The Republic of Ireland manager has been forced to make changes, but will the system allow them to make the most of their talents?

ANYTHING LESS than a win in this evening’s game would be considered a bad start. Listening to Kazakhstan’s coach at yesterday’s press conference, along with two of his players, even they seemed to accept that a home point or a win is unlikely.

But despite that veneer of a lack of confidence, they are reasons why Giovanni Trapattoni’s team should not completely dismiss the Kazakhs’ chances of an upset. At home, on their not very pleasant synthetic pitch, in a compact modern stadium, they’ve achieved some very respectable results, including a draw with Austria and beating Azerbaijan in the last Euro qualifying group.

I expect plenty of flying rusty-coloured rubber during the game, there was plenty of it loose as I walked the pitch yesterday. I know the team dealt with the pitch competently in Moscow last year but despite our three exiles from British football – Robbie Keane, Darren O’Dea and Aiden McGeady – being familiar with synthetic surfaces, Irish teams just don’t like them.

Kazakhstan’s Fifa ranking of 142nd and the fact that almost all their players are home-based, in a poor league – remember, St Pat’s beat their current league leaders, Karagandy, in the Europa League qualifiers last year – suggests that only national pride on their part and carelessness on ours will prevent an away win, regardless of Trap’s current troubles with personnel and communication.

Of course for the first game in every group there is huge desire for nations to get off to a good start. Kazakhstan are particularly proud of their seven gold medals at the Olympics and that team’s performance has put it up to the footballers in a big way.

Current trends at top level club and international football have moved towards teams with adaptable, technical players in defence, increased number of players in the midfield area, reducing the numbers of out and out strikers per team. But these generally smaller men, like at Spain and Manchester City, are brilliant technically and positionally flexible.

We don’t currently have players of top-class quality, as clearly indicated by the mid- to lower-range Premier League clubs employing our squad now – or even lower again. As a team, we’re often playing against superior opposition, who are technically better and tactically adaptable, than the rigid formation of 4-4-2, as was obvious in many of our qualification games for Poland.

Even against Armenia and Slovakia, and of course Russia, we were consistently outplayed possession-wise by teams playing more flexible formations.

The warning signs were there well before our embarrassments against Croatia, Spain and Italy.

Of course a change of formation alone may not have ensured better results against that opposition, but as a manager your responsibility is to recognise the strengths and weaknesses of your team, compared to the opposition.

In Ireland’s case, Trap was blinded by the scraped-through success of the runners-up spot in the group and a win over a very average Estonia team.

He crucially failed to recognise the changing tactics and shapes of better teams that required a new, more compact midfield plan to deal with a better class of opposition at the Euros.

The more compact version of 4-4-1-1, or 4-3-3, would certainly have led to less embarrassment in Poland, and the greater possibility of counter-attack success, which is the catalyst for most goals at top level now. But little of this should be too relevant to today’s game, even if we are back to our bog standard 4-4-2 – and that depends on how Simon Cox and Jonathan Walters are used – at least Walters is familiar with the dropping in to midfield to help out role, if required. I expect Miroslav Beranek, the Kazakhstan manager, to use a 4-5-1 formation, with midfielders getting forward when the opportunity arises. But they lack class and experience.

It’s a much changed line-up from the starting team in Poland. That’s a good thing because the new players will want to prove they should have been more involved at Euro 2012.

Kieren Westwood looked loud, composed and confident against Serbia, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has to make a few big saves this evening.

Although O’Dea and Seán St Ledger have done well individually in the past, I just don’t have great confidence in the defensive unit with Stephen Ward and John O’Shea in the full-back positions. I prefer John at centre back, now his club position, and Ward has too often been exposed as an unnatural defender.

After all Trap’s reluctance to give James McCarthy his chance, his display against Serbia, in a tame, low-tempo friendly, gave some encouragement. But competitive games are much different and more challenging.

I would expect him and Glenn Whelan to dominate possession, if trusted by our back four. I just hope they try to pass the ball in to them, even when under a little pressure, otherwise our long ball to Walters tactic could see us chasing around again, trying to retrieve the ball.

Cox’s inclusion, ahead of James McClean, is no surprise, even if it is illogical on form. He’s one of Trap’s new favourites, as we witnessed in Poland by his appearance as a starter against Spain. If required, he could be used inside in a 4-3-3, as happened against Serbia, when he swapped with McClean after 25 minutes.

Interestingly, coach Beranek name-checked McGeady (and Keane) several times at his press conference, as if Aiden’s performances in Moscow have scared them. With Duffer off the scene, for now anyway, I expect Aiden to become more prominent and important. His pace and trickery should create the chances for Robbie, Cox and Walters to get us the vital goals we need here. If Walters’s selection ahead of Doyle, and particularly the in-form Shane Long, is a surprise, I feel he’s earned his chance based on consistent performances for Stoke and Ireland when used.

Overall, if tactical conundrums are presented today this team should be able to deal with them comfortably because of the opposition’s lack of quality. If not, well then we’ll be in trouble in this group. I sent John McDonald, my assistant with the Faroes, to assess Kazakhstan. Watching them lose 4-1 away to Belgium last October his assessment was that they were keen and enthusiastic, with some big players who were dangerous at set-pieces, but he felt they were a little disorganised defensively and lacked discipline.

He finished by saying: “Brian, we could beat them at home – and have a good chance away.”

With that, I rest my case.