SEAN MORANon what will be a championship of either hurling history, with Kilkenny claiming a unique streak, or a watershed summer, with one of the challengers making a huge step forward

THE FIRST big weekend of the GAA All-Ireland hurling championship arrives with more than the usual optimism of a new season. This will be either history in the making or a watershed summer, marked by the fall of Kilkenny.

Recent years have had a stronger sense of deja vu about them than is healthy in an elite competition, but this time around for reasons that are due partly to the law of averages and partly to more substantive considerations, the destination of the MacCarthy Cup isn’t looking quite as obvious.

It’s a bit like the way in which Britain can elect two governments at the one election if they decide to give one of the parties a big enough majority.

A year ago Kilkenny were set to defend an All-Ireland title won by 23 points the previous September.

Of course, it’s questionable whether the then three-in-a-row champions were actually nearly six goals better than all comers, but realistically how much better would other contenders have done in the face of an exceptional team display during which the winners appeared to be doing battle with their own highest standards rather than with a blitzed Waterford side, who were more or less as good as the rest?

Last year was different, with Kilkenny’s winning margin down to an average of five points, an almost humble plurality for a team whose winning average over the course of the four-in-a-row between 2006 and ’09 was in double digits.

Was there further cause for rebellious optimism in the fact the champions conceded more goals than their opponents three times in four matches?

The essence of the matter concerns Kilkenny’s consistency and unflappability.

For anyone who believes such quality is a given with dominant teams there is the peculiar case of the All Blacks, who as my French brother-in-law was happy to point out (and before the 2007 quarter-final) either win World Cup matches by lots or lose.

In other words, as if spooked by competition, they virtually never (apparently a group match with England in 1991 is an exception) win the close matches.

In that respect, Kilkenny can’t be faulted. At no stage did they look like losing last year and that’s because they are never beaten until the match is over.

Galway, and more particularly Tipperary, both exerted enough pressure on the champions to give themselves a shot at downing them, but couldn’t live with the crucial final quarter.

Tipp were within touching distance, six minutes, of being about to win last September when Kilkenny pumped two quick goals into them and the glimpse of achievement died for the Munster champions.

As in all such victories, the champions stayed afloat under pressure, sniping relieving scores and remaining sufficiently buoyant to surge for shore when it was time to do so.

It should also be remembered that Kilkenny brought out the best in their nearest contenders, with neither Galway nor Tipperary playing as well in their other matches last summer.

Can both of them use 2009’s summits as 2010 base camps?

Sceptics can point to a mediocre league by Kilkenny standards, but, although they obligingly gave up much-prized wins to three of their four deadliest rivals, the margins were narrow and the team notably under-strength.

The trialling of new players was methodical and useful and performances competitive without the intensity burners fully engaged.

The county’s desire to contest the league has been part of the approach to All-Ireland campaigns under Brian Cody, but over that period it’s been hard to escape the conclusion that Kilkenny have been conferring status on the league rather than vice versa.

Tipperary continue to unveil valuable new talent and have the most formidably settled defence, but it has slipped general attention that the half-forward line’s performance in last year’s All-Ireland was an off-the-graph deviation so change will be needed.

In the league final, Galway did all of the things that have appeared to elude them in crunch championship environments: sprang tactical variations, gave Joe Canning solid scoring support and didn’t relax their grip on proceedings.

But Cork that day show-cased their manifold shortcomings more vividly than the incrementally encouraging progress they had made in the league up until that point.

The injury to Fergal Moore represents a loss of quality that few defences could comfortably accommodate and the collective desire remains to be tested and approved in the most demanding circumstances. But on the positive side, the newcomers in the league looked promising and, assuming they clear this evening’s Wexford hurdle, a Leinster final against Kilkenny would be an excellent diagnostic for John McIntyre and his players.

The lingering temptation to exclaim, “are you still here?” at the sight of Waterford overlooks in the long term the amount of significant under-age progress made in the county in recent years.

Running repairs of a more immediate nature may be required, but now the pressure of being expected to win has been lifted by the passage of time they can be hard to beat, as Galway found out last year, and they remain the fourth-ranked team in most people’s reckoning, which, as with Clare in the past decade, gives them status without the likelihood of silverware.

Is Dublin’s glass half-empty or half-full?

Flirting with relegation and losing five matches wasn’t the campaign that Anthony Daly would have wanted, but the general competitiveness was reassuring.

Immediate objectives could usefully include reproducing the feistiness of last year’s Leinster final when facing Kilkenny in the semi-finals and taking a Munster scalp along the way.

The provincial balance has tilted with Leinster now providing more Division One counties than Munster.

It’s been an ultimately good year for Offaly, safely holding on to their place in the top grouping, and Wexford, proving again their once-off capabilities by overturning a mediocre campaign to take the promotion spot from Clare on the last day.

Ger O’Loughlin’s team are on a long journey, but at least can be said to have got under way, whereas Limerick are travelling in the opposite direction with no apparent end in sight.

Completing the Leinster well-being is a young Laois side moving purposefully under Niall Rigney and Carlow, back in the big time, and despite becoming the first team to lose in the 2010 championship, will happily test themselves in the qualifiers without the spectre of relegation inhibiting them.

Finally, Antrim are in difficulties and await better times to get the full value out of their migration to Leinster.

But like Carlow they can go about their business unconcerned about their immediate future in the Liam MacCarthy Cup, which will not be relegating teams for another two years.