Philip Reidon the marked slowdown in the number of new courses being built in Ireland, and other signs that the boom times are, if not over, certainly waning

Privately, many of those who operate golf courses in Ireland will tell you that the good times, such as they were, are over. Such sentiments, though, won't - or, maybe, can't - be uttered publicly for fear that they are letting the side down, or putting bad vibes into what has been unquestionably one of the successes of the Celtic Tiger era.

In many ways, what happened in the sheltered world of Irish golf reflected those good tidings in the country during its unprecedented economic boom. Golf in Ireland - courses and those playing the sport - not only expanded, it exploded. The entire golf industry thrived. In the 1990s alone, some 110 new golf courses were constructed in Ireland, feeding a huge demand for memberships with both the Golfing Union of Ireland and the Irish Ladies Golf Union experiencing huge, record rises in affiliated memberships. In 1993 alone, no fewer than 20 new courses opened in Ireland, an extraordinarily high number given the size of this country. It is a figure that has not been matched since.

While the numbers playing golf waned in countries like England, where a recent survey showed that some 75 per cent of its 1,890 affiliated clubs had membership vacancies, the opposite applied in Ireland where long waiting lists applied to the traditional member clubs (especially in south Dublin) and many golf courses were built in the capital's commuter belt to satisfy the demand.

Now, the question is: have we reached saturation point? Is someone standing primed with a pin ready to prick the bubble? There has been a slowdown in the number of new courses being built, although a number of new developments - mainly tied in to having property on-site - are still in offing, with new projects recently earmarked for Ballymoney in Co Wexford and also at Castlemartyr in Cork. And, of course, the new Paul McGinley-designed course at Macreddin in Wicklow is well under way.

But it can't go on forever, and it would seem, if we haven't already reached saturation point in the number of golf courses, then it won't be long before we do. In a number of cases, some clubs have even reduced the price of membership in order to attract members, while others are finding it difficult to match the number of corporate green fees that were being attracted just a couple of years ago as more and more clubs go after a dwindling market.

One director of golf at a prominent course - who did not wish to be named - told me the number of corporate tee-time bookings has dropped by as much as 50 per cent in the past two years, with companies reducing the number of guests they were bringing on their outings. It was a tale that was repeated by many others, and those already in the business are wondering how those new projects coming on stream in the next year or two can find a niche in an already full market.

Indeed, the competiveness of the market can be attested to on any given day with the deals to be found on the advertising pages of The Irish Times, with many of the country's top courses offering special "early bird" green fees that are significantly lower than the standard rate.

In many ways, Ireland has been lucky, with no courses going to the wall. The simple and stark fact is that other countries which experienced golfing boom times also experienced the flip side. Germany, Japan, the United States, even England. In Japan, for instance, golfers who invested up to three million yen in buying club memberships in the late-'80s have seen those memberships drop in value to a current rate of about 300,000, a tenth of what they initially cost.

The figures for Germany make especially startling reading. From 1990 to 2000, the number of golf courses there jumped 100 per cent, from 300 to 600. Dr Falk Billion, a golf consultant based in Munich, believes this increase was due to excitement taking control of common sense, with developers "making a false estimate of the potential market" and having "exaggerated expectations". Of these 300 new developments that took place in Germany in that time, Billion estimates that 200 are currently "in the red", with about 50 of them on the brink of collapse. In his report, he was also able to pinpoint at least 17 courses that have suffered insolvency or bankruptcy in Germany in recent years.

Billion's message to anyone considering constructing a golf course is simple, "the serious business of running a golf course cannot be treated as a hobby or a passion". In short, it must be based entirely on a business plan and, in the USA, the Golf Course Builders Association of America have a certification programme in place which asks that a building company takes an exam on golf course construction.

In Britain, where it is estimated that some 400 golf courses are in trouble financially, there was also a boom in golf course development in the 1990s but this has now slowed down completely. In the early '90s there were 60 to 70 golf course openings there per year, but that has now been reduced to only six or seven a year, with little prospect of an upturn.

Apart from the huge increase in the numbers playing golf in Ireland experienced over the past decade or so, the advent of the new course developments - many with property as a vital part of the successful formula - had to do with golf tourism, with the numbers of visitors to Ireland expanding dramatically from 52,000 in 1988 to a current figure in excess of 250,000. And while the traditional links courses, especially, and others at the top-end of the tourist market continue to be almost booked out at the height of the season, there is a feeling this market too has all but reached its maximum.

If the Irish boom times were a microcosm of what happened in the US, then a look at the current state of that market is worthwhile. In the 1990s, popularity in golf soared in America, much of it fuelled in the latter part of the decade by the exploits of a young golfer by the name of Tiger Woods. In any given year in the '90s, 400 new courses a year came on stream to satisfy those newcomers to the game. Not any longer.

Last year, just 125 new courses were built . . . and, perhaps more tellingly, a record 93 courses closed in the States in 2006.

In Ireland, there are those operating golf courses who are holding their breaths, in some case praying they don't become victims of a downturn in the market that would lead to closure. It hasn't happened yet; but the rumour mill has it that several courses that have come on stream inside the past five years, fuelled by the growth of the sport in Ireland, are encountering financial difficulties.

The situation in the US is not entirely to do with falling numbers playing golf. Apparently, what has happened in the States to lead to so many closures is that entrepreneurs have realised that many golf courses sit on valuable land in prime locations and that there is more money to be made from closing the courses and building expensive homes. Sound familiar? If not as dramatic as the US, we've seen similar trends here in Ireland, with property developers moving in on the old Dún Laoghaire course (amply compensating them, it must be said, with a brand new clubhouse and top-class golf course near Enniskerry) and other developers eying the golf courses at Foxrock, Craddockstown and Douglas with a view to following the Dún Laoghaire template.

So, has saturation point been reached? In terms of golf courses, the line has very nearly been reached, with many new projects very much dependent on having property tied in with the golf course to make them viable propositions.