LEINSTER v EDINBURGH:A LONG, hard season doesn't come down to tomorrow evening and Leinster will know this morning if they require a victory to secure a home semi-final after a two-front campaign became just one in Toulouse last week. There was no shame in that defeat but if Edinburgh squeeze out a win – and be sure their whole season lives and dies on this result – Munsters aspirations may falter.
Win and save Munster for themselves is one way Leinster can look at it. A losing bonus point would probably be enough but Michael Cheika knows better than most that momentum delivers silverware. The players should also be keen to send him off to new beginnings in Paris with another trophy and why not the scalp of Munster in Croke Park for good measure?
That remains a possibility, providing Munster hold up their end of the bargain in Cardiff, and sneak into third even to avoid an all-Irish semi-final. There are loads of conundrums that will not be sorted out until tomorrow night.
Only dealing with certainties, Leinster are without an established place-kicker leaving journeyman Australian Shaun Berne directing traffic at pivot. Berne, in fairness, kicked well from the ground in Toulouse but Jonny Sexton he is not. A natural Northern Hemisphere outhalf he is not either so they should spray it wide at every opportunity. Sexton has yet to recover after having a plate removed from his jaw.
Fergus McFadden is a decent kicking alternative but his availability after a knee injury also requires confirmation this afternoon. If McFadden doesn’t make it, Cheika may opt for a five-two split amongst the replacements.
There are other obvious absentees and tomorrow will show just how far Dominic Ryan has to travel before he can stand tall beside Shane Jennings.
Jennings, remember, served his time behind Keith Gleeson before becoming the integral squad member he is today. The observant punter will see Ryan exuding enough hard edge already to eventually become Jennings’ equal be it in defence, as a link man, the breakdown or just sheer bloody-mindedness.
Seán O’Brien’s (yet to be confirmed) presence off the bench, after a rapid recovery from a leg fracture, would offset the loss of the vice-captain.
Bernard Jackman may have played his last game for Leinster having been almost certainly ruled out for the remainder of the season with a recurring neck injury.
Already director of rugby at Clontarf RFC and due to assist the St Michael’s College forwards next season, his transition into coaching is firmly under way but he will not be able to join Girvan Dempsey in a farewell performance tomorrow evening. Should the 34-year-old Dempsey be sprung late on he will be earning his 175th cap for the province.
The sight of Welsh referee James Jones will hardly provide much cheer for Cheika in what he hopes is his third last fixture in charge before taking up the reigns with Stade Francais.
Jones astonished most viewers by brandishing four yellow cards to Leinster forwards in the 30-6 defeat to Glasgow last month. That he has another Leinster fixture so soon after, he also ran the line in Toulouse, indicates either a lack of action from the assessors or Jones’s performance in Firhill was deemed sufficient.
Edinburgh have made five changes from their last outing, the most notable being the galvanising return of Scottish international flanker Ali Hogg after a hip operation. He, more than any other, will provide the litmus test for Ryan.
Head coach Rob Moffat is confident Edinburgh can spoil the party.
“We know what we have to do this weekend and the teams who finish in the top four and qualify for the play-offs are those who deserve to be on their form over the whole season.
“We know we are capable of getting five points from the game in Dublin and that is not said with any disrespect to Leinster who are among the best teams in Europe and who will be hurting at their Heineken defeat last weekend.
“It’s said from the fact that when we play to the best of our ability we can beat the best teams in Europe – just as we have against Stade Francais, the Ospreys, Bath and Munster this season.”
Leinster need to dig deep. Three more times. They did it in 2009 with that amazing run against Harlequins, Munster and Leicester en route to European glory. This is different and the condition of the players must be questioned considering the number of recently wounded who are back on the field. This one, at least, is well within their range.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; S Horgan, B ODriscoll, G DArcy, I Nacewa; S Berne, E Reddan; C Healy, J Fogarty, S Wright; L Cullen (capt), N Hines; K McLaughlin, D Ryan, J Heaslip. Replacements (from): R Strauss, M Ross, CJ va der Linde, M OKelly, S OBrien, Stephen Keogh, P ODonoghue, F McFadden, G Dempsey.
EDINBURGH: J Thompson; T Visser, B Cairns, N De Luca, M Robertson; P Godman, G Laidlaw; A Jacobsen, R Ford, K Traynor; S MacLeod, S Turnbull; A MacDonald, A Hogg, R Grant. Replacements: A Kelly, G Cross, J Hamilton, S Newlands, M Blair/D Blair, J Houston, A Turnbull.
Referee: James Jones (WRU).
Verdict: Leinster win.
