The latest Irish Times poll provides plenty for Government and the Opposition to ponder over the Dáil’s summer break.
Just 14 per cent of voters feel the Government is making progress in tackling the problems facing the country, a disappointing result for members of the Coalition. Voters are more likely to hold the belief that either progress has stalled (30 per cent) or the situation has got worse (53 per cent).
This latest poll did not ask respondents to list the challenges Ireland faces, but previous polls have identified housing, immigration, access to healthcare and the cost of living as the critical issues.
Despite just 14 per cent reckoning that progress is being made, 36 per cent of voters are satisfied with how the Government is running the country.
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For some voters, expecting the Government to effect positive change is, it seems, expecting too much. This is especially true for Fine Gael voters, who are generally satisfied with the Government’s performance (66 per cent) while remaining unconvinced that progress is being made in tackling the problems facing the country (19 per cent).
Fianna Fáil voters are somewhat content that progress is being made (38 per cent) and the party will go into the summer recess as the most popular party in Ireland (on 22 per cent, no change), a title shared on this occasion with Sinn Féin (22 per cent, down 4 points).
Fine Gael (on 17 per cent, up 1 point), Labour (4 per cent, down 1 point) and the Green Party (3 per cent, no change) are all polling below trend.
The Social Democrats are on 6 per cent (down 1 point), as are People Before Profit-Solidarity (2 per cent, down 1 point).
Independent candidates, as a collective, are on 20 per cent (up 4 points).
Interviewing for today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week, among a national sample of 1,200 eligible voters. Interviews were conducted in-home, across 120 sampling points, with every constituency represented.
Since being elected to Government, Fianna Fáil has managed to maintain its vote share at 22 per cent, underpinned by a loyal base of older voters (39 per cent share among the over 65’s). The party faithful are also fully behind Micheál Martin – 90 per cent are satisfied with his performance as Taoiseach – and most (74 per cent) are satisfied with how the Government is running the country.
Fine Gael will use the summer break to contemplate how to broaden the party’s appeal. Support, at 17 per cent, is close to a historic low and heavily dependent on older and middle-class voters.
Satisfaction with Simon Harris in this latest poll is at 38 per cent (down 4 points), mirroring his first poll rating as party leader, measured in May of last year.
Sinn Féin, on 22 per cent, continues to dominate among younger voters. Among the under-35s, Sinn Féin attracts one-third (33 per cent) of the vote, more than Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined (27 per cent).
Less positive for Sinn Féin is a drop of four points since our April poll; still in advance of its election performance of 19 per cent last November, but a far cry from the 36 per cent it registered in July 2022.
While Sinn Féin has been on the way down, Independent candidates (up eight points to 20 per cent) have been on the rise: voters in households where the main earner is employed in a “blue-collar” job are now as likely to vote for an Independent candidate (27 per cent) as they are to vote for Sinn Féin (27 per cent).
Is Mary Lou McDonald about to enter the presidential race?
Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership of the party is at 36 per cent (down one point).
The past three years have also been marked by a move for the Social Democrats, jumping from 2 per cent to 6 per cent nationally and peaking at 11 per cent among the professional classes (ABs); likely taking some votes from Fine Gael and the Greens, who typically over-index among high-income voters.
Not making any positive moves are the Labour Party (4 per cent) or the Greens (3 per cent). Dublin has been a happy hunting ground for both parties in recent years; however, competition in the capital has intensified with the arrival of the Social Democrats, who now enjoy 11 per cent support in the capital.
A presidential election is an opportunity to build momentum, which all parties appear to be lacking to a greater or lesser extent, according to this latest poll.
Fine Gael has their presidential candidate in Mairead McGuinness and the Social Democrats have rowed in behind Catherine Connolly. More announcements will follow, no doubt.
Politicians may not be diving into swimming pools this summer, but they will be searching for a springboard.
- Damian Loscher is president of Ipsos B&A
