Dublin Flyer can defy the statisticians and seize victory in the £60,000-added Murphy's Gold Cup at Cheltenham today. The pundits who base their selection on past results will tell you that the 11-year-old is up against it.
Not since 1975 has a horse older than 10 emerged as the winner in the early season showpiece, previously known as the Mackeson. But the admirable Dublin Flyer, a winner of the corresponding event two years ago, looks just the type to buck the trend.
Cheltenham is tailor-made for Tim Forster's bold-jumping gelding - he has won three times over the Prestbury Park fences - although he will want to forget last year's episode in this race.
Adopting his customary frontrunning tactics, Dublin Flyer was still travelling strongly when slipping up on the flat after jumping the fourth from home. He put that aberration behind with two tidy wins before failing to get home in the Gold Cup.
Dublin Flyer has always been a horse that goes best fresh - so a lack of a run this season should not be a problem - and on one of his favourite courses he should be a tough nut to crack.
Scottish racing regulars will not hear of defeat for Sparky Gayle, who is unbeaten in six races over fences. It is not surprising that trainer Colin Parker has opted to go for this event rather than take on Mr Mulligan at Ayr for substantially less prize money.
Certainly with a weight of 10st 2lb, Sparky Gayle has been given every chance by the handicapper. His win in the Cathcart Chase - in a fast time - shows that he can handle the demanding Cheltenham fences.
But he will be tackling experienced handicappers for the first time and his jumping will be put fully to the test. A price of around 9 to 4 does not represent great value.
Last year's winner Challenger de Luc is 7lb higher - and despite having the phenomenal Tony McCoy to steer him - that may be just enough to stop him.
On an excellent support card, Inchcailloch catches the eye in the Flowers Handicap Chase. This smart dual-purpose horse - he won last year's Cesarewitch - is admirably consistent. He performed with plenty of credit when third at Ascot last time over three miles. Inchcailloch would probably have done better there with a faster gallop and should be suited by the step up to a trip of more than 3m 3f.
No one is going to get rich backing Mr Mulligan to score in the Sean Graham Chase at Ayr. The best of the Gold Cup winner's four rivals, Beachy Head, is 2st out of the handicap while Boarding School has to carry 4st 11b more than his official rating.
Ayr also features the chasing debut of the promising Edelweis du Moulin. It will be a big disappointment if he fails to collect the Glengoyne Novices' Chase.
The feature race at Cheltenham tomorrow, the £40,000 Murphy's Draughtflow Handicap Hurdle, is a tough event to unravel. But Desert Mountain, off a lenient-looking 10st 5lb, is probably the wisest investment. The gelding appeared to show greatly improved form when storming home at Wetherby last month.
Only five go to post for the Mitsubishi Shogun Novices' Chase but the Grade Two race, featuring several bright prospects, should be a treat. The selection is the strapping mare Queen of Spades.
