European Challenge Cup, Second Round, Second legWith a 53-point lead going into the second leg of their European Challenge Cup second round match away to Montpellier this evening, Connacht don't so much have one foot in the quarter-finals as everything but their fingernails.
That, however, hasn't stopped Michael Bradley bucking conventional wisdom in such scenarios and picking virtually an unchanged, full-strength team once again.
Despite next week's Celtic League trip to Glasgow and successive derbies against Ulster and Munster over the festive period, Bradley has resisted the obvious opportunities to rotate his team.
Pieter Myburgh's return to the second row in place of Christian Short, who moves to the bench, constitutes the only change from the team which routed their hosts tonight by 56-3 at the Sportsground last weekend.
"We wanted to let them know we were taking this (game) very seriously," explained Bradley. "We didn't want to give them any sniff at all. You see if we made seven changes, which would probably have been the normal thing to do, then they would have said 'they've sent over half a side, let's try and regain a bit of pride here'. So we gave them our team early, so they knew we were playing the same side."
That's the thing about Bradley, he never stops thinking. There's a certain logic to it as well in that Bradley utilised all seven of his replacements, all bar one well before the end, and will be liable to do so again tonight at an even earlier juncture.
Montpellier seem unsure of their response judging by their hesitation in picking their team. But no less than Bourgoin, when they entertain Leinster tonight, you can never be sure of how a French side will approach an apparently fruitless exercise, all the more so at home.
Montpellier will undoubtedly be mindful of their impending trip to highly-placed Castres next week and, as they showed in beating Biarritz 18-7 two weeks ago at the Stade Sabathè, are a different proposition at home.
"We've had three wins back to back and we'll be going into the Celtic League next week, so we've a good rhythm and a good feeling in the squad and we'll be trying to keep that going," said Bradley.
"We'll stick to the game plan we're trying to play and it's quite detailed in what we're trying to achieve, particularly in the first-half so that will be a challenge, to stick to that game plan. It takes the focus away from winning and losing, and instead is more on the performance."
As a further statement of their intent, Connacht travelled over on Wednesday evening. The retention of Eric Elwood for only his fourth start of the season, is largely explained by injuries to outside centres Darren Yapp and Mark McHugh, who are sidelined along with Dave Slemen, Mike Cartoll, Henry Bourke, Paul Neville up front as well as Tom Tierney, who returns to action with Garryowen this weekend after being sidelined since September with a calf injury. Furthermore, Niall O'Brien has been with the Irish Sevens squad in Dubai.
Not that the switch to outside centre has dimmed Paul Warwick's richly prolific vein of form, his haul of 26 points last week giving him a total of 58 after playing in just two European Challenge Cup outings.
Indeed, it says much for Connacht's greater strength in depth that, where before injuries to the likes of McHugh and Yapp would have left them seriously short of midfield strength, even when stretched they produced the performance of Bradley's tenure last Saturday.
Montpellier, currently 10th in the French top 16, were at full strength to begin with and both possession and territory were more or less equally shared between the two sides.
"We were just very, very sharp. We created three tries, and four were down to the bounce of the ball, but if you're that sharp on the pitch you'll get them all the time. We hardly missed a tackle in the entire match. That was as good as I've seen from any side."
Dean Richards' Grenoble appear to lie in wait in the second round given they take a 15-point lead into their second leg against Beziers this evening, although Bradley has learnt that Beziers picked an under-strength team last week whereas this week they have picked a full-strength line-up.
Connacht, who were the first Irish side to win on French soil when beating Begles Bordeaux seven years ago under Warren Gatland en route to the quarter-finals of this competition, have a 15-15 win-loss record against Gallic opposition going into this match.
CONNACHT: M Mostyn; T Robinson, P Warwick, J Downey, C McPhillips; E Elwood, C Keane; R Hogan, B Jackman, S Knoop, P Myburgh, A Farley, M Swift, J O'Sullivan, J Muldoon.
Replacements: J Fogarty, D McFarland, P Bracken, C Short, B O'Connor, C O'Loughlin, M Walls.
Referee: Carlo Damasco (Italy).
Formguide: Montpellier - 1st rd: 51-7 (a) v Rovigo; 59-3 (h) v Rovigo. 2nd Rd: 3-56 v Connacht. Connacht 1st Rd: 11-25 (a) v Narbonne; 40-21 v Narbonne (h). 2nd Rd: 56-3 v Montpellier.
Leading try scorers: Montpellier - Olivier Diomande, Murphy Taele, Julien Thomas three each. Connacht - Conor McPhillips, Paul Warwick three each.
Leading points scorers: Montpellier - Diomande, Taele, Thomas 15 each. Connacht - Warwick 58.
Forecast: Connacht to win.
