Expect a backlash rather than a back-to-back

On Rugby Watching the outdoor sporting events of the last week or so in Europe, the thought occurred that if Jose Mourinho was…

On RugbyWatching the outdoor sporting events of the last week or so in Europe, the thought occurred that if Jose Mourinho was only stringing the English FA along in the hope of a big European football club making their move, then perhaps he was being paid by the Portuguese tourist board. All camera sightings of him outside the green gate to his house are invariably accompanied by brilliant sunshine. Portugal looks the only place to live in Europe at the moment.

Yet, even in the drenched conditions elsewhere, it is not the only place to watch or play sport, and for that we must thank the Heineken European Cup. Just how good is this tournament? Even in weather across the six participating countries where you wouldn't put the cat out, the rugby has been blunt, limited, tailored completely by the mud baths they've been played on, yet compelling in their own way.

Even the World Cup would struggle to throw up such a diet of twists, turns and action as the one just completed, one dimensional though it was, in the European Cup. For all the completeness and variety of Sky's coverage, the pity is that the European Cup doesn't reach parts of the European audience that it might were it free-to-air, but that's another issue.

It rains in France too, and much of their cherished rugby is played in mud, yet you'd never have thought it over the weekend. They looked a desultory lot over the weekend, registering just two wins out of six, if in part because their lightest weights, Bourgoin, were one of three sides at home.

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Those of us who fancied a bit of a surprise at good odds in Glasgow were duly rewarded as Biarritz continue to look the stalest side in Europe. Perpignan's case of travel sickness, admittedly, is acute and enduring. Of their 11 away wins in 18 away matches, nine of them have been in Italy.

That said, of all the beaten away sides over the weekend who would have had gripes about some of the decisions (and in the biggest enduring blight on this competition there would have been a few of them) Perpignan are most entitled to feel victimised. Three yellow cards and a highly contentious penalty-try courtesy of Malcolm Changleng?

One ventures Irish will feel Perpignan's wrath in the Stade Aime Giral, where Perpignan have won 21 of 13 home European Cup ties, next Saturday.

Toulouse are the form team in France, but even they shot themselves in the foot by not sufficiently adapting to the conditions in Welford Road. Again though, given any kind of drier track next Sunday in the 37,000 capacity Le Stadium, one would anticipate Leicester will find Toulouse in a vengeful mood.

And that's the difficulty with these back-to-back fixtures. The organisers recently pointed out that of the 96 double headers since this format was introduced eight seasons ago, 55 of them have seen back-to-back-wins, which equates to 57 per cent. But omit the Italian sides, and the ratio is reduced to 38 out of 79, or 48 per cent. One ventures the ratio is reduced further when one takes out back-to-back fixtures featuring one side no longer in contention, or with three defeats in three games and the ratio also comes down when a team is attempting to follow up a home win with an away win.

Thus, while none of the Irish sides drew Italian opposition for the second year running, it may possibly be helpful for Munster and Leinster that Llanelli and Edinburgh are out of contention, but one doubts it. A Celtic side out of contention is a different kettle of fish to even one from France or England. Bourgoin, obviously, or even Harlequins in their current plight, might be preferable.

Leinster and Munster have achieved back-to-back wins on five occasions apiece; a more than decent haul. Munster's victims were Colomiers, Bridgend, Viadana, the Dragons and Cardiff, while losing to Bath, Gloucester and Castres in the away legs, so Llanelli would be their most prized double scalp to date. Leinster have achieved the feat over Northampton, Newport, what were then Montferrand, Bourgoin and Agen, though even Bourgoin avenged a 53-7 defeat at Lansdowne Road a week later when they met back-to-back for two seasons running, which underlines the task Leinster face in Murrayfield next week.

The mantra from inside the Leinster camp is that their failure to obtain a bonus point last Friday in the RDS doesn't alter the fact that they were probably going to have to win all their remaining games anyway. Of course, if nothing else they have to grant Edinburgh the respect they deserve in public. Privately though, they'll surely rue opting for a shot at goal after Callum MacRae was sinbinned under the Edinburgh sticks in the 54th minute. Two tries to the good, that was the time to go for the jugular. Most probably Leinster will have to win all their games now for, together with their coughing up of a try-scoring bonus point to Toulouse, they stand third instead of level with Leicester and the French side.

Perhaps we should be a bit fairer to Edinburgh, rather than expect them to roll over from two tries down or even when out of contention next week. Andy Robinson is gradually reviving his coaching career despite a summer exodus, and while players like Ben Gissing might have been surplus to requirements at Leinster, he always felt he didn't get a fair deal from Cheika. One can be sure he'll be just as eager to prove a point next week.

Everyone will want better weather next weekend though Irish rugby players and teams know a little about rugby in the mud, the hailstones, the wind and the rain, and as Phil Davies magnanimously conceded afterwards, Munster gave a master class in wet weather rugby. But if Munster are, ideally, more of a dry track team these days, the same is even truer of Llanelli.

Given a dry day in Limerick next Sunday and a dry pitch, they can afford to swing from the hip. Curiously, they could be even more dangerous next week.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times