FOOTBALL ANALYST:Despite some problems Dublin should beat Westmeath convincingly, and Armagh should see off Down's challenge, writes John O'Keeffe.
THE ASSUMPTION about Croke Park is that Dublin are rolling towards a four-in-a-row in Leinster. Tomorrow will be a reality check and should tell us the extent to which the Leinster champions are an improving team - or if they are.
Westmeath are resilient, battle-hardened and consistent. They have learned how to play winning football. Tomás Ó Flatharta believes in the primacy of defence and it shows, as his team have six quality defenders making up one of the best units in the game and backed up by half forwards dropping back.
They were the tightest defence in the National League, conceding just 61 points in the regular games and 71 points overall including the Division Two final, when they beat an under-strength Dublin. If a team has gained that experience of consistently playing well they become very hard to break down.
Ó Flatharta knows the primary duty of defenders is to mark your man and win possession - not make gung-ho runs out of defence, which have been the undoing of many teams trying to look good going forward. Up front they've natural forwards in Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon. Losing Martin Flanagan from the starting line-up because of injury is a major blow for Westmeath and even if he is cleared from the bench at an early stage the suspicion has to be he's not 100 per cent right.
Dublin need about a 10 per cent improvement if they're finally going to win the All-Ireland. There's no doubting their spirit and desire or the advantage of Croke Park, which is a fortress for them in the Leinster championship and gives them a massive support base no other team has. But they have three main deficiencies to address.
One is defence: when opposing players run at Dublin the reaction is one of major panic often followed by the concession of frees. Bryan Cullen needs to control the centre and not worry about getting forward. Ross McConnell needs to follow his man more closely and contest possession more effectively.
As a unit they need a defensive mentality or alignment. I can never see the point in David Henry pushing forward into scoring positions, leaving gaps behind and clogging up space that the forwards can exploit. All of these are potentially very good defenders; they just need to get the adventurous mentality out of their game.
Secondly, there has been an almost clockwork fade-out period for Dublin in most matches, which is coming from the middle third of the field. The team used to have Ciarán Whelan taking a breather in the middle and Shane Ryan running out of gas from time to time and when the intensity dropped there the whole team suffered. The unearthing of Eamonn Fennell has been very important for Dublin. He has a high work-rate and tomorrow Whelan is on the bench, ready to come in with fresh legs. If Dublin can maintain the energy in the middle over 70 minutes there should be a significant improvement in the supply into the forwards. When Whelan goes well, Dublin go well; when's he gone quiet there's a malaise throughout the whole team.
Thirdly, the forwards have to play more as a unit. How many times in recent years have scoring options been wasted because of failure to pass? Alan Brogan is captain and maybe on the verge of a big year but he must sort out the tendency to put the head down when more considered use of the ball is required to complement the overall pace and movement in the forwards.
These aren't impossible improvements to make and I expect Dublin to win tomorrow and do so reasonably convincingly.
In Clones, it's refreshing to see Down realistically challenging again. The success at minor, and to a lesser extent under-21, is beginning to pay dividends. There was pace and flow to their game against Tyrone. Benny Coulter is well established in the forwards but he's been getting good support this season from Daniel Hughes.
Armagh looked comfortable against Cavan and Paul McGrane was colossal at midfield, which puts a major responsibility on Down captain Dan Gordon. I looked at Gordon for the International Rules panel in 2003 and although he was very enthusiastic he hadn't the experience or the physique. Since then he's filled out a lot and has become a senior player. He'll have a lot on his plate tomorrow.
The reason I believe Armagh are going to win this is Peter McDonnell has done a good job of rebuilding. He's kept a strong and experienced backbone to the team: Francie Bellew, Aidan O'Rourke, McGrane and Ronan Clarke; only Stephen Kernan at centre forward is a newcomer. But he's also added new players.
Charlie Vernon impressed on his championship debut. He's a good record at Sigerson Cup level and looks a fine prospect. Maybe he lacks a bit of pace but his work-rate and attitude are excellent.
Armagh have a good blend of the composure that comes from experience and the enthusiasm of younger players. Can Down's flair catch them out? It depends on how you rate the Tyrone challenge, which I feel has been fading with all of the injuries to influential forwards. I think it's unlikely.
With just one avenue of appeal left to Paul Galvin after yesterday, I expect Pat O'Shea realises whatever the outcome, he and the team have to get back to business. In the 1970s and '80s we were lucky in that we never had to cope with major suspensions; then again we didn't have any players who played that much on the edge.
The Kerry management will be already working on alternative arrangements in the half forwards. He's a huge loss, particularly at Croke Park where his work-rate won't be easily replaced. His ability to win breaking ball came naturally and isn't something you can coach into younger players over a couple of weeks.
Add in the injury to Declan O'Sullivan and you've a seriously weakened unit but this is about putting confidence into players like Darren O'Sullivan or Seán O'Sullivan, who have had the comfort zone of only being needed for about 20 minutes in matches. The talent is there but the task will be to instil the necessary self-belief.
