GAELIC GAMES/Kerry v Armagh: There are so many beguiling pieces of information circling in a holding pattern over this game that the sensible thing to do would be to keep the money in the pocket and just to sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

No? Armagh first, then. After a stuttery start which brought draws against Monaghan and Fermanagh, an Ulster final win over Donegal has been sufficient to have them anointed with the dreaded Best Team in the Country balm.

It's four years since their first and last All- Ireland, however. We are three knock-out defeats further down the road. In other words, Armagh can come up short at crucial times.

Much is made of the minty-fresh nature of their half-back line. Certainly the new unit has more running in it than the old one had. But has it as much, ahem, has it as much hitting in it?

In other words (we'll excuse Ciarán McKeever from this inquiry), is it the sort of half-back line you'd be afraid to run at? And what of the vaunted full-forward line?

Armagh and Kerry have both played five games to get to Croke Park today. Kerry, whose forwards have been lying limp at death's door all summer, have outscored Armagh in terms of average per game.

Neither side have anything to swagger about in terms of offensive stats.

The balancing theory for Armagh is simple and attractive. Armagh know. When it comes to Croke Park and big days they just know. They know how to play teams. They know the season starts today.

They know what happened against Monaghan and Fermanagh means nothing. They know they have as much strength in them as Kerry have doubt.

They know that Paul McGrane has been performing excellently as befits a man toiling beside Kieran McGeeney, whom we are beginning to think is bionic.

They know that McGeeney will sweep and link the plays from defence to attack. They know that much today depends on the referee, David Coldrick. They know to play it right.

They know other things too. They know that Francie Bellew won't stand with his hand shading his eyes and his jaw dropping to the ground as he watches Kieran Donaghy put figures in brackets after his name by means of an exhibition of sky-writing.

They know that Aaron Kernan will stay with Eoin Brosnan when Brosnan is inclined to make those runs which might just finish with him patting the ball into the net.

All that knowledge should be enough for anyone. Yet we have doubts. We are plagued by them.

Maybe Kerry know, too, that the season starts here.

Maybe they know that Tomás Ó Sé can't be as bad again as he was against Longford; that Séamus Moynihan has one last, great day in him; that this game will be definitive in how they are remembered as a team.

They know that today's winners won't just have momentum - they'll have what American election pollsters like to call Big Mo. Kerry love that.

They know what they will do for a full forward. There are so many whispers about Donaghy not starting there after all that Bellew may feel like a man going on a blind date this afternoon.

Maybe the Gooch and Mike Frank (Russell) will be left with an acre to patrol and Kerry will crowd the midfield. Maybe then the more muscular Seán O'Sullivan will move inside.

We fancy Kerry to play it straight, though. Maybe they've looked at the footage of Tom Brewster hauling down a high one and turning and sticking it back when Fermanagh drew with Armagh. Donaghy at worst will be a diversion to allow The Gooch to go to work.

We know these things also: Croke Park is Kerry's old prairie home. It's bred in the bone that they perform there. Armagh are Kerry's greatest motivational device. Nothing would be more perfect than to devour a plate of ripe orange today.

Plus, The Gooch is on an upward spiral. Eoin Brosnan's self-belief should be swelled in the way that only three goals can engorge a man's confidence.

O'Sullivan is a good pick and there are options on the Kerry bench. We know also that Kerry haven't lost a quarter-final since quarter-finals were invented in 2001. They've been semi-finalists every year.

So what's the skinny? The lowdown? The inside track? We'd be fooling you if we handed down a verdict laden with any certainty.

Armagh to squeak it, but no refunds if it goes the other way.

KERRY: D Murphy; M Ó Sé, M McCarthy, T O'Sullivan; T Ó Sé, S Moynihan, A O'Mahony, D Ó Sé, T Griffin; S O'Sullivan, E Brosnan, P Galvin; C Cooper, K Donaghy, MF Russell.

ARMAGH: P Hearty; A Mallon, F Bellew, E McNulty; A Kernan, C McKeever, P Duffy; K McGeeney, P McGrane; M O'Rourke, J McEntee, M Makin; S McDonnell, R Clarke, O McConville.