Munster SHC first round: The qualifier series arrives just in time for this fixture. The counties' fifth meeting in four years hasn't whipped up the same levels of fervour as in the recent past and it is as well for public interest levels that whoever loses will be able to re-enter competitive action next month.

Viewed dispassionately, Clare's graph has been inexorably downwards since their last All-Ireland success in 1997. Tipperary's has been correspondingly upward so the outcome of tomorrow's match should be straightforwardly predictable.

But it's not.

Here's why.

Clare's poor form is based on the league, which is not a reliable arbiter as Limerick proved spectacularly last year. Having had a terrible conclusion to their campaign - including a hiding from Clare - Eamonn Cregan's team went on to have the county's best championship in five years.

Although Cyril Lyons takes the NHL more seriously than his predecessor, failure in March and April is still no reason to write off a championship challenge.

A recent challenge against Galway was played behind closed doors. Now challenges behind closed doors are the equivalent of private polls during elections. Given that information about them has to be leaked, you can never be entirely sure whether you're getting fact or spin.

But, for what it's worth, indications are that Clare were impressive, even if the opposition was under-strength A year ago Clare gave Tipperary their hardest match and, despite widespread malfunction in attack, lost by only a point amidst complaints about Dickie Murphy's refereeing in calling a foul on Colin Lynch and playing inadequate injury-time.

It wouldn't take too much improvement to overturn that margin.

Of course, Tipperary haven't stood still in the meantime. Being All-Ireland champions will lend a composure and confidence to the team that wasn't altogether evident in last year's tense exchanges. On the basis of a simple rematch, logic would indicate that the champions should win.

But Nicky English's team is five short of the team that won the All-Ireland. Declan Ryan has retired and the league hasn't thrown up an obvious successor at full forward. John O'Brien who plays tomorrow looks the best long-term bet if only for the reason that he hasn't shown a tendency towards the bewildering inconsistency that haunts Eugene O'Neill who is named in the corner but whose best position is probably full forward.

Whatever about retirement, injuries have hounded English. If, by way of consolation, he was tempted to recall that, of the injured, neither Mark O'Leary nor Eddie Enright had a brilliant afternoon in the fixture last year, the Tipperary manager would also have to concede that Paul Ormonde at corner back is a significant loss and that John Carroll's abrasive qualities will be missed in a match like this.

We can't be certain that Clare have improved on last year but there is certainly plenty of scope.

Tipp captain Tommy Dunne is picked at centre forward, which is very much taking the fight to Clare for whom Seán McMahon was Man of the Match last year. The trouble with such a deployment is that Dunne gave an excellent display at centrefield where tomorrow's pairing of Conor Gleeson and Noel Morris is at best untested.

There is a key consideration in this match. As a rule teams don't come back - reversing an established trend of decline - and challenge for All-Irelands five years after their previous title while still depending on the same core players. There is a chance that Clare have nothing left to give at this level.

But this match is a one-off between worthy All-Ireland champions who have been significantly weakened by misfortune and formidable opponents who have particularly strong motivation.

Clare's players have noticed the evaporating support levels within the county. Although you can never be sure about such things, time is running out for the survivors of 1995 and that is a strong motivation.

Are Tipperary substantially weakened by the injuries? Yes. Is there the usual question mark over champions' ability to be as driven as they were last year? Yes. Are Clare capable of exploiting this? Yes. Are Tipp bad value at 7 to 4 on? Yes. Might they lose? Yes.

CLARE: D Fitzgerald; B Quinn, B Lohan (captain), F Lohan; D Hoey, S McMahon, J Reddan; C Lynch, G Quinn; T Griffin, J O'Connor, A Markham; N Gilligan, T Carmody, D Forde.

TIPPERARY: B Cummins; T Costello, P Maher, D Fahey; E Corcoran, D Kennedy, P Kelly; C Gleeson, N Morris; B O'Meara, T Dunne (capt.), L Corbett; E Kelly, J O'Brien, E O'Neill.