the 0-10 Britishness scale.

These “ultras”, unsurprisingly, tend to vote for the more hardline unionist parties: 85 per cent voted either DUP or TUV in the most recent Northern Assembly election.

So, how would this subset of Protestant “ultras” react after a pro-unification referendum result?

Our survey suggests that 69 per cent of this group would find unification “almost impossible to accept”.

So, one in eight Northern Protestants combines expecting intense negative emotional reactions with overt reluctance to regard a unification result as acceptable.

Addressing the concerns of this group is a distinct challenge for advocates of unification: their identity, skills and fears will require appropriate attention.