Conor O'Dwyer's concerns that soft ground could diminish War Of Attrition's chances of successfully defending his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown won't have been helped yesterday with news that unsettled weather in the Gloucestershire area is being forecast for the rest of this week.
The going at Cheltenham yesterday was officially "soft" with heavy patches and there doesn't appear to be any immediate change likely in that description.
Not since 1989, and Desert Orchid's famous Gold Cup victory, has there been heavy ground for the festival but some bookmakers are now offering odds of only 14 to 1 about a similar mud-bath being in place this year.
That would be far from ideal for War Of Attrition who won on his seasonal reappearance at Punchestown in October but has been beaten in three starts since on testing conditions.
"I rode him out last week and while we didn't do a huge amount he felt in fantastic form and Mouse (Morris) is delighted with him," O'Dwyer said yesterday.
The veteran double Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle winning jockey added: "Obviously at this stage of the season you're worried about everything but a big concern has to be the ground. Certainly the drier it could be, the better for War Of Attrition. He travels and jumps so much better on a sound surface. I just hope it doesn't get too soft over there."
Ground conditions at Cheltenham are certainly not ideal for fast-ground horses at the moment although the clerk of the course, Simon Claisse, did appear to hold out some hope for drier weather next week.
"We had 6mms overnight and the track has taken it pretty well. If we were racing today, the ground would be soft - heavy in places. There are heavy bits coming down the hill on the New Course which is used on Thursday and Friday, and also on the cross-country course," he said.
"We are due for a mild week this week but there is a strong sign of some high pressure building for next week and we may well start the festival with some warm spring-like weather," he added. William Hill rate an official verdict of "good to soft" as an 8 to 11 favourite for the first day of the festival.
The odds will be a lot shorter on heavy ground for Leopardstown on Sunday when much of the attention will be on the post-race work-outs by some of Ireland's top festival hopes.
The Champion Hurdle winner Brave Inca is due to lead the star names with up to 50 horses expected to take up the chance of a racecourse gallop just nine days before the festival kicks off.
"We had half an inch of rain overnight so we are currently heavy. Not too much more is expected through the week but I can't see it being much better on the day," said Leopardstown's manager Tom Burke yesterday. "We are not too sure how many will be here to work after racing but there were about 45 last year. I'm sure it will be Sunday morning before we know for sure who will be here," he added.
Newmill's trainer John Murphy has all but ruled out his Champion Chase winner taking up the option of the Champion Hurdle instead.The Co Cork trainer said yesterday: "He is going for the Queen Mother Champion Chase unless the ground comes up very, very heavy. He is going for the Champion Chase, though, no doubt. I would say to those that have backed him for the Queen Mother, don't worry."Sunday's feature at Leopardstown, the track's last jumping fixture of the season, will be the Mick Holly Memorial Handicap Chase which has Jim topping the weights. Next in the ratings is the Tom Taaffe-trained Slim Pickings.
Black Jack Ketchum's trainer Jonjo O'Neill would have no qualms about pulling his star out of the World Hurdle if the ground remains as it is at Cheltenham. Last month's Byrne Bros Cleeve Hurdle at the track, run on heavy ground, was the scene of the gelding's first defeat when he was a lifeless fifth behind Blazing Bailey.
O'Neill was unable to find anything wrong with Black Jack Ketchum, and with the ground soft on the Old Course and soft, heavy in places on the New, he is hoping for things to dry up.
Cheltenham going, William Hill bet: 8-11 Good To Soft, 11-4 Soft, 11-4 Good, 14 Heavy, 100 Good To Firm.
