RUGBY:AS ONE wag observed during the week, this could be the first game in the Six Nations where both sets of fans will be cheering for the opposition in order to be rid of their respective coaches. But come kick-off at England's headquarters this afternoon, nothing could be further from the truth. This is England v Ireland after all. Nuff said.
Thousands of Irish supporters will make their biennial pilgrimage to Twickenham, hoping for the most cherished scalp of all. It might not yield a title or even a Triple Crown, but it would help to mask another disappointing campaign and extend Ireland's winning run in the fixture to five.
England are similarly positioned, so this afternoon offers both teams and their under-fire head coaches a last shot at redemption. Whether it proves a make-or-break game for either coach, this clash is rightly sandwiched between the wooden-spoon decider and the title shoot-out in Cardiff between the competition's most ambitious sides, and it's what makes it one of the most unpredictable matches of the tournament.
Which England will turn up, the hard-nosed, defensively destructive outfit of Paris, or the witless wonders of Edinburgh? And which Ireland, the strong-finishers of Paris, the opportunists against Scotland or the fear-riddled team that played so narrowly against Wales? There is no pattern with either of them and now Brian Ashton has rolled the dice with his selection of Danny Cipriani.
Amazingly, Cipriani becomes England's fifth outhalf in the last five meetings, whereas, of course, Ireland's newly installed captain, Ronan O'Gara, has been an ever present in the pivotal position.
It's instructive to note England will have used 49 players in the last five starting line-ups for this fixture; Ireland's tally is 29.
As Ireland discovered when hosting Wales last weekend, some rivals are in vengeful mood over recent hidings, and to put the events of Croke Park a year ago into clearer perspective, in 120 games between the countries Ireland have never inflicted a defeat on the scale of that day of days. This left Ashton with the dubious distinction of coaching both sides to record defeats in the fixture.
Whereas only Phil Vickery and Simon Shaw remain from the English team of Croke Park, 11 of this Irish side started 12 long months ago, including all bar Jamie Heaslip of the pack.
"It just goes to show that it's a fickle business; things can change in a week never mind 12 months," commented Eddie O'Sullivan yesterday somewhat bitterly.
"That result will fire up England; they will have been pretty hurt on the back of that. If anything, it will get them riled up, they will want to put that right."
O'Sullivan was speaking at the squad's luxurious base in the leafy Pennyhill Park Hotel and Spa in Baghsot, Surrey; an olde-world, 123-bedroom country-house hotel with a nine-hole golf course, shooting lodge and rugby pitch.
The air was heavy and overcast, with more of the same and outbreaks of rain forecast for today.
O'Gara's captaincy seems sure to have infused fresh enthusiasm, and could well signal a volte-face from last week's game plan.
England have a strong scrum, which will provide perhaps the toughest test of Ireland's new-found strength here, but - bearing in mind Ireland's supremacy in the lineouts over the last four meetings - it's encouraging that Paul O'Connell now has another game under his belt, for he has been a force of nature in the last four meetings.
Cipriani, as Munster discovered, plays almost as deep as Wilkinson and is hard to get at, but has much more of a running threat and if he makes a confident start it could have a seismic effect on team-mates and crowd alike.
Most of all, if England match their physical intensity of Paris and the first half against Wales they will be hard to stop. Ireland must defend more in opposition faces than they've done to date.
Given an equal share of the ball, Ireland can undoubtedly hurt this English team. The selection of Iain Balshaw, part of the beaten 2001 and 2003 teams, as well as the limited Lesley Vainikolo offers plenty of tactical-kicking potential for O'Gara. As the Shane Horgan-Andrew Trimble midfield axis is hardly likely to be the creative force Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll used to be, the hope is they will use Geordan Murphy's ability to hit the line and be a playmaker-cum-strike-runner.
As O'Sullivan also noted yesterday, Murphy loves playing against England - even if he has played against them only three times, and one of those (on the wing) didn't last 10 minutes.
Were it a tight game with 20 or so to go, Ireland's chances might well have grown. In three of their four games, England have had real issues in terms of their game management in the last quarter.
There are plenty of reasons for thinking Ireland might extend their hex over the ould enemy. You go through the starting XVs and there's no reason to fear England. Equally, this run can't last forever, England have produced the more complete 80 minutes to date and at Twickenham are entitled to start as slight favourites.
Overall head-to-head: Played 120 England 69 wins, Ireland 43 wins, 8 draws.
Highest scores: England 50-18 in 2000. Ireland 43-13 in 2007.
Biggest wins: England 46-6 in 1997. Ireland 43-13 in 2007.
Last five meetings: (2007) Ireland 43 England 13; (2006) England 24 Ireland 29; (2005) Ireland 19 England 13; (2004) England 13 Ireland 19. (2003) Ireland 6 England 42.
Betting (Paddy Power): 4/9 England, 25/1 Draw, 7/4 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Ireland + 6pts) 10/11 England, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: England to win.
