The age profile of the Ireland squad reflects the challenge facing Declan Kidney between now and
the 2011 World Cup, writes Gerry Thornley.

DECLAN KIDNEY's belated coronation on Wednesday, seven weeks after the position of Irish head coach became vacant, was undoubtedly a benchmark in Irish rugby; albeit what you might call A Very Irish Changing of the Guard. Similarly with the team, it will probably be a case of steady as she goes, with no dramatic turnover in personnel.

Although Kidney had no input, apparently, into the composition of the 30-man squad announced yesterday to take on the All Blacks and Australia, one imagines it would not have been too far from what his predecessor or he himself would have picked.

It leans heavily on the tried and trusted, and underlines that no less than his predecessor, to a large degree Kidney's scope for experimentation will be limited by what the provinces offer him.

Furthermore, this summer's daunting two-Test tour to New Zealand and Australia is followed by the immediacy of maintaining a top-eight world ranking by the time of the World Cup draw in December, and an autumn itinerary that will comprise games against Canada, the All Blacks and Argentina, and possibly one against South Africa.

The French have shown the beginning of a four-year World Cup cycle offers the most elbow room, and to a degree a chance has already been lost - witness the dead rubber against England.

Given the importance of the Six Nations, as next year is a Lions year, Ireland have no summer Tests planned. Peering into the future then, the first window of opportunity to look beyond the short-term and start developing a few options with the 2011 World Cup in mind will be autumn 2009, when Ireland are to host Australia, Fiji and South Africa.

For all the fears that the good times are over and Kidney has inherited a poisoned chalice, the core of the side remains intact, despite the retirements of Denis Hickie and Simon Easterby, not to mention the age profile of the team. Furthermore, a crop of good young players are breaking into the Test environment, headed by Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald and Tommy Bowe.

However, peering further into the future, it is clear Kidney and his management ticket will be faced with perhaps the biggest transitional phase Ireland will have faced in the professional era and for some time before that.

Rewind to the World Cup and it merely underlines what an opportunity was wasted.

The established first-choice XV that had accounted for England so memorably - in what now clearly, and sadly, represented a peak at croke Park over a year ago - and was then put in cold storage for the World Cup, reappeared in tandem for the second pool game against Georgia.

The majority had over 50 caps per head and were in their late 20s, with some in their early 30s, and all bar two had been to one or more World Cups before. The average of the 22 that night in Bordeaux was just over 29.

But, of course, that means their average age would be just over 33 at the next World Cup. Indeed, of the 22 on duty in Bordeaux, only Rory Best and Denis Leamy would be under 30 come September 2011 - and both will be 29.

Eddie O'Sullivan initially stayed loyal to pretty much all of those who were still available at the outset of the Six Nations against Italy, save for Peter Stringer. But because, in the main, of injuries and to a lesser extent form and retirement, the transitional process kicked in over the tournament. By the final weekend, when Ireland played England, the gradual introduction of Bowe, Trimble, Kearney and Heaslip meant the average age of the starting XV had dipped to 27.3, and of the squad to 27.6.

Fast forward to 2011 and it's clear that if even seven or eight of the so-called Untouchables were still in the starting line-up, it would be an achievement given the rigours of modern-day rugby and the ravages of time.

This presupposes that Ronan O'Gara, at 34, will have kept his fitness, and likewise Brian O'Driscoll, Jerry Flannery and Donncha O'callaghan at 32, along with Gordon D'Arcy and Paul O'Connell at 31.

By the same token, one wouldn't rule out, say, Peter Stringer and Shane Horgan, at 33, or Marcus Horan at 34 still being there, but you'd imagine it will be a bridge too far for John Hayes, Malcolm O'Kelly, Girvan Dempsey and David Wallace.

While one can envisage a reasonably experienced starting XV in New Zealand, it's when one starts scratching a little below the surface that the back-up appears less obvious. The likelihood therefore is that at least six of a possible first-choice 22 have yet to fully establish themselves even at provincial level, and around a dozen won't have played in a World Cup before.

The main concerns in the back line are obviously for a back-up or alternative to O'Gara, and to the Gordon D'Arcy-O'Driscoll midfield combination. O'Gara's health, more than that of any other player, remains inextricably linked to the well-being of both Munster and Ireland. Leinster's careful husbandry of Jonathan Sexton is the most encouraging development in a stuttering outhalf conveyor belt for some time, and either Ian Humphreys, Niall O'Connor or Paddy Wallace ought to emerge at Ulster over the next few years. But why isn't Sexton going Down Under?

In addition, Ian Keatley's move to Connacht ought to speed up his development, while there's a raft of talented young scrumhalves itching to make a breakthrough, with Frank Murphy's move to Connacht a positive sign, and the hope remains that Duncan Williams's ill-luck with injuries turns soon.

Much is made of the Tipoki-Mafi Munster axis slowing the progress of Barry Murphy, Kieran Lewis and Keith Earls, but a player should have to earn his provincial spot, regardless of nationality, as Donncha Ryan is now doing. The pity is that an appearance for the New Zealand Sevens apparently rules out the possibility of Mafi qualifying through residency in a year's time.

Even so, Earls, still only 20, should begin to come through with Munster in the first six months of next season, whether as a winger or a centre.

There are several young props and hookers with the potential to emerge over the next three years, such as Cian Healy, Darragh Hurley, Seán Cronin and Denis Fogarty, though they have a long road to travel.

These things go in cycles, and long-term second-row looks to be more problematic.

But, on top of seeing their coaching staff breaking up, a golden generation of Munster backrowers is coming to an end, with Anthony Foley's impending retirement the cue for the likes of Niall Ronan and John O'Sullivan to start making inroads.

No doubt others will emerge over the next three years. Leinster backboned the successful Ireland under-20 side of two seasons ago and much is expected of the newly contracted Ireland under-20 and Leinster prop Jamie Hagen, openside Seán O'Brien, scrumhalf Paul O'Donoghue, centre Eoin O'Malley, Felix Jones and Fionn Carr, also Connacht bound.

But it's clear Ireland will need a few them, and sharpish.

Four years a long time in rugby

IRELAND V GEORGIA

RWC September 15th, 2007

Dempsey (31)

Horgan (29)

B O'Driscoll (28)

D'Arcy (27)

Hickie (31)

O'Gara (30)

Stringer (29)

Horan (30)

R Best (25)

Hayes (34)

O'Callaghan (28)

O'Connell (27)

Easterby (32)

D Wallace (31)

Leamy (25)

Replacements: Flannery (28) S Best (29) O'Kelly (33) N Best (28) Boss (27) P Wallace (28) Murphy (29)

IRELAND V ENGLAND

Six Nations, March 15th, 2008

Murphy (29)

Bowe (24)

Trimble (23)

Horgan (29)

Kearney (21)

O'Gara (31)

Reddan (27)

Horan (30)

R Best (25)

Hayes (34)

O'Callaghan (28)

O'Connell (28)

Leamy (26)

Wallace (31)

Heaslip (24)

Replacements: Jackman (31) Buckley (27) M O'Driscoll (29) Easterby (32) Stringer (30) P Wallace (28) Fitzgerald (20)

IRELAND AT RWC 2011?

Fitzgerald (24)

Trimble (26)

O'Driscoll (32)

D'Arcy (31)

Kearney (25)

O'Gara (34)

Reddan (30)

Healy (25)

Flannery (32)

Buckley (31)

O'Callaghan (32)

O'Connell (31)

Leamy (29)

Jennings (30)

Heaslip (28)

Replacements: Cronin (25) Hurley (25) Caldwell (27) Ryan (27) Murphy (29) Sexton (26) Bowe (28)

Dubai on cards: Declan Kidney's first game as Ireland head coach could yet be in Dubai as distinct from Thomond Park against Canada on September 8th.

An IRFU spokesperson yesterday confirmed the Union were still in negotiations with the South African RFU about playing the Springboks in Dubai on November 1st.

"We are still examining the possible of playing South Africa in Dubai and we are in discussions with the South African Rugby Union," said IRFU press officer Karl Richardson, reflecting a growing trend to stage tests in rugby outposts.