I find myself in an unfamiliar position today as I've never tipped anything other than a Kerry victory. I can't remember a time when they arrived at this stage of the championship as outsiders.

Yet, on merit alone, I must be true to the evidence in front of us all.

Expect a dour, uncompromising struggle this afternoon. Don't switch on the television or travel to Croke Park expecting a classic high-scoring game of football. Here are two teams fighting for position among the greats of Gaelic football.

The 2002 final will not be a factor for Kerry as after defeat to Cork both management and players would only be interested in rebuilding confidence and morale. In that respect, the Longford game came at the right time. But was it too easy a test? Eoin Brosnan won't get the freedom to pick up passes on the run - although rediscovering the goalscoring touch against Longford was a huge boost to his ailing confidence.

I'm also not impressed by the many comparisons of Kieran Donaghy to Bomber Liston. Kieran did very well the last day but a lot of the ball he won was uncontested. Francie Bellew is a new ball game. He will have to earn every scrap of possession but if a supply line is opened from midfield he can still create plenty of problems.

The most important aspect of Donaghy's switch to full forward is the benefit to the other five forwards. Colm Cooper can now feed off the break, whereas previously he was the primary target man. Until Donaghy's arrival the forward dynamic was terribly out of sorts but expectations appear exorbitantly high for a player making his first start in Croke Park.

The Kerry backs' failings is a major concern. Marc Ó Sé aside, nobody has performed well to date, with Tomás Ó Sé and Mike McCarthy some way off the standards set in 2005.

Just like the Donaghy versus Bellew duel, McCarthy needs to tame the influence of Ronan Clarke. I think Marc Ó Sé can perform a reasonable containment job on Steven McDonnell but Clarke's classic full-forward performance in the Ulster final is a major concern.

The form of Séamus Moynihan must also dramatically improve. Paul Barden was simply too quick for Moynihan but John McEntee will not run at him as frequently and this should allow him hold the middle.

In midfield, whoever mops up the majority of breaking ball will win the match. Darragh Ó Sé and Paul McGrane should cancel each other out, while Tommy Griffin has a great opportunity to establish himself on a national stage against Kieran McGeeney.

McGeeney has a clever football mind and will prove difficult to isolate with so much activity around the middle. He almost plays as a second centre back.

Doubts about Kerry's hunger became evident with 15 minutes remaining in the Munster final replay. Jack O'Connor had introduced three replacements and the game hung in the balance but the effort dried up. Whether it was lack of fitness or lack of spirit, I can't be sure.

Armagh will ask the same questions entering the final stages today. The intensity will rise, as it always does when Armagh play, as Joe Kernan's team grind it out to the bitter end. I'd be surprised if 30 players remain on the field. Armagh's mental and physical toughness is a product of all the close finishes they have become entangled in down through the years. Invariably, with the obvious exception of last year's All-Ireland semi-final, they have come out the winning team.

They exuded a freshness in accounting for a decent Donegal team in the Ulster final and seem to be peaking at the right time after some ropey opening encounters with Fermanagh and Monaghan.

Armagh have gone to the well so many times that eventually their older players will be exposed. I just can't see this happening on Saturday. A young half-back line that has rejuvenated the team's style counters this.

In the other quarter-final I expect Cork to edge out an athletic Donegal team, so long as they address the over-reliance on James Masters.

Cork try to get Masters on the final ball of nearly every attacking move. Donegal have already hindered the influence of Derry's main scoring threat Paddy Bradley by employing Barry Dunnion as a sweeper in front of the full-back line.

The loss of Graham Canty is a massive blow to Cork but Derek Kavanagh's return to defence has given the impressive under-21 forward David Niblock an opportunity to shine. Cork's renewed spirit and organisation should be enough to see the Munster champions into the last four.