Forest look set for the chop

IT HAS almost an Olympian feel to it, that hiatus that follows safe passage through the final heat and precedes the final itself…

IT HAS almost an Olympian feel to it, that hiatus that follows safe passage through the final heat and precedes the final itself. Having been running, sometimes treading water, since August nine clubs, from Blackburn Rovers down, find themselves with a 10-day break before that last desperate race to Premiership security begins.

The nine have currently less than 38 points, last season's cut-off mark. Then, Manchester City were relegated with that number, although Southampton and Coventry survived on the same total because of better goal difference.

If we say 39 or 40 points might be required this time, then Blackburn and Everton, both on 36, should breast the tape at some stage over the next seven weeks. Everton, however, with only two wins in their last 14 games are a half-decent outside bet at 11 to 1 to go down - their run-in is not easy.

Nor, predictably, is that of relegation favourites Southampton. Crucially, though, of the Saints' remaining seven games, six are against teams in thee bottom nine and so even if Southampton cannot save themselves they will still have a major say in who joins them in the Nationwide League.

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Matthew Le Tissier, already one of the most discussed players of the season, therefore looms large again and Graeme Souness will need him at his mercurial best, particularly at home. Southampton have not won at The Dell since before Christmas but need to do so against West Ham and Coventry on consecutive Saturdays in April.

Those games are sandwiched by Nottingham Forest, Derby County and Sunderland away - all cliched six-pointers - and 11, possibly 13 points, looks beyond Southampton. Depriving others of points may be the Saints principal contribution and if they were to achieve that at the City Ground on Saturday week then Forest would be wearing a doomed look.

Dave Bassett's team have only, four games after that and need to get out of their present sequence of draws. As Bassett said after their second draw in three days at Middlesbrough on Monday night: "We would have preferred to win one and lose one."

Gordon Strachan would probably agree with only the first half of that statement. Since Coventry won four matches on the trot over Christmas they have gone into free-fall. There has been only one victory, over Forest, and with Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all to come, Coventry's 30-year stay in the top division is seriously threatened.

Coventry, Forest and Southampton make a plausible relegated trio, in fact, but, should one of them scramble to safety, then the head most likely to be trodden on is Sunderland's. Peter Reid's team have the image of scrappers, but four points from the last 24 is evidence to the contrary and the famous £10 million transfer kitty must go down as one of the season's great myths.

Conceivably, home wins against Southampton and Everton could see Sunderland cross the line, but if they fail in those matches then their chances at home to Liverpool and away to Newcastle and Middlesbrough do not look good. Imagine then having to go to Wimbledon on the last Sunday needing three points.

With West Ham seemingly into a lengthy stride, Derby and Middlesbrough are the next most likely candidates and as Derby already have 35 points another victory over Southampton, Forest or Coventry should guarantee them a Premiership presence, and that of Aljosa Asanovic and Igor Stimac.

To an extent Middlesbrough's future depends on what happens at a Heathrow Airport hotel this afternoon, in their appeal against the docking of three points from them, but not as much as it would have done a week ago. Then Middlesbrough, on 25 points, were bottom, but two wins and a draw followed by some nifty verbals from George Carman, QC, and Middlesbrough could be on 35 points tonight, and above Derby on goal difference.

Michael Walker

Michael Walker

Michael Walker is a contributor to The Irish Times, specialising in soccer