Trawling through the memories of the last four or five European Cup finals presents you with a series of games defined by edgy caution - cagey, hesitant affairs often settled with a half chance.

And despite the cavalier spirit that has underlined Manchester United's romp through Europe this season, I fully expect tonight's final to adhere to recent tradition - in fact it wouldn't greatly surprise me if the occasion is decided by penalties.

Bayern boss Ottmar Hitzfeld has already announced that Munich will employ Markus Babbel to smother Ryan Giggs's creativity and they will also pay specific attention to David Beckham and the front pair of Andy Cole and Dwight Yorke.

This quartet have shown themselves to be the gems in United's free-flowing attack, the source of their admirable goal tally in European games this season.

Bayern will hope that by marginalising these four and maintaining their own formation, they can keep the game tight and see what happens from there. And it's not all that difficult to foresee them executing this containing tactic successfully. If the German people are hoping to rid themselves of the reputation for clinical efficiency, Bayern aren't doing much to aid the cause. For instance, they had the official brand of match ball flown out to Munich and have been training solely with it for the past 10 days. A detail so small as to be an afterthought for many teams, but Bayern's preparation has been meticulous.

Also, the pitch in the Nou Camp has, for some reason, been measured to within millimetres of Bayern's own home pitch (rendering it around a metre and a half narrower than the Old Trafford boundary lines) which can only be a help to them. As a team, they also reflect Germany's perceived national strengths - they are technically very adept, composed, hugely organised and have formidable collective resolve. Even a glance through their team-sheet points at a notable lack of individual lights - Stefan Effenberg excepted - but as a unit, they are daunting.

How will they look to exploit United? Well, when United have been vulnerable this season, it has been when teams have attacked the space between the central defenders and wing backs. In theory, it is the centre backs' responsibility to cover such runs, but United play extremely flat and they are liable to be caught in this way. Also, the absence of Keane and Scholes suggests a midfield role for Ronny Johnsen, with May and Stam squaring up at the back. When they played Juventus, Inzaghi repeatedly shredded the back four with such incisive dashes. Thing is, you search in vain for someone on the Bayern side with the same turn of speed or ability to exploit the smallest chink of light.

Bayern goal-poach through methodical approach work rather than by any improvised sleight of foot. The nature of their team dictates that. Lothar Matthaus, for instance, continues to exist at this level despite the fact that he actually can't run any more. While he remains a sublimely prodigious player on the ball, his legs are just gone. However, he is afforded excellent cover by the likes of Thomas Strunz, Babbel and Michael Tarnat, who has been filling the void left by Lizarazu.

But when Alex Ferguson leafs through the Bayern CVs, he might well place an asterisk alongside Matthaus as a potential defensive weaklink. Images of Giggs or Butt or Yorke cutting loose against the ageing German international spring to mind.

I expect Untied to opt for Gary Neville, David May, Jaap Stam and Denis Irwin at the back with a midfield quartet of Beckham, Butt, Johnsen and Giggs. Cole and Yorke will unquestionably spearhead the attack.

And it's a balanced line-up. Yes, Roy Keane is a massive loss in terms of midfield influence and fiery leadership, but his absence is not insurmountable. Johnsen has excelled in midfield before, he has a good physical presence, passes well and can drop back should Stam encounter difficulties, because doubts remain over the Dutchman's fitness. Johnsen's natural defensive leanings may also allow Nicky Butt to be more adventurous and United need him to get forward as Scholes has done so effectively. Elsewhere, well, May is likely to find himself starring in the year's glamour night after a winter spent fidgeting on various benches - but he deserves it. Any time Ferguson has called on him, he has been excellent and the shrewdness of purchasing him that time from Blackburn is really becoming apparent now.

Like Bayern, United will be competent and difficult to expose at the back and combatant around the centre. They would appear to hold the cards when it comes to the front duo; Cole and Yorke possess more verve and imagination than Alex Zickler and Carsten Jancker.

I would doubt that Ferguson will instruct his charges to stifle the precocious attitude that has blossomed in his team this year, but I do feel they will run into something of an organisational wall against Bayern. It will make for a testy evening for United followers and possibly a game low on incident for neutrals. I'm not unequivocally ruling out the prospect of goals - an early Bayern strike would open the game up immensely, because United have demonstrated that if they are stung, they tend to attempt to hit back with abandon. But, more realistically, I can see this match drifting tentatively through extra time with each side maybe grabbing a goal each over the evening. A goal feast would be lovely, but it seems a remote possibility. In matches of this magnitude, caution tends to prevail, particularly in the last quarter when tiredness creeps in and players become drained through sheer mental tension.

And if it all rests on spot-kicks, we can count on the Germans having acted and re-enacted such a scenario. One can but assume that United will have done the same.

Whatever the quality of the game, the night itself is momentous in the history of both clubs. Bayern Munich are hoping to emulate United in capturing a domestic league and cup double and in their European games both teams have established their pre-eminence in the most arduous of encounters. There is just so little between them.

Whatever factor it is that could turn this game is just too minute and circumstantial to pinpoint. Could well be a missed penalty.

(In an interview with Keith Duggan)