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How AI’s predictive capability can reduce turnover and improve hiring outcomes

Artificial intelligence allows HR teams to make more informed choices on everything from talent acquisition to employee retention strategies

AI-driven tools can recommend training opportunities or career paths based on an employee’s strengths and aspirations, contributing to better engagement and long-term growth. Photograph: Getty Images
AI-driven tools can recommend training opportunities or career paths based on an employee’s strengths and aspirations, contributing to better engagement and long-term growth. Photograph: Getty Images

Human resources professionals have been utilising technology for a long time to speed up and automate routine tasks and they are now turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to uncover insights to guide strategic decision making.

“HR analytics has been around for quite a while,” says Prof Joe Peppard, academic director at UCD Smurfit Executive Development. “It’s used for transforming and translating workforce data into insights, and enables organisations to make data-driven workforce decisions. Organisations use data analytics to look at employee performance, engagement, recruitment, retention and so on. AI has been getting a lot of attention, but companies have been using machine learning for many years to identify patterns in data to uncover insights they can act upon.”

Where AI is coming into its own is in supporting decisions in areas such as recruitment processes.

“If an organisation is looking to fill a role, they typically get lots of CVs,” says Peppard. “In the days before technology, people had to sift through them to create longlists and shortlists. Now, they are creating algorithms based on insights from data to look for factors that make individuals suited to a role and to create the shortlist in a fraction of the time a human could.”

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But there are risks. “This gets into the whole area of explainable AI,” he adds. “You need to be able to explain why someone wasn’t included in the shortlist.”

While AI has the potential to transform HR by automating quite complex administrative tasks, the broader implications of its integration go beyond mere efficiency gains, says Trayc Keevans, global FDI director at Morgan McKinley.

“One area where AI is particularly impactful is in enhancing decision making,” she points out. “By analysing vast amounts of data, AI can identify patterns that might otherwise be overlooked, allowing HR teams to make more informed choices on everything from talent acquisition to employee retention strategies. This predictive capability can significantly reduce turnover and improve hiring outcomes, offering a more data-driven approach to people management.”

It can also support employee retention. “The use of AI in HR opens up new possibilities for personalised employee experiences,” says Keevans. “AI can assist in creating tailored development plans by analysing individual performance data and aligning it with organisational goals. For example, AI-driven tools can recommend training opportunities or career paths based on an employee’s strengths and aspirations, contributing to better engagement and long-term growth.”

Prof Joe Peppard, academic director at UCD Smurfit Executive Development
Prof Joe Peppard, academic director at UCD Smurfit Executive Development

The technology’s ability to analyse unstructured data, which is all but useless to organisations in its current form, is particularly useful, In Peppard’s view.

“Its natural language processing capabilities can be used to analyse employee feedback, for example,” he says. “You might have 8,000 employees and need to analyse their responses to open questions to gauge overall satisfaction levels. AI can do that and predict things like employee turnover and performance.”

Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) director Mary Connaughton has seen an increasing use of AI in employee engagement platforms.

“Organisations are using it to analyse employee feedback to see who is more likely to stay,” she notes. “But it’s not just an annual survey any more. It can now be nearly live, with employees asked a few questions a week, and the technology can guide managers on actions to take on foot of it. We are seeing members creating dashboards and using the insights form them to identify where the pain is in the organisation and putting that information in the hands of managers.”

Returning to the recruitment process, Keevans says AI can also help enhance workplace diversity by removing human biases: “By focusing purely on skills, experience and other measurable factors, AI can help level the playing field for candidates from diverse backgrounds, fostering a more inclusive workforce.”

Those happy outcomes shouldn’t be taken for granted, however. “Traditional organisations with a lot of white males end up with biased data and the AI algorithm trained on it reflects that,” Peppard explains. “That’s one of the problems in the AI space.” In those circumstances, the utmost care must be taken in order to screen out bias from the data.

He also warns against unethical or banned uses of the technology. These include the use of AI and machine vision to pick up non-verbal cues from job applicants during interviews. “That technology has been around for a long time but is not permitted under the EU AI Act,” says Peppard.

However, despite growing adoption, AI in HR is still in the early stages in many Irish companies, with some businesses remaining cautious about fully scaling the technology, according to Keevans.

“Concerns around bias in AI algorithms, data privacy and the potential to overlook the human element in people management are prompting a measured approach. As such, while AI is a promising tool in HR, companies are taking a balanced approach – using it to complement, rather than replace, human decision making.”

Peppard agrees: “A lot of consultants and tech companies talk about AI and GenAI as transformative, but I see it as a great intern that sits beside the HR manager and provides assistance. You are always going to need the human in the loop.”

Barry McCall

Barry McCall is a contributor to The Irish Times