Wales v New Zealand:As if New Zealand being so far out in front in the world were not enough for the rapidly retreating chasing pack, their coach Graham Henry believes they will improve by up to 20 per cent next year, ready to peak for the World Cup in France.
Wales have not gone into a match against the All Blacks on such a wave of optimism since 1978 but a measure of the task facing them this evening may be gauged from statistics: since Henry took over at the beginning of 2004 New Zealand have won 31 internationals out of 35 with only South Africa, three times, and Australia defeating them. They have lost only twice on tour to a home union nation since 1993, England prevailing at Twickenham then and again in 2002. Wales's last success against them was back in 1953 while the best Ireland and Scotland have ever managed is a draw.
The All Blacks have only lost one of their last 19 Tests, to the Springboks by a point in September. They average 34 points a match under Henry and have failed to reach 20 on only four occasions.
When asked if it would be harder to remain at this level than it had been to climb there, Henry replied: "We are looking to improve, not maintain standards. The team will definitely be looking to get better next year and I hope to see an improvement of 15-20 per cent. We have upped our game since last year's grand slam tour; there is more balance and maturity in the team. We are in pretty good shape but there is more to come."
Henry has spent his time cultivating strength in depth but he has no comparable alternatives to outhalf Dan Carter, prop Carl Hayman or flanker and captain Richie McCaw, who was this week voted international player of the year by his peers, and the three have started all four Tests this month.
"I had a good break before the tour and I am excited about playing Wales," said McCaw. "There is a healthy respect between the two sets of players and after each Test we pop into each other's dressingrooms and have a beer together. That does not happen very often these days but we make sure it does with the Welsh."
New Zealand have paid tribute all week to Wales' attacking instincts but the home side will have to mix caution with enterprise today if they are to confound both history and the form book.
The two camps have exchanged views about the Welsh style of play, with Henry and his assistant Steve Hansen having experience of coaching Wales. There is a misconception that the Welsh way is about moving the ball wide quickly and often and some view the selection of Sonny Parker at inside-centre instead of Gavin Henson with dismay because they feel it is a defensive option.
But the essence of Wales teams over the years has been their ability to adapt and react, to play the game as they see it and not be enchained by prescriptive game plans. It is how New Zealand approach matches. They did not dominate at Twickenham or Lyon this month in terms of territory or possession but forced errors and capitalised on them. For all their flair, they are a physical side and Wales have to make sure they are not pushed out of the way at the breakdown or in midfield.
Wales have to get everything right but at least they are worthy opponents again.
Guardian Service
