Irish medal hopes suffer blow as money helps decide Los Angeles Olympics 2028 programme

In the end, like most Olympic matters, it may well come down to numbers, medals and money. Mainly the money part.

If the imminent decision to add five new sports to the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles caught some people by surprise — cricket, baseball/softball, lacrosse and squash, and flag football (a five-on-five non-contact variant of American football) — consider first the numbers and medals.

All five are set to be ratified at the International Olympic Committee (IOC) session in Mumbai beginning on Sunday, and the fact four of the five are team sports reflects the IOC’s desire to further broaden the Olympic appeal, and potential to broaden medal-winning nations too.

The IOC have made no secret of their conflict with the International Boxing Association, primarily over judging and financial irregularities

On the money front, LA already has history here. When it first hosted the Olympics in 1932, it was the first Games to turn a substantial profit, about $1 million, also attracting a then-record crowd of 100,000 people at the opening ceremony. Its second hosting, in 1984, turned a profit of $223 million.

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But the proposed programme for Los Angeles has created fresh uncertainty about the future of Olympic boxing beyond Paris next summer. In part to allow for the five new sports in LA, four others have dropped off the list compared to the Paris programme; boxing, weightlifting, modern pentathlon, and breaking (otherwise known as break dancing, set to make its debut in Paris, but not making the cut for 2028).

The IOC have made no secret of their conflict with the International Boxing Association, primarily over judging and financial irregularities, and while it will once again organise the boxing programme in Paris next summer, like it did in Tokyo, it remains unclear if or how the sport will fit into the LA28 programme.

Beginning with John McNally’s silver in 1952, Ireland has won 18 of its overall 35 Olympic medals in boxing, including gold for Kellie Harrington and bronze for Aidan Walsh in Tokyo, with Harrington set to defend that title in Paris.

The absence of boxing from LA28 would represent a double blow to future Irish Olympic hopes, Paris also marking the last time there will be lightweight rowing at the Games, that deal already a fait accompli.

Paul O’Donovan won silver in the lightweight double sculls with his brother Gary in Rio 2016, then gold with Fintan McCarthy in Tokyo. They’re favourites to win gold again in Paris.

The addition of cricket, baseball/softball, flag football, lacrosse and squash will also increase the LA28 programme to 33 sports, one more than next year’s Paris programme

It is also expected that open-water coastal rowing will make its Olympic debut in LA, in place of the lightweight races, in part to help increase the medal spread in that sport. There are, however, already positive developments on that front with Irish rowers winning four medals, including three golds, at the World Coastal Championships in Barletta, Italy, only last weekend.

The addition of cricket, baseball/softball, flag football, lacrosse and squash will also increase the LA28 programme to 33 sports, one more than next year’s Paris programme (which has an overall athlete quota of 10,500). The IOC, meanwhile, is continually looking to keep that quota down. In athletics, for Paris, there’s already a slightly reduced athlete quota compared to Tokyo, down from 1,900 to 1,810.

Again, it’s mainly the money part. According to a report in the Guardian, the inclusion of cricket was agreed in part due to the IOC’s wish to gain a stronger foothold in the Indian television market. The current Olympic broadcast rights there are reported to be worth just €17.3 million for Paris 2024, a figure which would rise to as much as €174 million, depending on the format and number of matches involving India.

Although American Football isn’t played much globally, it’s also big business for NBC. And NBC is big business for the Olympics.