The prospect of invading Russian tanks “rolling into” a European Union state is no longer “unthinkable”, Ireland’s EU commissioner Michael McGrath has said.
He also warned Russia could not be allowed to win a “clear victory” in the full-scale war it started by invading Ukraine three years ago, as that would “embolden” Vladimir Putin.
In an interview with The Irish Times, Mr McGrath said Europe needed to make sure it could defend itself, in a world where the United States may no longer be a reliable ally.
“The world has changed in the last number of weeks and we have to face up to the reality that Europe has to stand on its own two feet,” he said.
That would even mean guarding against the possibility of a ground invasion by Russian forces. “The truth is that the prospect of Russian tanks rolling into an EU member state is no longer unthinkable,” Mr McGrath said.
Three months into his new role in the European Commission, the powerful EU body that proposes laws, the former Fianna Fáil finance minister is still getting to grips with a brief that spans justice, the rule of law, tech regulation and consumer protection.
“I’m thoroughly enjoying it. It is intense and there has been and continues to be a lot to learn,” he said.
The start of his five-year term as one of 26 EU commissioners sitting around the table with commission president Ursula von der Leyen - whom he describes as being more personable than she is often perceived to be from afar – has been defined by defence, US president Donald Trump and the Ukraine war.
There has been a recognition in most EU capitals that they will have to spend a lot more, to arm their militaries to deter a possible threat from Russia. Those in the east, such as Poland and the Baltic and Nordic states, are particularly nervous.
Mr McGrath, who took office at the end of last year, said Ireland’s geography as a small island on the western edge of Europe was no “guarantee” of safety from aggression.
“The nature of modern warfare and the nature of weaponry has just changed exponentially in recent times. So we have the comfort of distance, but in military terms that comfort doesn’t amount to much,” he said.
Mr McGrath was speaking as the EU’s 27 national leaders agreed to back a major defence plan, to make it easier for member states to invest in their militaries. It is hoped the plan will lead to a surge of hundreds of billions of euro in defence spending.
After years of talking about the problem, the push to get European states to spend more on their defence has now picked up pace. Minds have been focused by Trump retreating from the transatlantic partnership that Europe has long enjoyed with the US.
“It is a very serious situation. We have seen a dramatic shift in US foreign policy and that has created an enormous challenge for Europe,” Mr McGrath said.
Can Europe defend itself without the United States?
The EU needed to continue to work with the US administration, to “reaffirm” how important ties between Europe and the US were for global stability, he said.
The biggest concern in EU capitals is that Mr Trump wants to push for a quick settlement to end the Ukraine war, on terms that may favour Moscow, rather than Kyiv.
“We have to face up to the prospect that in the event of a clear Russian victory in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will be emboldened and who is to say that he will stop there. We have to be in a position to defend ourselves,” Mr McGrath said.
One of the first big pieces of EU legislation Mr McGrath has been tasked with shepherding is one that aims to regulate online influencers and address the issue of the addictive design of social media apps.
The Digital Fairness Act, which the commission is to introduce in the middle of next year, will regulate the world of online influencers. It will mainly make sure they flag when they have been paid to promote something.
“There’s nothing wrong with social media influencers doing their thing, and they certainly have a lot of influence. But I think it’s important that the user is informed of the fact that there’s a commercial transaction underpinning the influencing that’s taking place,” Mr McGrath said.
The EU legislation will also try to tackle the addictive nature of some social media platforms, and how they are designed to keep people scrolling endlessly. The reforms may heighten already strained tensions between the Brussels-based European Commission and US tech and social media giants.
Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X - formerly Twitter - and now close adviser to Mr Trump, has frequently railed against existing EU rules that obligate platforms to remove harmful and illegal online content.
Meanwhile, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has also criticised the regulations, which give the EU powers to hit online platforms with hefty fines.
Mr Trump has made it clear these EU efforts to put some guardrails on the online sphere are in his crosshairs.
There was no suggestion the commission was considering any “backtracking” on the digital regulations, Mr McGrath said. The measures did not target US companies, but applied to all large online platforms, he added.
Mr McGrath will travel to Hungary in two weeks. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s far-right government there will be one of the other big headaches the commissioner faces during his term.
Over a decade and a half in power, Mr Orban has overseen a crackdown on civil society organisations, political opposition and independent media. He has eroded the rights of vulnerable groups such as migrants and the LGBT+ community.
As commissioner for the rule of law, it falls to Mr McGrath to pull Hungary up for all this.
The visit to Budapest will be an opportunity to meet figures in the Hungarian government and civil society groups, “to get a feel for the situation on the ground”, he said.
The commission has already put €20 billion in EU funds owed to Hungary on ice, due to serious concerns about the government disregarding the rule of law. “My door remains open if they wish to make progress on the issues that have caused real concern,” Mr McGrath said.
[ Ireland to join case against Hungary’s civil society crackdownOpens in new window ]
One of the most important relationships for any commissioner is their rapport with Dr von der Leyen. The commission president has centralised much of the power in the Berlaymont building in Brussels around herself.
“I found her to be very personable, and perhaps different to the perception that many people would have,” Mr McGrath said. The centre-right German politician was “very good to work with and always keen to listen”, he said.
If Dr von der Leyen views a commissioner as both competent and someone who can be trusted not to go on solo runs, they can often pick up a lot of extra responsibilities as time goes on.
Among the current crop of commissioners, Mr McGrath is seen as potentially well placed to pass both of those tests down the line, if he plays his cards right.
“Three months in, you know, I’ve learned a huge amount, and I look forward to the period ahead,” he said.
