South Africa v Ireland: So here Ireland stand then, on the threshold of a major breakthrough. After four years or so of generally steady improvement, in effect Ireland find themselves knocking on the door of the top five against its most vulnerable member. It's such a natural next step that it almost seems pre-ordained.
The elite quintet have long since seemed like a closed shop, but so much has changed since Nick Mallet's record-breaking Springboks beat Ireland four years ago in Lansdowne Road 28-18, never mind the incomparable tour here six years ago, which culminated in a commanding and routine 2-0 series win for the home side.
One of the most striking differences is the vastly greater respect afforded the Irish squad. Players like Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell are now world-renowned figures. Six years ago, Irish names were scarcely spelt correctly. This time they've been photographed and their opinions regularly sought and reported.
Much of the phoney war has focused on Ireland's supposed status as favourites, which Eddie O'Sullivan has played down as pretty much irrelevant, and the Boks as underdogs, which Jake White yesterday again accepted, albeit reluctantly.
Not that the bookies have it that way, and nor will it cut much ice with the Boks or their public come the kick-off (3 p.m. local time, 2 p.m. Irish).
It is true that Ireland appear to approach this series in infinitely better nick. Settled and with ten wins out of 13, against a side shorn of six injured players and with only four of its last line-up.
Jake White has been quite bullish about the homework he has done on his opening test opponents, yesterday claiming that he'd based his video work on all Munster's games this season as well as all Ireland's games in the World Cup and the Six Nations.
And captain John Smit maintains this is one of the happiest South African squads he's ever been part of. "The squad is based pretty much on guys who have played together throughout junior ranks, from schools as well, and we've achieved a lot together. The guys are pretty much a family as well as a team by this stage."
Besides, teams under new coaching regimes, or teams largely rebuilt, can sometimes click unexpectedly. In any event, for all the troubles in South African rugby, all the bloodletting and backbiting, these baby Boks are the game's unknown quantity, and they could be better than many people expect.
With climate and home support in their favour, after three and a half weeks in camp, White admitted that the key for a fired-up, eager young home side will be to keep their composure. If they overstep the mark in the physical stakes, then a key figure will be Tony Spreadbury.
As much as anything, this will be a test of Ireland's physique and character, and though they arrive here in relatively rude health, they are a little match rusty. If Smit's throwing holds good, the Boks also have a pretty decent lineout, with Botha and the abrasive Victor Matfield backed by a mammoth back row.
It is critical that the green line (the Boks will change into white) remains resolute in the opening 15 minutes. An early breakthrough for the Boks would imbue them with confidence.
Admittedly this Irish team shouldn't be inclined to panic, and if they are still in the hunt in the meat of the match, their greater cohesion should count.
The Boks have used a faintly ridiculous 94 players in 36 matches. By contrast, Ireland have used 49 in O'Sullivan's 34 games. Nowhere is their greater experience more evident than in the decision-making, central spine of the team. The Boks blood an uncapped number 8, Pedrie Wannenberg, an uncapped scrum-half, Fourie du Preez, and an outhalf, Jaco van der Westhuyzen, who has won his previous nine caps at full back.
Aside from all the times they've played together for Munster, the 8-9-10 axis of Anthony Foley, Peter Stringer and Ronan O'Gara have also started 22 tests together. This should mean they are less liable to make mistakes under pressure.
Then, if Ireland start taking their points and applying the pressure, the untested Boks ought to be the ones more likely to make mistakes, in that 8-9-10 axis, perhaps even at lineout time, if forced to play catch-up. In short, Ireland look a smarter outfit.
Gaffie du Toit is temperamentally brittle and a less reliable kicker than O'Gara. Defensively, the Boks oughtn't to be nearly as well-organised as Ireland, and with a fully fit Geordan Murphy to add his box of tricks to the dancing feet of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy, and Shane Horgan seemingly rejuvenated by his Barbarians experience, Ireland have a more potent look to them as well.
Ireland have never lost to a side ranked below them in O'Sullivan's reign. Deservedly ranked fifth above the Springboks now, they have a gilt-edged opportunity to move in amongst the elite.
SOUTH AFRICA: G du Toit (Stormers); B Paulse (Stormers), M Joubert (Stormers), W Julies (Cats), H Mentz (Sharks); J van der Westhuyzen (Leicester), F du Preez (Bulls); O du Randt (Cats), J Smit (Sharks, capt), E Andrews (Stormers), B Botha (Bulls), V Matfield (Bulls), S Burger (Stormers), P Wannenburg (Bulls), J Cronje (Bulls). Replacements: H Shimange (Cats), C van der Linde (Cats), Q Davids (Stormers), G Britz (Cats), J Conradie (Stormers), J Fourie (Cats), B Russell (Sharks).
IRELAND: G Dempsey (Leinster); S Horgan (Leinster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), G Murphy (Leicester); R O'Gara (Munster), P Stringer (Munster); R Corrigan (Leinster), S Byrne (Leinster), J Hayes (Munster), M O'Kelly (Leinster), P O'Connell (Munster), S Easterby (Llanelli), D Wallace (Munster), A Foley (Munster). Replacements: F Sheahan (Munster), M Horan (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), A Quinlan (Munster), G Easterby (Rotherham), D Humphreys (Ulster), K Maggs (Bath).
Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England).
Overall head-to-heads: Played 14, South Africa 12 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 1 win.
Biggest wins - South Africa: 38-0, Durban (1912). Ireland: 9-6, Dublin (1965).
Last five meetings: (1981) South Africa 12 Ireland 10. (1988) South Africa 37 Ireland 13. (1998) South Africa 33 Ireland 0. (1998) Ireland 13 South Africa 27. (2000) Ireland 18 South Africa 28.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 8/13 South Africa, 20/1 Draw, 5/4 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Ireland +4pts) 10/11 South Africa, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
